TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ MIL

Playable air · 1.05×

MIA @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

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5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -13 FIT

Best of game Griffin Conine conv 44 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 32 · vs Pérez → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 72

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Griffin Conine — C+ ●●●●●

2 Heriberto Hernández — C+ ●●●●●

3 Leo Jiménez — D ●●●●○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 35

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●●

2 Brice Turang — C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Griffin Conine vs Gasser — 0.287 · 89.7 · 11.0% 50.0% 38.5% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Pérez Edge — 0.266 · 92.5 · 12.7% 33.3% 31.3% F B O C+ 69

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Gasser Edge — 0.238 · 92.1 · 9.5% 25.0% 36.5% F B O C+ 60

· MIL Brice Turang vs Pérez Edge — 0.198 · 90.9 · 9.9% 20.0% 18.0% F B O C 54

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Gasser — 0.215 · 91.8 · 9.3% 14.3% 17.4% F B O C 55

· MIA Esteury Ruiz vs Gasser Edge — 0.227 · 85.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 22.1% F B O C 50

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.215 · 92.2 · 12.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 57

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.180 · 92.8 · 13.0% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIA Leo Jiménez vs Gasser Edge — 0.086 · 91.4 · 6.5% 40.0% 17.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Pérez — 0.089 · 87.7 · 6.7% 25.0% 12.0% F B O D 40

· MIL Gary Sanchez COOL vs Pérez — 0.217 · 88.6 · 10.3% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 49

· MIL Andrew Vaughn vs Pérez — 0.170 · 89.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.121 · 87.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 39

· MIL Braden Shewmake HOT vs Pérez Edge — 0.162 · 89.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 44

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.127 · 87.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Gasser — 0.161 · 85.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Gasser — 0.095 · 86.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.133 · 89.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.7% ← leak BRK 27.4% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Griffin Conine L

24.1% 4.8% 20.0% 16.7% C+ 61 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.8% 11.8% 8.3% 12.1% C+ 60 —

Kyle Stowers L

12.7% 15.6% 3.0% 11.7% C 55 —

Esteury Ruiz R Edge

12.9% 4.5% 0.0% 7.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

135

Leo Jiménez R Edge

3.6% 5.9% 11.1% 5.5% D 45 —

165

Liam Hicks L

3.6% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% D 43 —

197

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.2% 2.9% 3.3% 4.4% D 39 —

215

Javier Sanoja R Edge

0.8% 2.8% 0.0% 1.4% D 37 —

223

Jakob Marsee L

2.9% 0.0% 8.3% 3.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.7% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.3% ← leak BRK 35.5% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.4% 14.0% 16.7% 14.6% C+ 69 —

Jackson Chourio S Edge

13.5% 14.9% 3.8% 12.7% C 57 —

Brice Turang L Edge

9.8% 10.1% 2.2% 8.6% C 54 —

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.5% 12.3% 5.0% 13.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gary Sanchez R

12.1% 7.7% 0.0% 8.8% D 49 —

152

Braden Shewmake L Edge

7.9% 0.0% 18.2% 7.0% D 44 —

163

Andrew Vaughn R

6.1% 5.3% 0.0% 5.1% D 43 —

167

Christian Yelich L Edge

4.4% 10.4% 12.5% 6.8% D 43 —

188

Joey Ortiz R

3.5% 5.0% 0.0% 3.7% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Conine Hernández Stowers Jiménez Bauers Turang Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Griffin Conine — · 61

Jake Bauers — · 69

Heriberto Hernández — · 60

Brice Turang — · 54

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 78°F retractable

-13

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

1:10p · peak

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↑

18 mph · in

77°F

2:10p

-13

↑

18 mph · in

77°F

3:10p

-13

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18 mph · in

77°F

4:10p

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18 mph · in

77°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 78°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Griffin Conine 61 C+ — WARM 23 0.287 89.7 11.0% 53.8% 408 18.2% 50.0% 38.5% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 60 C+ — WARM 29 0.238 92.1 9.5% 36.8%vs LHP 411 10.0% 25.0% 36.5% 20

3 Kyle Stowers 55 C — WARM 57 0.215 91.8 9.3% 14.3%vs LHP 396 11.6% 14.3% 17.4% 16

4 Esteury Ruiz 50 C — WARM 82 0.227 85.9 7.5% 21.4%vs LHP 375 10.5% 0.0% 22.1% 7

5 Leo Jiménez 45 D — WARM 135 0.086 91.4 6.5% 22.2%vs LHP 406 16.7% 40.0% 17.4% 16

6 Liam Hicks 43 D — COOL 165 0.161 85.3 5.2% 10.0%vs LHP 376 15.0% 0.0% 9.7% 32

7 Xavier Edwards 39 D — COOL 197 0.121 87.0 5.7% 25.0%vs LHP 396 5.3% 0.0% 10.7% 30

8 Javier Sanoja 37 D — COOL 215 0.127 87.3 3.2% 18.2%vs LHP 385 4.9% 0.0% 9.8% 31

9 Jakob Marsee 36 D — COOL 223 0.095 86.6 4.9% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.5% 0.0% 8.2% 22

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 11 0.266 92.5 12.7% 35.3%vs RHP 401 21.3% 33.3% 31.3% 23

2 Jackson Chourio 57 C — COOL 45 0.215 92.2 12.4% 18.9%vs RHP 402 17.2% 0.0% 13.7% 31

3 Brice Turang 54 C — · 63 0.198 90.9 9.9% 26.4%vs RHP 406 11.7% 20.0% 18.0% 31

4 Garrett Mitchell 53 C — COOL 69 0.180 92.8 13.0% 29.6%vs RHP 415 9.1% 0.0% 12.9% 26

5 Gary Sanchez 49 D — COOL 91 0.217 88.6 10.3% 25.0%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 10

6 Braden Shewmake 44 D — HOT 152 0.162 89.9 9.0% 15.8%vs RHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 8

7 Andrew Vaughn 43 D — WARM 163 0.170 89.6 6.7% 5.6%vs RHP 412 4.5% 0.0% 11.4% 16

8 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 167 0.133 89.1 9.1% 14.3%vs RHP 402 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 27

9 Joey Ortiz 40 D — WARM 188 0.089 87.7 6.7% 10.0%vs RHP 400 4.8% 25.0% 12.0% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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