21
HRs allowed
9.6%
HR rate (pool)
20.3%
Overall HR/FB
5.48
FIP
5.1
xFIP
+0.38
FIP − xFIP gap
#10
Leakiest SP today (of 24, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.8 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 113.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 58.0%
BRK 28.3%
OFF 13.7%
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 4
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (58.0% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
23.1%
81.6
32.0°
4
-0.3
Sweeper Breaking
22.2%
80.3
16.1°
2
+0.9
Cutter Hard
17.7%
81.1
20.3°
3
-0.1
Sinker Hard
17.2%
85.6
5.7°
6
+0.1
Changeup Offspeed
13.7%
83.5
-3.7°
2
+1.4
Slider Breaking
6.1%
84.2
-0.4°
1
+1.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups218
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate9.6%
Pool HR/game day0.81
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB20.3% 87
HR/9—
FIP5.48 89
xFIP5.1
FIP − xFIP+0.38 71
Barrel% allowed19.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 23.1% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle32.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches556
Sweeper
Breaking · 22.2% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches535
Cutter
Hard · 17.7% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches426
Sinker
Hard · 17.2% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle5.7°
HRs allowed6
Pitches416
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.7% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle-3.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches331
Slider
Breaking · 6.1% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle-0.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches148
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.8 EV · 389 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
9
3
110.2
2026-08-20
9
0
109.9
2026-08-15
8
1
105.1
2026-08-08
8
1
106.1
2026-08-02
9
1
111.4
2026-07-28
8
0
108.2
2026-07-22
8
0
104.1
2026-07-17
7
2
105.1
2026-07-09
7
1
108.6
2026-07-03
9
0
98.0
2026-06-28
8
0
110.4
2026-06-22
8
0
106.1
2026-06-17
7
2
107.8
2026-06-12
8
0
107.8
2026-06-11
8
0
—
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Minute Maid Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.165
Wind
10 mph from SE
Temp
91°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
10
91°
+15
8:10p
9
89°
+15
9:10p
9
87°
+15
10:10p
8
86°
+14
11:10p
8
84°
+14
+15
Strong green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 9 mph from SE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
315ft
short
CF
409ft
deep
RF
326ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
341ft
2 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
319ft
10 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 314 ft
HRs allowed avg 389 ft · n=21
Crawford Boxes short in LF
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
118
8
7%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
7
2
29%
7
2
29%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Anthony Kay
Is Anthony Kay likely to give up a home run tonight?
Anthony Kay pitches tonight (CWS @ HOU at Minute Maid Park). This season he has allowed 21 home runs across 26 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Anthony Kay allowed this season?
Anthony Kay has allowed 21 home runs across 26 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Anthony Kay?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Anthony Kay include Adolis García (1), Ben Williamson (1), Brandon Marsh (1) and 18 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.