TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.27×

SD @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Tyler Tolbert conv 33 · vs Márquez ⟷ Ty France conv 24 · vs Cameron → edge: Lane Thomas

ATTACK Germán Márquez RHP · SD

leak 93

2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Tolbert — D ●●●●●

2 Lane Thomas — C ●●●●●

3 Salvador Perez — C ●●●○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 80

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France — C ●●●●○

2 Manny Machado — C ●●●○○

3 Luis Campusano — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Lane Thomas: 7.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Lane Thomas ✶ HOT vs Márquez — 0.162 · 89.6 · 8.2% 40.0% 19.4% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France vs Cameron Edge — 0.224 · 91.9 · 10.5% 20.0% 27.6% F B O C 55

· SD Manny Machado vs Cameron Edge — 0.208 · 90.1 · 10.0% 20.0% 21.2% F B O C 54

· KC Salvador Perez vs Márquez — 0.150 · 89.1 · 9.4% 20.0% 13.8% F B O C 50

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.195 · 93.0 · 11.8% 10.0% 15.2% F B O C 56

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.184 · 90.6 · 9.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· KC Tyler Tolbert COOL vs Márquez — 0.143 · 84.5 · 6.4% 50.0% 16.9% F B O D 48

· SD Luis Campusano vs Cameron Edge — 0.246 · 88.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 22.5% F B O D 49

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Márquez — 0.159 · 87.8 · 6.8% 12.5% 9.8% F B O D 45

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.118 · 88.3 · 7.4% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Cameron Edge — 0.106 · 88.0 · 7.9% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 38

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Cameron Edge — 0.164 · 88.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

· KC Josh Rojas COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.132 · 83.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· SD Jase Bowen vs Cameron Edge — 0.040 · 85.5 · 10.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· SD Luis Rengifo vs Cameron — 0.052 · 87.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Cameron — 0.129 · 89.4 · 9.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.8% BRK 27.3% OFF 21.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R Edge

11.8% 10.7% 8.3% 10.9% C 55 —

Manny Machado R Edge

12.9% 6.5% 5.6% 10.1% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Luis Campusano R Edge

8.3% 6.7% 25.0% 9.1% D 49 —

180

Miguel Andujar R Edge

4.5% 4.8% 3.7% 4.5% D 41 —

183

Jackson Merrill L

10.4% 8.8% 6.8% 9.1% D 41 —

211

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

8.3% 3.0% 4.3% 6.6% D 38 —

216

Jase Bowen R Edge

11.1% 14.3% 20.0% 13.3% D 37 —

251

Luis Rengifo L

2.4% 8.0% 5.6% 4.7% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Cameron's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.0% ← leak BRK 47.2% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.5% 16.2% 10.9% 14.8% C 56 —

Lane Thomas R

9.4% 0.0% 5.6% 7.2% C 53 —

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.7% 8.3% 8.6% 9.0% C 51 —

Salvador Perez R

13.3% 6.1% 10.8% 10.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

104

Tyler Tolbert R

7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% D 48 —

142

Nick Loftin R

7.0% 2.7% 0.0% 5.0% D 45 —

181

Josh Rojas L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 3.7% D 41 —

182

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.6% 7.4% 0.0% 5.8% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.0% usage) carries Márquez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Thomas Perez Tolbert

Legend

attack side — vs Márquez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Lane Thomas — · 53

Ty France — · 55

Manny Machado — · 54

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 92°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

1:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

2:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

3:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

90°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 92°F, wind 3 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 55 C — WARM 52 0.224 91.9 10.5% 30.0%vs LHP 394 16.7% 20.0% 27.6% 22

2 Manny Machado 54 C — · 61 0.208 90.1 10.0% 20.0%vs LHP 395 19.6% 20.0% 21.2% 26

3 Luis Campusano 49 D — WARM 92 0.246 88.0 9.7% 23.5% 406 25.0% 0.0% 22.5% 15

4 Miguel Andujar 41 D — · 180 0.164 88.2 6.7% 9.1%vs LHP 394 11.1% 0.0% 9.2% 18

5 Jackson Merrill 41 D — COOL 183 0.129 89.4 9.5% 11.8%vs LHP 406 11.0% 0.0% 7.6% 32

6 Xander Bogaerts 38 D — WARM 211 0.106 88.0 7.9% 7.1%vs LHP 396 8.9% 10.0% 7.1% 23

7 Jase Bowen 37 D — WARM 216 0.040 85.5 10.8% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 6

8 Luis Rengifo 30 D — WARM 251 0.052 87.7 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 1

vs Germán Márquez · RHP 2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 56 C — COOL 49 0.195 93.0 11.8% 27.0%vs RHP 414 12.6% 10.0% 15.2% 35

2 Lane Thomas ✶ 53 C — HOT 66 0.162 89.6 8.2% 23.1%vs RHP 416 16.7% 40.0% 19.4% 30

3 Carter Jensen 51 C — COOL 76 0.184 90.6 9.2% 17.5%vs RHP 393 14.9% 0.0% 12.8% 19

4 Salvador Perez 50 C — WARM 85 0.150 89.1 9.4% 17.0%vs RHP 398 14.3% 20.0% 13.8% 29

5 Tyler Tolbert 48 D — COOL 104 0.143 84.5 6.4% 22.2% 377 22.2% 50.0% 16.9% 16

6 Nick Loftin 45 D — COOL 142 0.159 87.8 6.8% 12.0%vs RHP 397 9.8% 12.5% 9.8% 27

7 Josh Rojas 41 D — COOL 181 0.132 83.4 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 13

8 Isaac Collins 41 D — COOL 182 0.118 88.3 7.4% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.1% 11.1% 7.9% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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