17
HRs allowed
13.1%
HR rate (pool)
14.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.24
FIP
4.1
xFIP
+0.14
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
64
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 64th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.4 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 112.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Colin Rea.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.0%
83.7
25.1°
5
+1.2
Changeup Offspeed
17.5%
82.1
-1.1°
0
-1.9
Slider Breaking
11.2%
82.1
13.3°
4
-1.1
Sinker Hard
9.3%
84.1
15.5°
4
+0.9
Sweeper Breaking
9.2%
79.7
23.8°
0
-1.9
Cutter Hard
5.9%
85.0
20.3°
0
+1.5
Curveball Breaking
5.0%
82.3
-1.5°
1
+5.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups130
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate13.1%
Pool HR/game day1.13
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.2% 64
HR/9—
FIP4.24 57
xFIP4.1
FIP − xFIP+0.14 56
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 42.0% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle25.1°
HRs allowed5
Pitches695
Changeup
Offspeed · 17.5% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle-1.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches289
Slider
Breaking · 11.2% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle13.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches186
Sinker
Hard · 9.3% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle15.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches154
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.2% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle23.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches153
Cutter
Hard · 5.9% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches97
Curveball
Breaking · 5.0% usage
+5.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle-1.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches82
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Colin Rea.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.4 EV · 395 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
1
106.2
2026-07-01
7
0
103.7
2026-06-26
8
2
109.3
2026-06-20
8
2
107.3
2026-06-09
8
2
106.6
2026-06-03
9
0
112.5
2026-05-28
9
1
106.6
2026-05-23
9
1
105.6
2026-05-17
9
2
104.3
2026-05-12
9
2
107.7
2026-05-06
9
2
104.1
2026-05-01
9
1
109.3
2026-04-25
9
1
110.1
2026-04-20
9
0
106.4
2026-04-08
9
0
106.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Colin Rea isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.