11
HRs allowed
8.0%
HR rate (pool)
18.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.93
FIP
3.64
xFIP
+0.29
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Sonny Gray.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
20.1%
83.0
11.9°
3
-1.0
Sinker Hard
20.0%
83.4
8.8°
2
-2.9
Sweeper Breaking
19.5%
82.6
6.6°
1
-1.4
Fastball Hard
18.2%
85.4
19.7°
2
-1.0
Curveball Breaking
16.7%
81.7
-0.6°
3
+2.4
Changeup Offspeed
5.0%
78.8
10.9°
0
+0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups137
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate8.0%
Pool HR/game day0.69
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB18.3% 84
HR/9—
FIP3.93 45
xFIP3.64
FIP − xFIP+0.29 64
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 20.1% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches296
Sinker
Hard · 20.0% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches294
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.5% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches287
Fastball
Hard · 18.2% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle19.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches268
Curveball
Breaking · 16.7% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle-0.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches246
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.0% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle10.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches74
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Sonny Gray.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 402 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
8
1
110.8
2026-07-04
9
1
109.6
2026-06-28
7
0
105.1
2026-06-23
9
2
107.9
2026-06-18
7
1
105.8
2026-06-12
9
0
105.7
2026-06-05
8
2
108.3
2026-05-30
9
0
108.8
2026-05-24
9
0
107.3
2026-05-18
9
0
111.1
2026-05-13
9
1
107.6
2026-05-06
9
0
109.3
2026-04-20
9
0
109.5
2026-04-14
8
2
108.0
2026-04-08
9
0
108.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Sonny Gray isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.