TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.18×

SD @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph cross 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+10 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

+10 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +10 FIT

Best of game Manny Machado conv 23 · vs Lugo ⟷ Lane Thomas conv 18 · vs King → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 87

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +425 C ●●●●○

2 Ty France +625 C ●●○○○

3 Xander Bogaerts +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 60

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lane Thomas — D ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone +700 C ●●○○○

3 Nick Loftin +1000 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Lugo +425 0.210 · 90.1 · 10.1% 20.0% 26.7% F B O C 57

· SD Ty France vs Lugo +625 0.213 · 91.5 · 10.4% 10.0% 16.0% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs King Edge +700 0.198 · 93.0 · 10.8% 11.1% 13.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs King — 0.151 · 89.2 · 7.1% 22.2% 14.3% F B O D 44

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs King +1000 0.164 · 88.0 · 6.5% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 41

· KC Salvador Perez vs King +625 0.151 · 89.3 · 8.7% 12.5% 9.1% F B O D 44

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs King Edge +950 0.121 · 88.4 · 6.9% 12.5% 7.0% F B O D 37

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Lugo +850 0.108 · 88.1 · 7.9% 10.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Lugo Edge +750 0.131 · 89.4 · 9.4% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 43

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Lugo Edge +525 0.209 · 88.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 49

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs King Edge +625 0.181 · 90.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 46

· SD Miguel Andujar COOL vs Lugo +850 0.153 · 88.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs King Edge +650 0.119 · 88.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· KC Michael Massey vs King Edge +850 0.163 · 90.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Lugo Edge +950 0.080 · 87.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 36.0% OFF 8.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Manny Machado R

13.0% 6.7% 5.7% 10.2% C 57 +425

Ty France R

10.7% 10.7% 8.7% 10.4% C 52 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.2% 4.8% 4.3% 7.9% D 49 +525

145

Jackson Merrill L Edge

9.9% 8.8% 6.8% 8.9% D 43 +750

170

Xander Bogaerts R

8.3% 3.2% 4.3% 6.7% D 39 +850

183

Miguel Andujar R

3.7% 4.9% 3.7% 4.1% D 37 +850

196

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

6.8% 5.3% 5.0% 6.2% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.3% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 24.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

14.6% 11.4% 16.5% 14.6% C 51 +700

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

112

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.9% 8.6% 8.6% 9.2% D 46 +625

128

Lane Thomas R

8.7% 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% D 44 —

135

Salvador Perez R

13.3% 11.4% 6.1% 10.2% D 44 +625

156

Nick Loftin R

7.1% 0.0% 2.8% 5.1% D 41 +1000

158

Michael Massey L Edge

8.7% 2.9% 4.8% 6.8% D 41 +850

179

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

8.8% 7.7% 3.5% 7.3% D 38 +650

190

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.7% 0.0% 7.4% 5.9% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.3% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado France Thomas

Legend

attack side — vs Lugo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph cross 88°F open

+10

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

7:10p · peak

+10

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

8:10p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

9:10p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

10:10p

+10

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 88°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 57 C +425 · 36 0.210 90.1 10.1% 28.8%vs RHP 395 20.0% 20.0% 26.7% 23

2 Ty France 52 C +625 · 70 0.213 91.5 10.4% 28.6%vs RHP 391 15.0% 10.0% 16.0% 22

3 Gavin Sheets 49 D +525 COOL 89 0.209 88.2 8.6% 34.1%vs RHP 397 12.0% 0.0% 14.8% 27

4 Jackson Merrill 43 D +750 COOL 145 0.131 89.4 9.4% 14.3%vs RHP 406 11.2% 10.0% 7.5% 29

5 Xander Bogaerts 39 D +850 WARM 170 0.108 88.1 7.9% 19.1%vs RHP 396 9.1% 10.0% 8.9% 22

6 Miguel Andujar 37 D +850 COOL 183 0.153 88.3 6.4% 14.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 12

7 Jake Cronenworth 36 D +950 · 196 0.080 87.6 8.0% 16.7%vs RHP 389 2.1% 0.0% 7.7% 22

vs Michael King · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 51 C +700 COOL 75 0.198 93.0 10.8% 28.6%vs RHP 414 12.9% 11.1% 13.7% 30

2 Carter Jensen 46 D +625 COOL 112 0.181 90.8 8.7% 18.0%vs RHP 393 15.3% 0.0% 11.1% 13

3 Lane Thomas 44 D — HOT 128 0.151 89.2 7.1% 16.7%vs RHP 411 13.8% 22.2% 14.3% 26

4 Salvador Perez 44 D +625 WARM 135 0.151 89.3 8.7% 15.4%vs RHP 395 13.3% 12.5% 9.1% 25

5 Nick Loftin 41 D +1000 COOL 156 0.164 88.0 6.5% 12.5%vs RHP 397 10.3% 14.3% 9.4% 24

6 Michael Massey 41 D +850 · 158 0.163 90.5 7.4% 9.8%vs RHP 398 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% 19

7 Vinnie Pasquantino 38 D +650 WARM 179 0.119 88.6 7.5% 13.3%vs RHP 395 9.0% 0.0% 9.5% 5

8 Isaac Collins 37 D +950 COOL 190 0.121 88.4 6.9% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.2% 12.5% 7.0% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.