TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.11×

TB @ BOS

Fenway Park · 1:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph slight_out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:35p

+4 ↑

2:35p

+4 ↑

3:35p

+4 ↑

4:35p

+4 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 36 · vs Gray ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 33 · vs McClanahan → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 88

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●●

2 Hunter Feduccia — D ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 11

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●●●●

2 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●●●

3 Jahmai Jones — D ●●●●●

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Gray — 0.270 · 93.3 · 9.8% 36.4% 36.1% F B O C+ 64

· BOS Willson Contreras HOT vs McClanahan Edge — 0.252 · 90.5 · 11.2% 40.0% 25.5% F B O C+ 61

· BOS Wilyer Abreu HOT vs McClanahan — 0.181 · 90.2 · 10.7% 40.0% 19.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· BOS Jahmai Jones vs McClanahan Edge — 0.089 · 90.6 · 9.1% 50.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· BOS Andruw Monasterio HOT vs McClanahan Edge — 0.171 · 89.0 · 9.2% 40.0% 17.0% F B O D 49

· TB Hunter Feduccia COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.091 · 90.6 · 7.6% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 39

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.134 · 88.3 · 5.4% 12.5% 10.2% F B O D 39

· TB Jonathan Aranda HOT vs Gray Edge — 0.175 · 91.1 · 8.5% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran vs McClanahan — 0.147 · 89.4 · 9.8% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 44

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.098 · 86.0 · 5.1% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 33

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs McClanahan Edge — 0.154 · 85.0 · 4.8% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs McClanahan Edge — 0.162 · 86.2 · 6.6% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Gray — 0.160 · 91.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 38

· BOS Romy Gonzalez COOL vs McClanahan Edge — 0.143 · 88.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· BOS Connor Wong COOL vs McClanahan Edge — 0.100 · 85.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson vs Gray Edge — 0.067 · 84.1 · — 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 19

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.070 · 84.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.3% ← leak BRK 36.2% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.6% 13.0% 7.3% 14.0% C+ 64 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

129

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.0% 12.3% 6.0% 10.4% D 46 —

193

Hunter Feduccia L Edge

14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% D 39 —

196

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.5% 2.1% 9.4% 4.0% D 39 —

204

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 11.8% 5.1% 7.3% D 38 —

240

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.3% 2.3% 4.0% 4.3% D 33 —

258

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% D 28 —

265

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.3% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 37.8% BRK 33.1% OFF 29.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R Edge

12.3% 16.3% 19.4% 14.1% C+ 61 —

Wilyer Abreu L

13.1% 12.9% 13.1% 13.1% C 53 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

8.5% 8.7% 16.7% 9.3% D 49 —

153

Jarren Duran L

14.3% 7.6% 9.8% 11.5% D 44 —

189

Jahmai Jones R Edge

13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% D 40 —

198

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

4.2% 5.3% 9.5% 5.3% D 39 —

215

Romy Gonzalez R Edge

5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% D 37 —

219

Caleb Durbin R Edge

2.9% 1.6% 3.7% 2.7% D 36 —

235

Connor Wong R Edge

3.2% 8.0% 0.0% 4.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Feduccia Contreras Abreu Monasterio Jones

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero — · 64

Willson Contreras — · 61

Wilyer Abreu — · 53

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph slight_out 78°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

1:35p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

3:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

4:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 79°F, wind 6 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ — · 18 0.270 93.3 9.8% 41.5%vs RHP 408 28.7% 36.4% 36.1% 28

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D — HOT 129 0.175 91.1 8.5% 19.7%vs RHP 387 13.2% 10.0% 11.7% 31

3 Hunter Feduccia 39 D — COOL 193 0.091 90.6 7.6% 9.1%vs RHP 409 6.1% 25.0% 12.8% 11

4 Cedric Mullins 39 D — COOL 196 0.134 88.3 5.4% 21.1%vs RHP 391 13.3% 12.5% 10.2% 18

5 Yandy Diaz 38 D — · 204 0.160 91.1 7.0% 23.1%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 38

6 Richie Palacios 33 D — COOL 240 0.098 86.0 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 396 4.2% 12.5% 8.2% 19

7 Taylor Walls 28 D — COOL 258 0.070 84.9 4.5% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 17

8 Chandler Simpson 19 D — · 265 0.067 84.1 — 3.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 36

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 61 C+ — HOT 25 0.252 90.5 11.2% 24.0%vs LHP 405 21.6% 40.0% 25.5% 11

2 Wilyer Abreu 53 C — HOT 64 0.181 90.2 10.7% 17.9%vs LHP 405 15.1% 40.0% 19.8% 29

3 Andruw Monasterio 49 D — HOT 96 0.171 89.0 9.2% 20.0%vs LHP 383 21.7% 40.0% 17.0% 17

4 Jarren Duran 44 D — WARM 153 0.147 89.4 9.8% 7.7%vs LHP 398 13.5% 12.5% 8.2% 23

5 Jahmai Jones 40 D — WARM 189 0.089 90.6 9.1% 18.8%vs LHP 409 7.7% 50.0% 9.5% 3

6 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D — · 198 0.162 86.2 6.6% 13.0%vs LHP 372 8.7% 10.0% 8.7% 37

7 Romy Gonzalez 37 D — COOL 215 0.143 88.2 5.4% 25.0% 368 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 14

8 Caleb Durbin 36 D — COOL 219 0.154 85.0 4.8% 17.6%vs LHP 373 9.0% 10.0% 8.8% 32

9 Connor Wong 34 D — COOL 235 0.100 85.6 6.1% 12.5%vs LHP 380 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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