14
HRs allowed
14.1%
HR rate (pool)
13.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.14
FIP
4.6
xFIP
-0.46
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
58
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 58th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.8 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 115.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Ober.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
36.4%
80.3
15.1°
4
+1.2
Fastball Hard
30.9%
85.4
34.9°
7
+0.8
Slider Breaking
15.9%
85.0
23.9°
1
-0.0
Sweeper Breaking
10.7%
78.1
14.1°
0
-4.5
Sinker Hard
3.9%
80.8
16.1°
2
+2.5
Curveball Breaking
2.2%
83.2
30.1°
0
+1.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups99
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate14.1%
Pool HR/game day1.27
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB13.5% 58
HR/9—
FIP4.14 54
xFIP4.6
FIP − xFIP-0.46 21
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Changeup
Offspeed · 36.4% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle15.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches432
Fastball
Hard · 30.9% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle34.9°
HRs allowed7
Pitches367
Slider
Breaking · 15.9% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle23.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches189
Sweeper
Breaking · 10.7% usage
-4.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.1 mph
Avg launch angle14.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches127
Sinker
Hard · 3.9% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches46
Curveball
Breaking · 2.2% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle30.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches26
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Bailey Ober.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.8 EV · 404 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
9
3
110.8
2026-05-30
9
3
107.2
2026-05-24
9
2
108.6
2026-05-17
9
2
115.5
2026-05-12
9
0
101.6
2026-05-06
9
2
108.8
2026-04-30
9
1
107.4
2026-04-25
9
0
109.2
2026-04-19
9
0
109.3
2026-04-08
9
0
105.4
2026-03-29
9
1
109.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Bailey Ober isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.