TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CHC

Neutral air · 1.02×

MIN @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:20p

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2:20p

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3:20p

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4:20p

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5:20p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Ryan Jeffers conv 24 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 22 · vs Matthews → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ryan Jeffers — C+ ●●●●○

2 Royce Lewis — C ●●●○○

3 Kody Clemens — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki — C ●●●○○

2 Carson Kelly — D ●●●○○

3 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.260 · 90.8 · 11.8% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 60

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Imanaga Edge — 0.172 · 89.1 · 11.2% 25.0% 20.0% F B O C 55

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Imanaga — 0.242 · 92.8 · 11.4% 11.1% 33.8% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Matthews — 0.197 · 89.0 · 10.5% 22.2% 22.6% F B O C 57

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.233 · 90.1 · 11.0% 11.1% 28.6% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.157 · 88.3 · 10.9% 11.1% 10.4% F B O C 51

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.213 · 89.6 · 11.9% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 58

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Matthews — 0.192 · 89.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Matthews — 0.126 · 88.2 · 8.7% 28.6% 15.4% F B O D 46

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Matthews — 0.144 · 87.9 · 7.0% 22.2% 15.6% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.179 · 88.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 45

· MIN Josh Bell vs Imanaga Edge — 0.175 · 90.0 · 10.1% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· MIN Ryan Kreidler COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.169 · 87.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· CHC Pedro Ramirez COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.153 · 89.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Imanaga Edge — 0.141 · 89.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Matthews — 0.093 · 86.0 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.098 · 84.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· MIN Austin Martin vs Imanaga Edge — 0.076 · 87.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.7% ← leak OFF 33.3% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kody Clemens L

9.9% 12.2% 19.3% 12.6% C+ 63 —

Ryan Jeffers R Edge

17.8% 7.7% 11.4% 14.9% C+ 60 —

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.6% 9.1% 11.5% 13.0% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

102

Josh Bell S Edge

10.3% 6.2% 14.8% 10.3% D 49 —

138

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 1.3% 1.2% 4.0% D 45 —

141

Ryan Kreidler R Edge

9.1% 11.1% 3.0% 7.4% D 45 —

151

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.0% 7.1% 14.8% 8.2% D 44 —

233

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 3.4% D 34 —

247

Austin Martin R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.7% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 12.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

8.9% 12.3% 11.5% 10.4% C+ 62 —

Ian Happ S Edge

14.9% 19.6% 3.4% 13.0% C 58 —

Seiya Suzuki R

9.7% 9.3% 10.5% 9.6% C 57 —

Dansby Swanson R

8.1% 4.1% 13.8% 7.5% C 52 —

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 6.8% 3.1% 9.8% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

123

Carson Kelly R

8.5% 3.8% 5.9% 7.0% D 46 —

136

Alex Bregman R

4.4% 6.2% 6.7% 5.1% D 45 —

173

Pedro Ramirez L Edge

7.7% 9.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 41 —

246

Nico Hoerner R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Jeffers Lewis Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Kelly Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ryan Jeffers — · 60

Royce Lewis — · 55

Seiya Suzuki — · 57

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

1:20p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

2:20p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

3:20p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

4:20p

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 76°F, wind 5 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 63 C+ — · 19 0.242 92.8 11.4% 29.4%vs LHP 389 20.0% 11.1% 33.8% 23

2 Ryan Jeffers 60 C+ — COOL 32 0.260 90.8 11.8% 10.0%vs LHP 398 17.8% 25.0% 23.9% 13

3 Royce Lewis 55 C — WARM 55 0.172 89.1 11.2% 16.7%vs LHP 396 17.9% 25.0% 20.0% 22

4 Josh Bell 49 D — WARM 102 0.175 90.0 10.1% 11.1%vs LHP 404 11.0% 0.0% 11.2% 27

5 Brooks Lee 45 D — COOL 138 0.179 88.0 6.1% 15.4%vs LHP 367 14.6% 0.0% 12.1% 29

6 Ryan Kreidler 45 D — COOL 141 0.169 87.4 8.7% 12.5%vs LHP 411 6.9% 0.0% 11.0% 16

7 Victor Caratini 44 D — WARM 151 0.141 89.8 8.7% 15.4%vs LHP 404 7.9% 0.0% 9.6% 16

8 Luke Keaschall 34 D — COOL 233 0.098 84.4 5.5% 4.8%vs LHP 370 4.8% 0.0% 7.5% 22

9 Austin Martin 32 D — WARM 247 0.076 87.0 4.7% 4.2%vs LHP 392 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% 9

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 62 C+ — COOL 21 0.233 90.1 11.0% 23.2%vs RHP 393 19.4% 11.1% 28.6% 20

2 Ian Happ 58 C — COOL 42 0.213 89.6 11.9% 24.6%vs RHP 402 18.6% 0.0% 15.8% 21

3 Seiya Suzuki 57 C — COOL 46 0.197 89.0 10.5% 21.3%vs RHP 408 14.3% 22.2% 22.6% 29

4 Dansby Swanson 52 C — COOL 72 0.192 89.8 9.3% 19.0%vs RHP 403 13.5% 0.0% 15.4% 27

5 Michael Busch 51 C — COOL 78 0.157 88.3 10.9% 15.2%vs RHP 403 13.1% 11.1% 10.4% 26

6 Carson Kelly 46 D — WARM 123 0.126 88.2 8.7% 9.1%vs RHP 416 7.3% 28.6% 15.4% 17

7 Alex Bregman 45 D — WARM 136 0.144 87.9 7.0% 16.7%vs RHP 392 8.3% 22.2% 15.6% 29

8 Pedro Ramirez 41 D — COOL 173 0.153 89.2 6.6% 0.0%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 5

9 Nico Hoerner 32 D — WARM 246 0.093 86.0 3.0% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.1% 0.0% 8.3% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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