TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TOR

Playable air · 1.07×

CWS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 33 · vs Kay ⟷ Tristan Peters conv 27 · vs Miles → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 91

1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 George Springer +425 C ●●●○○

3 Ernie Clement +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Spencer Miles RHP · TOR

leak 84

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tristan Peters +850 D ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery +305 C ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 14.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Kay Edge +280 0.225 · 91.5 · 11.0% 33.3% 31.8% F B O C+ 66

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Miles Edge +305 0.242 · 89.2 · 8.3% 22.2% 29.3% F B O C 58

· TOR George Springer HOT vs Kay Edge +425 0.164 · 88.4 · 8.1% 25.0% 18.9% F B O C 51

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Miles +400 0.242 · 90.6 · 8.8% 22.2% 17.6% F B O C 57

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Miles Edge +280 0.296 · 94.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 27.3% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Miles Edge +850 0.179 · 87.2 · 5.0% 33.3% 19.8% F B O D 44

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Miles Edge +750 0.132 · 87.5 · 5.9% 14.3% 8.9% F B O D 39

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Kay Edge +625 0.134 · 85.2 · 4.5% 11.1% 9.2% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Kay — 0.113 · 86.7 · 3.1% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 39

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.166 · 88.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Miles Edge +500 0.182 · 89.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 46

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Kay +700 0.143 · 86.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Kay — 0.132 · 86.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Miles — 0.115 · 87.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Miles — 0.038 · 89.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.6% BRK 43.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.7% 15.6% 19.7% C+ 60 +280

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.7% 13.2% 13.4% C 58 +305

Miguel Vargas R

17.2% 11.8% 15.0% C 57 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

104

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.6% 5.9% 10.1% D 46 +500

115

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.6% 4.3% 5.2% D 44 +850

159

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.2% 7.3% 6.8% D 39 +750

190

Chase Meidroth R

4.5% 6.0% 4.5% D 34 —

205

Luisangel Acuna R

5.4% 5.6% 4.7% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Miles's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.0% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

16.0% 9.8% 17.6% 14.5% C+ 66 +280

George Springer R Edge

9.5% 6.1% 8.7% 8.3% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.7% 21.1% 13.0% 7.8% D 48 —

123

Daulton Varsho L

7.9% 1.6% 6.7% 5.9% D 44 +700

146

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% D 41 +625

154

Andres Gimenez L

3.0% 2.7% 6.1% 3.3% D 39 —

162

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.0% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Vargas Peters Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Kazuma Okamoto +280 · 66

Colson Montgomery +305 · 58

George Springer +425 · 51

Tristan Peters +850 · 44

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:15p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Spencer Miles · RHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 60 C+ +280 COOL 22 0.296 94.1 10.0% 40.0%vs RHP 409 17.1% 0.0% 27.3% 4

2 Colson Montgomery 58 C +305 COOL 30 0.242 89.2 8.3% 25.4%vs RHP 398 25.7% 22.2% 29.3% 26

3 Miguel Vargas 57 C +400 WARM 38 0.242 90.6 8.8% 15.8%vs RHP 389 21.8% 22.2% 17.6% 28

4 Andrew Benintendi 46 D +500 COOL 104 0.182 89.2 7.0% 17.9%vs RHP 389 15.0% 0.0% 13.0% 15

5 Tristan Peters 44 D +850 HOT 115 0.179 87.2 5.0% 11.8%vs RHP 377 9.1% 33.3% 19.8% 20

6 Sam Antonacci 39 D +750 COOL 159 0.132 87.5 5.9% 13.3%vs RHP 403 9.8% 14.3% 8.9% 24

7 Chase Meidroth 34 D — COOL 190 0.115 87.7 4.7% 14.3%vs RHP 376 6.3% 0.0% 6.5% 25

8 Luisangel Acuna 29 D — WARM 205 0.038 89.8 4.5% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 9

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.26 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 66 C+ +280 · 10 0.225 91.5 11.0% 27.8%vs LHP 396 21.1% 33.3% 31.8% 27

2 George Springer 51 C +425 HOT 72 0.164 88.4 8.1% 11.1%vs LHP 394 10.1% 25.0% 18.9% 10

3 Brandon Valenzuela 48 D — COOL 93 0.166 88.0 7.9% 28.6%vs LHP 397 9.4% 0.0% 14.0% 9

4 Daulton Varsho 44 D +700 COOL 123 0.143 86.0 6.9% 16.7%vs LHP 386 7.6% 0.0% 9.7% 28

5 Ernie Clement 41 D +625 COOL 146 0.134 85.2 4.5% 11.5%vs LHP 375 9.0% 11.1% 9.2% 37

6 Andres Gimenez 39 D — COOL 154 0.132 86.4 5.3% 20.0%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 20

7 Nathan Lukes 39 D — COOL 162 0.113 86.7 3.1% 11.1% 378 6.7% 11.1% 8.2% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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