21
HRs allowed
12.8%
HR rate (pool)
14.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.39
FIP
4.2
xFIP
+0.19
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
64
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 64th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
26.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 112.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Colin Rea.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.2%
83.4
26.8°
8
+0.5
Changeup Offspeed
18.3%
83.7
-0.2°
0
-1.7
Slider Breaking
11.0%
82.6
11.4°
5
-1.0
Sweeper Breaking
8.9%
80.4
23.3°
1
-1.9
Sinker Hard
8.7%
82.8
15.2°
4
+1.0
Curveball Breaking
5.5%
84.0
0.6°
1
+4.5
Cutter Hard
5.3%
85.3
23.1°
1
+2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups164
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate12.8%
Pool HR/game day1.11
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.5% 64
HR/9—
FIP4.39 64
xFIP4.2
FIP − xFIP+0.19 60
Barrel% allowed26.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 42.2% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle26.8°
HRs allowed8
Pitches903
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.3% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle-0.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches391
Slider
Breaking · 11.0% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches236
Sweeper
Breaking · 8.9% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches191
Sinker
Hard · 8.7% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle15.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches187
Curveball
Breaking · 5.5% usage
+4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle0.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches118
Cutter
Hard · 5.3% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle23.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches113
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Colin Rea.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 394 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-02
8
1
110.9
2026-07-28
9
0
105.4
2026-07-22
9
2
105.9
2026-07-17
8
1
107.8
2026-07-08
9
1
106.2
2026-07-01
7
0
103.7
2026-06-26
8
2
109.3
2026-06-20
8
2
107.3
2026-06-09
8
2
106.6
2026-06-03
9
0
112.5
2026-05-28
9
1
106.6
2026-05-23
9
1
105.6
2026-05-17
9
2
104.3
2026-05-12
9
2
107.7
2026-05-06
9
2
104.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Colin Rea isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Colin Rea isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
85
10
12%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 10. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Colin Rea
How many home runs has Colin Rea allowed this season?
Colin Rea has allowed 21 home runs across 19 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Colin Rea?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Colin Rea include Bryan Reynolds (2), Austin Riley (1), Brendan Donovan (1) and 33 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.