TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CLE

Neutral air · 1.01×

PIT @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+4 ↑

3:40p

+4 ↑

4:40p

+4 ↑

5:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Gabriel Arias conv 30 · vs Skenes ⟷ Esmerlyn Valdez conv 39 · vs Cantillo → edge: Esmerlyn Valdez

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 91

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Gabriel Arias — D ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Travis Bazzana — D ●●○○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 71

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Esmerlyn Valdez — B ●●●●●

2 Jacob Gonzalez — D ●●●●●

3 Bryan Reynolds — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Esmerlyn Valdez: 29.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ vs Cantillo Edge — 0.404 · 92.8 · 14.7% 44.4% 33.9% F B O B 71

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Cantillo Edge — 0.193 · 90.9 · 9.1% 18.2% 23.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· PIT Jacob Gonzalez vs Cantillo — 0.112 · 88.6 · 4.7% 50.0% 12.1% F B O D 39

· CLE Gabriel Arias vs Skenes — 0.168 · 91.5 · 8.5% 33.3% 26.9% F B O D 47

· PIT Henry Davis COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.189 · 89.7 · 8.8% 16.7% 19.1% F B O D 49

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Skenes Edge — 0.136 · 86.5 · 4.2% 22.2% 10.5% F B O D 35

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Skenes Edge — 0.173 · 88.3 · 5.5% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn HOT vs Cantillo — 0.194 · 89.8 · 7.8% 9.1% 20.6% F B O D 49

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.087 · 90.4 · 6.1% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.084 · 85.7 · 4.7% 18.2% 7.0% F B O D 33

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Skenes Edge — 0.189 · 90.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 21.8% F B O D 40

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Cantillo Edge — 0.076 · 84.6 · 3.4% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.149 · 89.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· PIT Billy Cook COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.022 · 83.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.050 · 85.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· CLE Kahlil Watson COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.091 · 88.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.055 · 83.2 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 21

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.079 · 87.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.6% ← leak BRK 31.9% OFF 27.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Esmerlyn Valdez R Edge

22.2% 47.4% 0.0% 29.8% B 71 —

Neutral · 1

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

9.6% 14.5% 5.3% 10.0% C 52 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Ryan O'Hearn L

9.8% 7.6% 4.5% 8.7% D 49 —

Henry Davis R Edge

11.2% 5.4% 15.4% 10.0% D 49 —

194

Jacob Gonzalez L

0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 1.5% D 39 —

226

Billy Cook R Edge

8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% D 35 —

243

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.7% 4.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 33 —

253

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 30 —

254

Jared Triolo R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.6% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.5% ← leak OFF 25.9% BRK 21.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

110

Gabriel Arias R

4.0% 0.0% 19.2% 10.3% D 47 —

178

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.9% 0.0% 4.3% 4.8% D 41 —

185

Chase Delauter L Edge

10.2% 2.0% 6.3% 7.7% D 40 —

188

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.0% 8.1% 10.9% 10.9% D 40 —

224

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.7% 1.4% 3.9% 3.2% D 35 —

231

Patrick Bailey S Edge

7.1% 3.6% 5.3% 5.9% D 34 —

234

Kahlil Watson L Edge

10.0% 0.0% 5.6% 8.2% D 34 —

242

Petey Halpin L Edge

8.3% 0.0% 7.1% 7.0% D 33 —

264

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Valdez Reynolds O'Hearn Davis Gonzalez Arias Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Esmerlyn Valdez — · 71

Gabriel Arias — · 47

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph cross 76°F open

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

1:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

2:40p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

3:40p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

4:40p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 76°F, wind 3 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ 71 B — WARM 6 0.404 92.8 14.7% 41.7%vs LHP 398 30.0% 44.4% 33.9% 18

2 Bryan Reynolds 52 C — WARM 71 0.193 90.9 9.1% 26.1%vs LHP 409 13.8% 18.2% 23.2% 20

3 Ryan O'Hearn 49 D — HOT 94 0.194 89.8 7.8% 18.2%vs LHP 384 14.5% 9.1% 20.6% 24

4 Henry Davis 49 D — COOL 95 0.189 89.7 8.8% 18.2%vs LHP 390 13.6% 16.7% 19.1% 13

5 Jacob Gonzalez 39 D — WARM 194 0.112 88.6 4.7% 8.3% 402 9.5% 50.0% 12.1% 8

6 Billy Cook 35 D — COOL 226 0.022 83.5 5.0% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 2

7 Nick Gonzales 33 D — COOL 243 0.084 85.7 4.7% 5.3%vs LHP 396 6.6% 18.2% 7.0% 27

8 Jake Mangum 30 D — HOT 253 0.076 84.6 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.6% 10.0% 6.3% 29

9 Jared Triolo 30 D — COOL 254 0.079 87.5 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 25

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Gabriel Arias 47 D — WARM 110 0.168 91.5 8.5% 50.0%vs RHP 416 11.4% 33.3% 26.9% 11

2 Travis Bazzana 41 D — · 178 0.173 88.3 5.5% 20.5%vs RHP 398 13.0% 20.0% 11.2% 24

3 Chase Delauter 40 D — HOT 185 0.189 90.9 6.6% 25.0%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 32

4 Kyle Manzardo 40 D — COOL 188 0.149 89.1 8.2% 20.8%vs RHP 389 10.3% 0.0% 9.7% 19

5 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — WARM 224 0.136 86.5 4.2% 13.6%vs RHP 386 7.7% 22.2% 10.5% 31

6 Patrick Bailey 34 D — COOL 231 0.087 90.4 6.1% 6.9%vs RHP 399 4.2% 16.7% 8.8% 16

7 Kahlil Watson 34 D — COOL 234 0.091 88.9 6.9% 11.1%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 19

8 Petey Halpin 33 D — COOL 242 0.050 85.5 6.4% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 7

9 Steven Kwan 21 D — COOL 264 0.055 83.2 1.6% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.4% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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