16
HRs allowed
9.9%
HR rate (pool)
11.0%
Overall HR/FB
3.93
FIP
4.25
xFIP
-0.32
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
33
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 33th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 397 ft
max EV allowed 111.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 6 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Sandy Alcantara.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
25.3%
84.0
12.5°
2
-1.4
Changeup Offspeed
21.2%
82.7
1.0°
4
+1.0
Fastball Hard
18.9%
86.0
28.6°
3
+0.3
Cutter Hard
14.3%
81.1
22.5°
1
-2.7
Sweeper Breaking
9.0%
78.4
28.7°
1
-0.5
Slider Breaking
7.7%
82.7
19.4°
1
-0.4
Curveball Breaking
3.6%
80.7
13.0°
1
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups162
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate9.9%
Pool HR/game day0.84
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB11.0% 33
HR/9—
FIP3.93 45
xFIP4.25
FIP − xFIP-0.32 28
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 25.3% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle12.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches514
Changeup
Offspeed · 21.2% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle1.0°
HRs allowed4
Pitches431
Fastball
Hard · 18.9% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle28.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches385
Cutter
Hard · 14.3% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle22.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches290
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.0% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.4 mph
Avg launch angle28.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches184
Slider
Breaking · 7.7% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches157
Curveball
Breaking · 3.6% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle13.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches73
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Sandy Alcantara.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 397 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
1
108.1
2026-07-04
5
0
102.8
2026-06-29
8
1
107.5
2026-06-23
9
2
110.5
2026-06-17
8
0
105.4
2026-06-12
8
2
106.9
2026-06-07
8
0
107.1
2026-06-01
9
1
103.8
2026-05-26
9
3
108.7
2026-05-21
9
2
110.5
2026-05-16
9
0
109.5
2026-05-10
9
0
108.0
2026-05-05
9
0
111.3
2026-04-29
9
0
104.6
2026-04-24
9
1
110.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Sandy Alcantara isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.