Tristan Gray
LHB1
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
8.3%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
26.9%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
88.9
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.162
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#35
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
Today's Matchup ?Live matchup data for today's game. Pitcher stats, report flags, park factor, and weather all feed into the model score.
MIN @ PIT · 1:35p
Braxton Ashcraft
(RHP)
HR/FB 15.4% ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. Higher = more HR-prone. League avg is ~12%.
HR/9 0.79 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. Higher = pitcher gives up more longballs.
FIP 3.21 ?Fielding Independent Pitching — isolates pitcher skill from defense. Higher FIP = more HR-vulnerable.
🔄 Splits Edge
#248
⚪ D
PNC Park
Park × 0.824 ?Park factor for this stadium. Values above 1.0 boost HR probability; below 1.0 suppress it. Based on multi-year park HR data.
HR Profile
?Statcast-style HR metrics for this batter — same fields the model scores on. Red = elite, orange = above average, blue = below average, grey = no data.
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.112
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
21th pctile
89.9
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
60th pctile
6.8%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
28th pctile
16.7%
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball. >18% elite, league avg ~12%.
76th pctile
390
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
36th pctile
8.3%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
0.0%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
6.8%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
13th pctile
15
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
12
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
1
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#101.2
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend ?Daily model rank over time. The Y-axis is inverted — lower on the chart = better rank. Green dots mark days this batter hit a home run.
All Appearances ?Complete log of every time this batter appeared on the scored slate. Includes model rank, tier, form trend, and whether they went yard. Rows highlighted in green = HR days.
| Date | Rank | Pitcher | B/P | HR/FB | Tier | Form | WT | BP | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | #235 | Mitch Keller | L/R * | 7.4% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-05-28 | #67 | Davis Martin | L/R * | 9.1% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-27 | #112 | David Sandlin | L/R * | 9.8% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-26 | #118 | Sean Burke | L/R * | 9.3% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-20 | #87 | Mike Burrows | L/R * | 13.0% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | — | · | |
| 2026-05-19 | #97 | Jason Alexander | L/R * | 7.2% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | · | |
| 2026-05-16 | #118 | Logan Henderson | L/R * | 7.5% | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-04-24 | #86 | Drew Rasmussen | L/R | 33.8% | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | 🔥 | · | |
| 2026-04-23 | #53 | Christian Scott | L/R | 24.4% | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | ⚠️ | ||
| 2026-04-19 | #150 | Brady Singer | L/R | 23.2% | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | — | · | |
| 2026-04-10 | #57 | Patrick Corbin | L/ | 16.9% | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | ✅ | · | |
| 2026-03-29 | #35 | Shane Baz | L/R | 16.2% | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | ⚠️ | · |