TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.37×

MIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:05p

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8:05p

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9:05p

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10:05p

+13 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +13 FIT

Best of game Michael Conforto conv 27 · vs Ober ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 25 · vs Rea → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 91

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Michael Conforto +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +325 C+ ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +280 C ●●●○○

FADE Colin Rea RHP · CHC

leak 67

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +475 C+ ●●●●○

2 Royce Lewis +525 C ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach +700 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Ober Edge +425 0.260 · 92.4 · 11.0% 25.0% 29.7% F B O C+ 60

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Rea Edge +475 0.245 · 92.6 · 11.3% 22.2% 27.8% F B O C+ 65

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Rea +525 0.175 · 89.1 · 11.5% 22.2% 20.6% F B O C 57

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Ober Edge +325 0.236 · 90.2 · 10.0% 11.1% 31.2% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Ober +280 0.196 · 89.0 · 9.3% 22.2% 19.8% F B O C 56

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Rea Edge +700 0.164 · 87.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 17.0% F B O C 50

· MIN Josh Bell vs Rea Edge +525 0.177 · 89.9 · 10.4% 11.1% 19.1% F B O C 54

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Rea +425 0.246 · 91.2 · 12.3% 0.0% 23.6% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Ober Edge +350 0.215 · 89.6 · 10.8% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 58

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Ober +500 0.194 · 89.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 52

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Ober Edge +330 0.160 · 88.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Ober +625 0.129 · 88.4 · 7.9% 25.0% 12.7% F B O D 46

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Ober +500 0.145 · 87.9 · 6.3% 22.2% 11.7% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Rea +800 0.098 · 84.6 · 5.6% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 37

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Rea Edge +575 0.181 · 88.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 48

· MIN Tristan Gray vs Rea Edge +525 0.097 · 88.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Ober +650 0.093 · 86.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.2% ← leak BRK 25.4% OFF 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.0% 19.6% 12.2% 12.7% C+ 65 +475

Ryan Jeffers R

17.8% 12.1% 8.3% 15.3% C+ 60 +425

Royce Lewis R

14.7% 12.0% 9.1% 13.2% C 57 +525

Josh Bell S Edge

10.3% 15.0% 6.3% 10.4% C 54 +525

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.9% 8.5% 3.2% 8.0% C 50 +700

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.3% 1.2% 1.4% 4.1% D 48 +575

152

Tristan Gray L Edge

8.9% 5.6% 0.0% 5.9% D 42 +525

188

Luke Keaschall R

3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 3.4% D 37 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.2% usage) carries Rea's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

OFF 36.4% FB 34.8% BRK 28.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.5% 9.0% 12.5% 10.5% C+ 63 +325

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.5% 12.5% 20.0% 13.0% C+ 60 +425

Ian Happ S Edge

3.4% 15.0% 20.0% 13.1% C 58 +350

Seiya Suzuki R

5.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.3% C 56 +280

Dansby Swanson R

14.3% 8.1% 4.1% 7.6% C 52 +500

Michael Busch L Edge

3.2% 12.2% 6.8% 9.9% C 50 +330

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

111

Carson Kelly R

6.2% 8.7% 3.8% 7.1% D 46 +625

121

Alex Bregman R

6.7% 4.4% 6.2% 5.1% D 45 +500

218

Nico Hoerner R

0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 1.1% D 32 +650

Read the columns: no single family leads Ober's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Crow-Armstrong Conforto Suzuki Kelly Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Michael Conforto +425 · 60

Kody Clemens +475 · 65

Royce Lewis +525 · 57

Seiya Suzuki +280 · 56

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 91°F open

+13

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:05p · peak

+13

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

8:05p

+13

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

9:05p

+13

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

10:05p

+13

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 91°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Colin Rea · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 65 C+ +475 · 12 0.245 92.6 11.3% 22.2%vs RHP 390 18.9% 22.2% 27.8% 25

2 Ryan Jeffers 60 C+ +425 COOL 25 0.246 91.2 12.3% 25.9%vs RHP 402 16.3% 0.0% 23.6% 7

3 Royce Lewis 57 C +525 WARM 41 0.175 89.1 11.5% 20.5%vs RHP 396 18.2% 22.2% 20.6% 25

4 Josh Bell 54 C +525 WARM 56 0.177 89.9 10.4% 21.3%vs RHP 404 11.3% 11.1% 19.1% 26

5 Trevor Larnach 50 C +700 WARM 81 0.164 87.4 8.7% 12.2%vs RHP 399 7.7% 25.0% 17.0% 22

6 Brooks Lee 48 D +575 COOL 99 0.181 88.0 6.3% 19.6%vs RHP 367 14.9% 0.0% 12.3% 26

7 Tristan Gray 42 D +525 WARM 152 0.097 88.5 7.9% 12.5%vs RHP 389 6.1% 0.0% 10.1% 7

8 Luke Keaschall 37 D +800 COOL 188 0.098 84.6 5.6% 7.8%vs RHP 370 4.9% 11.1% 8.0% 24

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 63 C+ +325 COOL 16 0.236 90.2 10.0% 23.5%vs RHP 393 19.8% 11.1% 31.2% 20

2 Michael Conforto 60 C+ +425 COOL 23 0.260 92.4 11.0% 16.7%vs RHP 401 9.7% 25.0% 29.7% 12

3 Ian Happ 58 C +350 COOL 33 0.215 89.6 10.8% 25.0%vs RHP 402 18.9% 0.0% 17.1% 22

4 Seiya Suzuki 56 C +280 WARM 48 0.196 89.0 9.3% 21.3%vs RHP 408 14.7% 22.2% 19.8% 27

5 Dansby Swanson 52 C +500 COOL 73 0.194 89.9 8.5% 19.6%vs RHP 403 13.8% 0.0% 12.8% 24

6 Michael Busch 50 C +330 COOL 84 0.160 88.3 9.7% 13.9%vs RHP 403 12.4% 0.0% 11.1% 27

7 Carson Kelly 46 D +625 WARM 111 0.129 88.4 7.9% 9.5%vs RHP 416 7.4% 25.0% 12.7% 17

8 Alex Bregman 45 D +500 COOL 121 0.145 87.9 6.3% 16.7%vs RHP 392 8.5% 22.2% 11.7% 32

9 Nico Hoerner 32 D +650 WARM 218 0.093 86.0 2.9% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.2% 0.0% 6.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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