27
HRs allowed
13.8%
HR rate (pool)
15.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.47
FIP
4.74
xFIP
-0.27
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
66
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 66th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.1 EV · 406 ft
max EV allowed 115.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Ober.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
33.2%
81.2
12.4°
7
+1.2
Fastball Hard
31.3%
85.4
33.8°
10
+0.8
Slider Breaking
17.8%
84.2
23.1°
3
-0.6
Sweeper Breaking
12.6%
78.0
21.7°
0
-3.0
Sinker Hard
3.5%
84.2
11.4°
2
+1.8
Curveball Breaking
1.5%
83.2
30.1°
0
+1.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups195
HRs allowed (pool)27
Pool HR rate13.8%
Pool HR/game day1.23
Top-15 matchups11
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.0% 66
HR/9—
FIP4.47 67
xFIP4.74
FIP − xFIP-0.27 27
Barrel% allowed21.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Changeup
Offspeed · 33.2% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle12.4°
HRs allowed7
Pitches724
Fastball
Hard · 31.3% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle33.8°
HRs allowed10
Pitches682
Slider
Breaking · 17.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle23.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches389
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.6% usage
-3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.0 mph
Avg launch angle21.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches275
Sinker
Hard · 3.5% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches77
Curveball
Breaking · 1.5% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle30.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches33
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Ober.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
27 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.1 EV · 406 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-26
9
2
108.2
2026-09-15
9
2
108.0
2026-09-06
9
1
106.0
2026-08-29
9
1
100.6
2026-08-23
9
2
115.1
2026-08-17
9
0
107.9
2026-08-11
8
3
109.0
2026-08-06
8
0
114.1
2026-07-30
8
1
113.7
2026-07-22
9
1
106.6
2026-07-17
9
0
109.5
2026-07-09
9
3
110.8
2026-05-30
9
3
107.2
2026-05-24
9
2
108.6
2026-05-17
9
2
115.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bailey Ober isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Bailey Ober isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
106
15
14%
9
3
33%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Bailey Ober
How many home runs has Bailey Ober allowed this season?
Bailey Ober has allowed 27 home runs across 22 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Bailey Ober?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Bailey Ober include Cal Raleigh (2), Daniel Schneemann (2), George Springer (2) and 47 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.