TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.12×

TEX @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 1 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:15p

+4 ↑

8:15p

+0 ↑

9:15p

-1 ↑

10:15p

-1 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +5

Best of game Matt Olson conv 32 · vs Quantrill ⟷ Ezequiel Duran conv 29 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 40

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +255 B ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin +330 C ●●○○○

3 Ozzie Albies +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 35

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +400 C ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +475 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Quantrill Edge +255 0.277 · 92.9 · 11.2% 30.0% 33.0% F B O B 72

· TEX Jake Burger vs Sale Edge +400 0.188 · 89.9 · 8.1% 28.6% 25.2% F B O C 53

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Sale Edge +475 0.210 · 89.1 · 7.1% 25.0% 27.5% F B O C 52

· TEX Joc Pederson COOL vs Sale — 0.231 · 91.9 · 8.4% 14.3% 21.1% F B O C 56

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Quantrill Edge +330 0.183 · 91.4 · 11.8% 10.0% 13.2% F B O C 59

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Quantrill +425 0.141 · 90.3 · 9.5% 10.0% 9.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Sale Edge +750 0.166 · 88.5 · 6.2% 37.5% 19.7% F B O D 48

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Sale — 0.041 · 87.2 · 2.1% 25.0% 11.9% F B O D 30

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Sale +700 0.166 · 92.6 · 9.1% 12.5% 10.3% F B O D 48

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Quantrill Edge +475 0.169 · 87.2 · 6.0% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Quantrill +850 0.150 · 86.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 43

· TEX Josh Jung HOT vs Sale Edge +575 0.151 · 90.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 42

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Quantrill Edge +575 0.121 · 87.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 44

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Sale +950 0.139 · 87.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.6% ← leak BRK 39.4% OFF 12.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L

15.6% 9.6% 4.5% 11.5% C 56 —

Jake Burger R Edge

9.2% 12.1% 11.1% 10.5% C 53 +400

Wyatt Langford R Edge

6.8% 11.4% 8.3% 8.3% C 52 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

9.2% 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% D 48 +750

Brandon Nimmo L

10.5% 18.9% 15.4% 13.5% D 48 +700

140

Josh Jung R Edge

8.3% 3.2% 3.7% 6.2% D 42 +575

148

Evan Carter L

8.9% 5.4% 0.0% 6.6% D 41 +950

200

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.7% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.6% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 77.3% ← leak OFF 18.1% BRK 4.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.1% 12.5% 9.8% 14.4% B 72 +255

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

16.0% 0.0% 22.2% 15.3% C 59 +330

Austin Riley R

12.2% 3.3% 12.5% 11.2% C 50 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.0% 3.3% 1.1% 4.0% D 48 +475

125

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.4% 2.9% 6.5% 5.8% D 44 +575

126

Mauricio Dubon R

3.7% 3.9% 7.0% 4.7% D 43 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (77.3% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Langford Duran Osuna Olson

Legend

attack side — vs Quantrill fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Matt Olson +255 · 72

Jake Burger +400 · 53

Wyatt Langford +475 · 52

Ezequiel Duran +750 · 48

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 1 mph out 75°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

84°F

7:15p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

83°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · in

81°F

9:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

10:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 75°F, wind 1 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 56 C — COOL 42 0.231 91.9 8.4% 23.5% 392 19.7% 14.3% 21.1% 16

2 Jake Burger 53 C +400 WARM 57 0.188 89.9 8.1% 29.4%vs LHP 400 15.1% 28.6% 25.2% 16

3 Wyatt Langford 52 C +475 WARM 64 0.210 89.1 7.1% 27.3%vs LHP 401 16.1% 25.0% 27.5% 12

4 Ezequiel Duran 48 D +750 WARM 91 0.166 88.5 6.2% 18.2%vs LHP 385 13.2% 37.5% 19.7% 21

5 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +700 · 97 0.166 92.6 9.1% 11.8%vs LHP 409 9.4% 12.5% 10.3% 21

6 Josh Jung 42 D +575 HOT 140 0.151 90.5 6.3% 16.7%vs LHP 386 10.6% 0.0% 10.4% 11

7 Evan Carter 41 D +950 COOL 148 0.139 87.7 6.5% 10.1% 377 9.1% 0.0% 8.4% 13

8 Alejandro Osuna 30 D — WARM 200 0.041 87.2 2.1% 3.3% 364 2.9% 25.0% 11.9% 11

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +255 WARM 6 0.277 92.9 11.2% 32.7%vs RHP 408 21.1% 30.0% 33.0% 26

2 Drake Baldwin 59 C +330 · 28 0.183 91.4 11.8% 22.9%vs RHP 406 17.6% 10.0% 13.2% 32

3 Austin Riley 50 C +425 COOL 82 0.141 90.3 9.5% 13.8%vs RHP 404 7.4% 10.0% 9.7% 22

4 Ozzie Albies 48 D +475 · 96 0.169 87.2 6.0% 12.7%vs RHP 383 12.6% 10.0% 10.7% 28

5 Dominic Smith 44 D +575 COOL 125 0.121 87.8 7.4% 13.0%vs RHP 390 6.8% 0.0% 8.4% 17

6 Mauricio Dubon 43 D +850 COOL 126 0.150 86.3 6.6% 14.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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