15
HRs allowed
6.4%
HR rate (pool)
17.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.78
FIP
3.56
xFIP
+0.23
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
78
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 78th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
12.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.4 EV · 397 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Sonny Gray.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
22.2%
83.7
7.5°
3
-2.0
Sweeper Breaking
20.4%
82.2
3.8°
3
-1.2
Cutter Hard
18.3%
84.4
13.9°
5
-0.5
Fastball Hard
17.4%
84.4
18.2°
3
-0.6
Curveball Breaking
15.9%
82.4
-3.8°
4
+1.6
Changeup Offspeed
5.7%
79.4
14.8°
0
-0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups235
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate6.4%
Pool HR/game day0.54
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB17.5% 78
HR/9—
FIP3.78 37
xFIP3.56
FIP − xFIP+0.23 62
Barrel% allowed12.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 22.2% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle7.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches583
Sweeper
Breaking · 20.4% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle3.8°
HRs allowed3
Pitches534
Cutter
Hard · 18.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.9°
HRs allowed5
Pitches480
Fastball
Hard · 17.4% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle18.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches456
Curveball
Breaking · 15.9% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle-3.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches416
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.7% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.4 mph
Avg launch angle14.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches149
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Sonny Gray.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.4 EV · 397 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
9
0
102.3
2026-09-17
9
1
107.9
2026-09-11
9
0
110.0
2026-09-05
8
0
107.0
2026-08-26
9
0
107.5
2026-08-21
8
2
107.5
2026-08-15
8
0
107.5
2026-08-10
6
0
102.2
2026-08-05
9
0
99.0
2026-07-30
7
0
109.4
2026-07-25
8
1
103.8
2026-07-19
8
0
104.6
2026-07-10
8
1
110.8
2026-07-04
9
1
109.6
2026-06-28
7
0
105.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Sonny Gray isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Sonny Gray isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
110
5
5%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 16. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Sonny Gray
How many home runs has Sonny Gray allowed this season?
Sonny Gray has allowed 15 home runs across 28 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Sonny Gray?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Sonny Gray include Ben Rice (2), Elly De La Cruz (2), Jackson Chourio (2) and 31 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.