TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.17×

STL @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 2 mph slight_out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:10p

+1 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs Pallante ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 32 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 86

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +850 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +625 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo — D ●○○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 45

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +475 C ●●●●●

2 Nelson Velazquez +750 D ●●○○○

3 Lars Nootbaar +900 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ vs Rodriguez Edge +475 0.239 · 94.0 · 11.4% 36.4% 27.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Pallante +850 0.177 · 85.4 · 6.6% 33.3% 17.2% F B O D 42

· STL Nelson Velazquez vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.250 · 94.7 · 10.6% 0.0% 26.1% F B O D 43

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Pallante Edge +625 0.228 · 91.2 · 8.5% 10.0% 14.4% F B O D 48

· STL Lars Nootbaar COOL vs Rodriguez +900 0.158 · 91.3 · 9.4% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 39

· STL Alec Burleson vs Rodriguez +700 0.192 · 91.7 · 10.3% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 47

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.111 · 87.1 · 4.4% 10.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· STL José Fermín vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.123 · 85.3 · 4.4% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Pallante Edge +625 0.201 · 91.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo vs Pallante +700 0.126 · 89.2 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Pallante — 0.162 · 89.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.146 · 89.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· AZ Max Kepler COOL vs Pallante Edge +850 0.128 · 90.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Pallante +850 0.100 · 87.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Rodriguez +750 0.144 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

· STL Blaze Jordan vs Rodriguez Edge +950 0.118 · 88.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 35

· STL Masyn Winn vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.086 · 88.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.2% ← leak OFF 27.0% BRK 12.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.7% 16.1% 13.3% 14.4% C 59 +475

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

116

Alec Burleson L

11.8% 10.6% 11.8% 11.5% D 47 +700

155

Nelson Velazquez R Edge

16.7% 0.0% 9.1% 13.6% D 43 +750

201

Lars Nootbaar L

13.6% 0.0% 10.5% 9.9% D 39 +900

223

Jj Wetherholt L

11.6% 2.5% 3.9% 8.4% D 35 +750

229

Blaze Jordan R Edge

2.4% 20.0% 11.8% 7.4% D 35 +950

230

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.8% 8.6% 6.2% 6.3% D 34 +950

249

José Fermín R Edge

2.3% 0.0% 2.7% 2.0% D 31 —

260

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.5% 3.3% 2.3% 3.1% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 48.1% OFF 2.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

105

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.7% 15.0% 7.7% 11.4% D 48 +625

148

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.0% 7.4% 4.1% 10.7% D 44 +625

167

Nolan Arenado R

10.3% 1.3% 3.8% 6.8% D 42 +850

214

Gabriel Moreno R

7.8% 8.3% 10.7% 8.3% D 37 —

220

Max Kepler L Edge

23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% D 36 +850

225

Adrian Del Castillo

10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 35 +700

248

Ryan Waldschmidt R

8.9% 8.7% 0.0% 7.8% D 32 +850

256

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.1% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Velazquez Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Pallante fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jordan Walker +475 · 59

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 2 mph slight_out 94°F retractable

↑

11 mph · slight_out

102°F

1:10p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

102°F

2:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

102°F

3:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

102°F

4:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

101°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 94°F, wind 2 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 59 C +475 · 34 0.239 94.0 11.4% 37.5%vs LHP 406 20.0% 36.4% 27.1% 33

2 Alec Burleson 47 D +700 WARM 116 0.192 91.7 10.3% 7.1%vs LHP 407 16.3% 10.0% 8.8% 31

3 Nelson Velazquez 43 D +750 · 155 0.250 94.7 10.6% 30.8%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 10

4 Lars Nootbaar 39 D +900 COOL 201 0.158 91.3 9.4% 13.0% 438 3.0% 14.3% 8.0% 22

5 Jj Wetherholt 35 D +750 WARM 223 0.144 90.0 8.3% 8.8%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 31

6 Blaze Jordan 35 D +950 WARM 229 0.118 88.7 8.3% 5.6% 418 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 11

7 Ivan Herrera 34 D +950 COOL 230 0.146 89.0 7.2% 25.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 34

8 José Fermín 31 D — WARM 249 0.123 85.3 4.4% 11.1%vs LHP 384 5.9% 10.0% 6.6% 27

9 Masyn Winn 28 D — WARM 260 0.086 88.0 5.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.4% 0.0% 5.3% 26

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 48 D +625 COOL 105 0.228 91.2 8.5% 21.1%vs RHP 403 14.1% 10.0% 14.4% 25

2 Ketel Marte 44 D +625 COOL 148 0.201 91.1 8.1% 14.7%vs RHP 413 15.0% 0.0% 11.7% 31

3 Nolan Arenado 42 D +850 WARM 167 0.177 85.4 6.6% 18.4%vs RHP 392 12.2% 33.3% 17.2% 22

4 Gabriel Moreno 37 D — COOL 214 0.162 89.4 6.8% 15.4%vs RHP 395 7.5% 0.0% 8.9% 31

5 Max Kepler 36 D +850 COOL 220 0.128 90.2 8.8% 10.0%vs RHP 417 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 17

6 Adrian Del Castillo 35 D +700 · 225 0.126 89.2 6.5% 17.9%vs RHP 400 8.7% 0.0% 9.2% 0

7 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D +850 WARM 248 0.100 87.1 7.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 3

8 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 256 0.111 87.1 4.4% 8.6%vs RHP 386 6.0% 10.0% 7.0% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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