TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.36×

BAL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

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5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 27 · vs Brown ⟷ Yainer Diaz conv 29 · vs Young → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 97

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

2 Samuel Basallo — C ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo — C ●●●○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 75

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yainer Diaz — D ●●●●○

2 Jose Altuve — D ●●●●○

3 Yordan Alvarez — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Brown — 0.218 · 93.8 · 9.4% 22.2% 32.6% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Brown Edge — 0.211 · 91.4 · 9.6% 25.0% 28.3% F B O C 58

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Young Edge — 0.310 · 94.6 · 10.9% 22.2% 26.3% F B O C+ 69

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Brown — 0.193 · 92.2 · 8.8% 20.0% 23.1% F B O C 54

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.183 · 89.4 · 7.2% 11.1% 12.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Young — 0.167 · 87.9 · 6.0% 40.0% 18.4% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Young — 0.162 · 85.6 · 6.3% 33.3% 17.4% F B O D 46

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Brown Edge — 0.134 · 87.3 · 5.8% 25.0% 14.5% F B O D 41

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Brown — 0.110 · 89.4 · 6.4% 22.2% 14.4% F B O D 41

· HOU Cam Smith vs Young — 0.156 · 89.5 · 8.7% 12.5% 9.5% F B O D 47

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Young — 0.160 · 86.7 · 6.0% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 43

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.164 · 87.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Brown Edge — 0.143 · 86.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 46

· BAL Dylan Beavers vs Brown Edge — 0.114 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· HOU Raynel Delgado vs Young — 0.129 · 87.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· HOU Nick Allen COOL vs Young — 0.065 · 83.7 · 3.0% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.0% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Alonso R

15.6% 7.6% 15.6% 13.3% C+ 61 —

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.0% 11.7% 11.1% 13.2% C 58 —

Coby Mayo R

10.5% 11.3% 10.5% 10.8% C 54 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.9% 6.5% 7.6% 7.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

131

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.7% 14.7% 2.6% 11.4% D 46 —

139

Jackson Holliday L Edge

12.2% 4.5% 15.4% 10.7% D 45 —

174

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.5% 9.3% 0.0% 5.2% D 41 —

175

Taylor Ward R

8.4% 1.4% 2.9% 5.9% D 41 —

209

Dylan Beavers L Edge

8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.0% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.1% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.9% 23.5% 10.7% 18.6% C+ 69 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

115

Cam Smith R

9.6% 16.7% 20.0% 12.2% D 47 —

119

Yainer Diaz R

9.9% 2.0% 4.5% 6.3% D 46 —

121

Jose Altuve R

7.0% 6.5% 0.0% 6.3% D 46 —

164

Isaac Paredes R

7.1% 4.2% 2.6% 5.8% D 43 —

210

Raynel Delgado

0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 3.7% D 38 —

244

Nick Allen R

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.1% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Basallo Mayo Taveras Ward Alvarez Diaz Altuve

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Alonso — · 61

Samuel Basallo — · 58

Yordan Alvarez — · 69

Coby Mayo — · 54

Yainer Diaz — · 46

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph in 93°F retractable

-1

↑

10 mph · cross

96°F

1:10p · peak

-1

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10 mph · cross

96°F

2:10p

-1

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10 mph · cross

96°F

3:10p

-1

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10 mph · cross

96°F

4:10p

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10 mph · cross

96°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.36× 93°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ — COOL 24 0.218 93.8 9.4% 28.8%vs RHP 401 19.6% 22.2% 32.6% 20

2 Samuel Basallo 58 C — WARM 39 0.211 91.4 9.6% 29.2%vs RHP 398 16.9% 25.0% 28.3% 20

3 Coby Mayo 54 C — HOT 59 0.193 92.2 8.8% 10.7%vs RHP 408 14.9% 20.0% 23.1% 10

4 Gunnar Henderson 50 C — COOL 88 0.183 89.4 7.2% 16.9%vs RHP 389 16.8% 11.1% 12.7% 29

5 Colton Cowser 46 D — WARM 131 0.143 86.8 8.8% 19.5%vs RHP 417 14.3% 0.0% 10.2% 11

6 Jackson Holliday 45 D — COOL 139 0.164 87.4 8.7% 20.0%vs RHP 384 4.7% 0.0% 11.8% 10

7 Leody Taveras 41 D — WARM 174 0.134 87.3 5.8% 11.4%vs RHP 420 3.1% 25.0% 14.5% 11

8 Taylor Ward 41 D — WARM 175 0.110 89.4 6.4% 5.6%vs RHP 388 7.1% 22.2% 14.4% 21

9 Dylan Beavers 38 D — WARM 209 0.114 87.7 6.0% 10.5%vs RHP 406 2.5% 0.0% 8.3% 13

vs Brandon Young · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 12 0.310 94.6 10.9% 26.7%vs RHP 404 27.9% 22.2% 26.3% 28

2 Cam Smith 47 D — · 115 0.156 89.5 8.7% 19.6%vs RHP 414 12.2% 12.5% 9.5% 25

3 Yainer Diaz 46 D — WARM 119 0.167 87.9 6.0% 25.0%vs RHP 391 9.8% 40.0% 18.4% 19

4 Jose Altuve 46 D — COOL 121 0.162 85.6 6.3% 23.1%vs RHP 379 9.7% 33.3% 17.4% 29

5 Isaac Paredes 43 D — COOL 164 0.160 86.7 6.0% 17.6%vs RHP 373 10.6% 11.1% 9.6% 30

6 Raynel Delgado 38 D — · 210 0.129 87.2 4.9% 0.0%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0

7 Nick Allen 33 D — COOL 244 0.065 83.7 3.0% 0.0%vs RHP 367 3.2% 0.0% 5.8% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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