TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.26×

NYM @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 6 mph in 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:35p

+6 ↑

2:35p

+6 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

+6 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 34 · vs McLean ⟷ Juan Soto conv 31 · vs Rangel → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 71

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

FADE Alan Rangel RHP · PHI

leak 26

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●●

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs McLean Edge — 0.307 · 93.5 · 11.4% 30.0% 39.0% F B O B 74

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Rangel Edge — 0.265 · 92.5 · 10.0% 30.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.235 · 90.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 20.8% F B O C 58

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.183 · 89.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 50

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Rangel Edge — 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs McLean — 0.123 · 88.6 · 6.5% 22.2% 14.3% F B O D 46

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Rangel Edge — 0.100 · 89.6 · 7.6% 22.2% 11.6% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Rangel Edge — 0.146 · 91.9 · 7.5% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 48

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Rangel Edge — 0.134 · 89.3 · 7.2% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 47

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Rangel — 0.128 · 86.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 46

· PHI Alec Bohm vs McLean — 0.136 · 90.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Rangel — 0.120 · 90.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· NYM Luis Torrens COOL vs Rangel — 0.097 · 87.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.142 · 89.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 44

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.094 · 86.7 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 36.2% OFF 33.9% BRK 29.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.7% 5.1% 11.9% 14.6% C+ 69 —

Jared Young L Edge

11.1% 21.1% 9.1% 12.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

109

Francisco Lindor S Edge

8.3% 9.1% 5.0% 8.0% D 48 —

117

Carson Benge L Edge

7.2% 7.0% 8.6% 7.5% D 47 —

126

Marcus Semien R

11.4% 9.5% 2.6% 8.2% D 46 —

140

Brett Baty L Edge

8.5% 2.6% 14.0% 8.5% D 45 —

145

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 0.0% 12.3% 6.8% D 44 —

179

Luis Torrens R

4.3% 0.0% 5.1% 3.9% D 41 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Rangel's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.6% ← leak BRK 29.4% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.4% 16.4% 26.9% 19.4% B 74 —

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

8.8% 16.3% 8.8% 11.3% C 58 —

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.3% 14.9% 2.7% 9.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

125

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% D 46 —

152

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.5% 5.3% 6.1% 6.6% D 44 —

162

Alec Bohm R

4.8% 5.3% 6.7% 5.1% D 43 —

241

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.6% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Baty Schwarber Turner

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 74

Juan Soto — · 69

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 6 mph in 82°F open

↑

1 mph · out

80°F

1:35p · peak

↑

1 mph · out

80°F

2:35p

↑

1 mph · out

80°F

3:35p

↑

1 mph · out

80°F

4:35p

↑

1 mph · out

80°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 82°F, wind 6 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Alan Rangel · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 69 C+ — COOL 9 0.265 92.5 10.0% 32.7%vs RHP 401 20.5% 30.0% 32.9% 25

2 Jared Young 50 C — COOL 87 0.165 89.9 8.6% 21.4%vs RHP 399 9.7% 0.0% 11.7% 20

3 Francisco Lindor 48 D — · 109 0.146 91.9 7.5% 13.8%vs RHP 395 8.9% 11.1% 9.4% 30

4 Carson Benge 47 D — COOL 117 0.134 89.3 7.2% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.5% 10.0% 8.6% 28

5 Marcus Semien 46 D — COOL 126 0.128 86.1 7.3% 16.7%vs RHP 391 10.1% 0.0% 13.9% 3

6 Brett Baty 45 D — HOT 140 0.100 89.6 7.6% 10.6%vs RHP 401 5.5% 22.2% 11.6% 28

7 Bo Bichette 44 D — COOL 145 0.120 90.1 6.8% 10.0%vs RHP 385 9.6% 0.0% 10.1% 29

8 Luis Torrens 41 D — COOL 179 0.097 87.6 5.2% 7.1%vs RHP 394 5.7% 0.0% 9.7% 12

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 74 B — · 2 0.307 93.5 11.4% 43.8%vs RHP 403 26.4% 30.0% 39.0% 22

2 Bryce Harper 58 C — COOL 41 0.235 90.1 8.7% 36.2%vs RHP 400 19.1% 0.0% 20.8% 24

3 Brandon Marsh 50 C — COOL 84 0.183 89.6 7.9% 24.0%vs RHP 392 13.3% 0.0% 14.4% 21

4 Trea Turner 46 D — COOL 125 0.123 88.6 6.5% 18.2%vs RHP 394 13.0% 22.2% 14.3% 30

5 Bryson Stott 44 D — COOL 152 0.142 89.1 7.0% 8.8%vs RHP 393 7.9% 0.0% 9.1% 30

6 Alec Bohm 43 D — WARM 162 0.136 90.2 5.9% 19.4%vs RHP 394 11.0% 0.0% 11.2% 31

7 Justin Crawford 33 D — COOL 241 0.094 86.7 2.5% 5.9%vs RHP 382 2.9% 0.0% 8.0% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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