8
HRs allowed
5.8%
HR rate (pool)
14.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.39
FIP
3.23
xFIP
+0.16
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
68
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 68th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
60.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.4 EV · 398 ft
max EV allowed 113.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Chris Sale.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.9%
84.2
27.2°
7
-0.5
Slider Breaking
39.4%
77.2
6.3°
0
-1.3
Changeup Offspeed
12.0%
84.7
2.5°
1
-0.9
Sinker Hard
8.7%
77.5
-7.5°
0
-2.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups139
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate5.8%
Pool HR/game day0.5
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB14.6% 68
HR/9—
FIP3.39 26
xFIP3.23
FIP − xFIP+0.16 57
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed60.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 39.9% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle27.2°
HRs allowed7
Pitches667
Slider
Breaking · 39.4% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches659
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.0% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.7 mph
Avg launch angle2.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches200
Sinker
Hard · 8.7% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.5 mph
Avg launch angle-7.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches145
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Chris Sale.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.4 EV · 398 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
0
105.6
2026-07-04
8
1
107.1
2026-06-28
8
0
104.4
2026-06-20
8
0
110.9
2026-06-10
7
0
105.3
2026-06-04
9
0
107.7
2026-05-28
9
0
104.5
2026-05-20
9
0
106.5
2026-05-14
9
1
107.6
2026-05-08
9
1
107.2
2026-05-02
9
0
109.0
2026-04-26
9
1
106.1
2026-04-18
9
0
103.4
2026-04-12
9
1
107.0
2026-04-06
9
2
113.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Chris Sale isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.