8
HRs allowed
12.3%
HR rate (pool)
4.7%
Overall HR/FB
2.84
FIP
3.88
xFIP
-1.04
FIP − xFIP gap
#24
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
4
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 4th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
18.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 406 ft
max EV allowed 115.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 62.8%
BRK 26.4%
OFF 10.9%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
54.2%
81.9
19.4°
2
-1.1
Changeup Offspeed
10.9%
80.5
12.2°
1
+0.7
Curveball Breaking
9.7%
79.7
15.9°
1
+0.8
Slider Breaking
9.7%
86.1
26.2°
0
+0.5
Sinker Hard
8.6%
79.0
13.0°
0
+3.2
Sweeper Breaking
7.0%
84.6
29.8°
1
+2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups65
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate12.3%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB4.7% 4
HR/9—
FIP2.84 10
xFIP3.88
FIP − xFIP-1.04 4
Barrel% allowed18.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-01
Fastball
Hard · 54.2% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches436
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.9% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle12.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches88
Curveball
Breaking · 9.7% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle15.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches78
Slider
Breaking · 9.7% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle26.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches78
Sinker
Hard · 8.6% usage
+3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.0 mph
Avg launch angle13.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches69
Sweeper
Breaking · 7.0% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle29.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches56
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 406 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-27
9
2
105.9
2026-08-22
8
1
113.8
2026-08-16
8
1
105.5
2026-08-10
7
1
105.6
2026-08-04
9
0
110.0
2026-07-29
8
0
103.5
2026-07-22
8
0
115.1
2026-07-17
8
3
108.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Coors Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.016
Wind
7 mph from WNW
Temp
74°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
7
74°
-1
7:40p
6
72°
+5
8:40p
5
71°
+6
9:40p
4
70°
+4
10:40p
3
70°
+1
+3
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 4 mph from SW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
347ft
deep
CF
415ft
deep
RF
350ft
deep
vs LHH → RF
359ft
2 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
368ft
4 HRs allowed · deep
Shortest: LF 347 ft
HRs allowed avg 406 ft · n=8
Altitude carry; largest outfield
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
33
4
12%
9
2
22%
8
1
12%
7
1
14%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Gabriel Hughes
Is Gabriel Hughes likely to give up a home run tonight?
Gabriel Hughes pitches tonight (BAL @ COL at Coors Field). This season he has allowed 8 home runs across 8 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Gabriel Hughes allowed this season?
Gabriel Hughes has allowed 8 home runs across 8 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Gabriel Hughes?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Gabriel Hughes include Daylen Lile (1), Elly De La Cruz (1), Eugenio Suárez (1) and 5 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.