TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ LAA

Playable air · 1.07×

DET @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 4:07p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph in 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:07p

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2:07p

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3:07p

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4:07p

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5:07p

conditions hold steady across the window · -11 FIT

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 29 · vs Johnson ⟷ Mike Trout conv 17 · vs Mize → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 92

2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +400 C ●●●●○

2 Colt Keith +575 D ●●●●○

3 Jake Rogers +850 D ●●●●○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 82

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.91 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout +425 C ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jo Adell +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: 14.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson ✶ COOL vs Johnson +400 0.196 · 89.8 · 11.0% 33.3% 24.6% F B O C 59

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Mize +425 0.231 · 90.7 · 11.4% 14.3% 19.5% F B O C 53

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Johnson Edge +330 0.178 · 91.5 · 10.6% 11.1% 11.6% F B O C 52

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Johnson +575 0.267 · 89.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 59

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Johnson Edge +425 0.223 · 90.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Johnson Edge +575 0.145 · 89.3 · 8.0% 33.3% 15.5% F B O D 46

· DET Jake Rogers vs Johnson +850 0.144 · 88.6 · 8.3% 33.3% 15.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Mize +500 0.214 · 89.2 · 9.2% 11.1% 14.3% F B O D 48

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Mize +425 0.145 · 89.4 · 7.4% 11.1% 12.9% F B O D 38

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Mize +700 0.139 · 89.3 · 6.7% 14.3% 8.8% F B O D 36

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Mize Edge +475 0.149 · 88.9 · 7.9% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 39

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Mize +575 0.192 · 88.3 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 43

· DET James Outman vs Johnson Edge +625 0.168 · 86.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Johnson +950 0.137 · 87.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 47

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Mize +750 0.135 · 87.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 34

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Johnson Edge +550 0.131 · 88.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 39

· LAA Tyler Heineman COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.050 · 81.3 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 26

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Mize Edge +1000 0.119 · 87.2 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% ← leak OFF 26.9% BRK 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R

12.9% 6.1% 11.7% 11.7% C 59 +575

Spencer Torkelson R

16.4% 21.1% 8.9% 14.9% C 59 +400

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.3% 8.7% 11.4% 10.3% C 53 +425

Riley Greene L Edge

16.1% 6.2% 14.0% 13.7% C 52 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

118

Hao-Yu Lee R

13.8% 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% D 47 +950

122

Colt Keith L Edge

7.7% 4.4% 18.8% 8.7% D 46 +575

124

Jake Rogers R

9.3% 0.0% 6.2% 8.2% D 46 +850

144

James Outman L Edge

14.3% 0.0% 8.0% 9.3% D 44 +625

191

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.4% 2.1% 7.8% 7.9% D 39 +550

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.0% BRK 29.8% OFF 24.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R

18.5% 29.4% 10.0% 19.5% C 53 +425

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

106

Zach Neto R

16.7% 9.2% 3.6% 12.8% D 48 +500

159

Jorge Soler R

15.3% 10.9% 0.0% 12.5% D 43 +575

200

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.9% 2.6% 8.0% 9.0% D 39 +475

206

Jo Adell R

8.8% 7.0% 5.9% 7.9% D 38 +425

218

Vaughn Grissom R

7.7% 6.7% 0.0% 6.2% D 36 +700

232

Oswald Peraza R

6.5% 7.8% 12.5% 7.7% D 34 +750

259

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 2.1% D 28 +1000

262

Tyler Heineman L Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Keith Rogers Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Spencer Torkelson +400 · 59

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 1:07p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph in 83°F open

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12 mph · in

90°F

1:07p · peak

-11

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12 mph · in

90°F

2:07p

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12 mph · in

90°F

3:07p

-11

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12 mph · in

90°F

4:07p

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12 mph · in

90°F

5:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 83°F, wind 4 mph SSW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.18 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 59 C +575 COOL 36 0.267 89.8 9.6% 28.3%vs RHP 397 18.9% 0.0% 18.9% 16

2 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 59 C +400 COOL 38 0.196 89.8 11.0% 25.0%vs RHP 394 16.8% 33.3% 24.6% 21

3 Kerry Carpenter 53 C +425 COOL 68 0.223 90.4 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 380 16.0% 0.0% 16.0% 10

4 Riley Greene 52 C +330 COOL 74 0.178 91.5 10.6% 16.7%vs RHP 399 11.5% 11.1% 11.6% 21

5 Hao-Yu Lee 47 D +950 · 118 0.137 87.7 8.1% 16.7%vs RHP 379 22.2% 0.0% 9.2% 13

6 Colt Keith 46 D +575 HOT 122 0.145 89.3 8.0% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.5% 33.3% 15.5% 16

7 Jake Rogers 46 D +850 WARM 124 0.144 88.6 8.3% 10.5%vs RHP 376 11.1% 33.3% 15.0% 8

8 James Outman 44 D +625 WARM 144 0.168 86.8 7.5% 18.8%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.2% 13

9 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D +550 COOL 191 0.131 88.0 7.9% 7.6%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 29

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.91 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 53 C +425 COOL 65 0.231 90.7 11.4% 26.9%vs RHP 409 18.2% 14.3% 19.5% 17

2 Zach Neto 48 D +500 COOL 106 0.214 89.2 9.2% 21.2%vs RHP 402 18.5% 11.1% 14.3% 26

3 Jorge Soler 43 D +575 WARM 159 0.192 88.3 8.8% 32.4%vs RHP 398 13.3% 0.0% 14.4% 17

4 Josh Lowe 39 D +475 COOL 200 0.149 88.9 7.9% 17.0%vs RHP 396 11.9% 12.5% 8.2% 18

5 Jo Adell 38 D +425 COOL 206 0.145 89.4 7.4% 10.0%vs RHP 409 10.9% 11.1% 12.9% 26

6 Vaughn Grissom 36 D +700 COOL 218 0.139 89.3 6.7% 17.2%vs RHP 390 9.1% 14.3% 8.8% 23

7 Oswald Peraza 34 D +750 COOL 232 0.135 87.4 7.2% 10.0%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 7.7% 9

8 Nolan Schanuel 28 D +1000 COOL 259 0.119 87.2 3.6% 10.8%vs RHP 372 7.5% 0.0% 5.9% 20

9 Tyler Heineman 26 D — COOL 262 0.050 81.3 2.9% 7.1%vs RHP 391 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 4

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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