13
HRs allowed
5.7%
HR rate (pool)
13.1%
Overall HR/FB
2.99
FIP
3.04
xFIP
-0.06
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
50
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 50th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
13.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.3 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 113.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chris Sale.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
40.8%
84.6
27.8°
9
-1.3
Slider Breaking
40.5%
78.7
4.0°
0
-1.4
Changeup Offspeed
10.3%
85.4
1.4°
2
-0.7
Sinker Hard
8.3%
80.1
-0.2°
1
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups228
HRs allowed (pool)13
Pool HR rate5.7%
Pool HR/game day0.48
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB13.1% 50
HR/9—
FIP2.99 12
xFIP3.04
FIP − xFIP-0.06 40
Barrel% allowed13.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 40.8% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle27.8°
HRs allowed9
Pitches1172
Slider
Breaking · 40.5% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.7 mph
Avg launch angle4.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches1163
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.3% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches297
Sinker
Hard · 8.3% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle-0.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches239
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chris Sale.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
13 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.3 EV · 399 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
7
1
102.3
2026-09-11
9
0
104.3
2026-09-04
9
1
108.2
2026-08-27
8
0
101.5
2026-08-21
9
0
108.4
2026-08-14
9
1
106.2
2026-08-08
8
1
111.1
2026-07-29
7
0
112.1
2026-07-28
7
0
—
2026-07-23
8
1
108.2
2026-07-17
8
0
106.0
2026-07-10
9
0
105.6
2026-07-04
8
1
107.1
2026-06-28
8
0
104.4
2026-06-20
8
0
110.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chris Sale isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Chris Sale isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
110
8
7%
9
2
22%
18
1
6%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
14
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Chris Sale
How many home runs has Chris Sale allowed this season?
Chris Sale has allowed 13 home runs across 27 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Chris Sale?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Chris Sale include Kyle Schwarber (3), Gavin Sheets (2), Alec Bohm (1) and 17 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.