27
HRs allowed
10.0%
HR rate (pool)
19.9%
Overall HR/FB
5.35
FIP
4.99
xFIP
+0.36
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.2 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 115.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Anthony Kay.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
23.5%
80.3
17.2°
2
+0.5
Fastball Hard
21.8%
81.8
30.8°
5
+0.1
Sinker Hard
18.4%
85.5
3.7°
6
-0.1
Cutter Hard
16.5%
81.9
20.3°
4
+0.6
Changeup Offspeed
14.0%
83.6
-3.1°
2
+0.9
Slider Breaking
5.8%
83.5
-0.8°
2
+2.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups270
HRs allowed (pool)27
Pool HR rate10.0%
Pool HR/game day0.84
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB19.9% 84
HR/9—
FIP5.35 88
xFIP4.99
FIP − xFIP+0.36 70
Barrel% allowed20.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-18
Sweeper
Breaking · 23.5% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle17.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches687
Fastball
Hard · 21.8% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle30.8°
HRs allowed5
Pitches638
Sinker
Hard · 18.4% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle3.7°
HRs allowed6
Pitches538
Cutter
Hard · 16.5% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches482
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.0% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle-3.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches409
Slider
Breaking · 5.8% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle-0.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches170
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Anthony Kay.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
27 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.2 EV · 390 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-27
9
1
110.0
2026-09-22
9
2
109.9
2026-09-16
9
1
110.6
2026-09-11
8
0
115.4
2026-09-05
8
1
105.8
2026-08-31
9
1
109.5
2026-08-25
9
3
110.2
2026-08-20
9
0
109.9
2026-08-15
8
1
105.1
2026-08-08
8
1
106.1
2026-08-02
9
1
111.4
2026-07-28
8
0
108.2
2026-07-22
8
0
104.1
2026-07-17
7
2
105.1
2026-07-09
7
1
108.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Anthony Kay isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Anthony Kay isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
135
10
7%
18
2
11%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
7
2
29%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 15. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Anthony Kay
How many home runs has Anthony Kay allowed this season?
Anthony Kay has allowed 27 home runs across 32 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Anthony Kay?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Anthony Kay include Adolis García (1), Ben Williamson (1), Brandon Marsh (1) and 24 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.