13
HRs allowed
8.6%
HR rate (pool)
20.8%
Overall HR/FB
5.72
FIP
5.3
xFIP
+0.42
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
89
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 89th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.3 EV · 393 ft
max EV allowed 113.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Anthony Kay.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
24.0%
82.2
31.3°
3
+0.1
Sweeper Breaking
22.0%
80.0
17.2°
1
+0.8
Sinker Hard
17.6%
85.0
6.0°
5
+0.4
Cutter Hard
17.4%
81.2
24.0°
2
+0.7
Changeup Offspeed
14.2%
83.5
-3.5°
1
+0.1
Slider Breaking
4.9%
84.8
-0.8°
0
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups152
HRs allowed (pool)13
Pool HR rate8.6%
Pool HR/game day0.72
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB20.8% 89
HR/9—
FIP5.72 91
xFIP5.3
FIP − xFIP+0.42 71
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 24.0% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle31.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches409
Sweeper
Breaking · 22.0% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.0 mph
Avg launch angle17.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches374
Sinker
Hard · 17.6% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle6.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches299
Cutter
Hard · 17.4% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle24.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches296
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.2% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle-3.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches241
Slider
Breaking · 4.9% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle-0.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches83
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Anthony Kay.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
13 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.3 EV · 393 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
7
1
108.6
2026-07-03
9
0
98.0
2026-06-28
8
0
110.4
2026-06-22
8
0
106.1
2026-06-17
7
2
107.8
2026-06-12
8
0
107.8
2026-06-11
8
0
—
2026-06-05
7
2
109.5
2026-05-30
9
1
105.1
2026-05-25
9
1
107.2
2026-05-19
9
0
107.2
2026-05-14
9
0
106.8
2026-05-09
9
0
106.9
2026-05-03
9
2
107.8
2026-04-27
9
1
108.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Anthony Kay isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.