TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.52×

CIN @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 5 mph slight_out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:10p

-4 ↑

2:10p

-4 ↑

3:10p

-4 ↑

4:10p

-4 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 33 · vs Feltner ⟷ Kyle Karros conv 30 · vs Greene → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 90

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz +850 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nathaniel Lowe +850 C+ ●●●●○

3 Spencer Steer — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Hunter Greene RHP · CHC

leak 88

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Karros +900 C ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro +900 D ●●●○○

3 Edouard Julien — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 15.5% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Feltner Edge +850 0.231 · 94.5 · 11.7% 33.3% 31.7% F B O C+ 69

· — Kyle Karros vs Greene +900 0.176 · 89.7 · 7.6% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C 54

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Feltner Edge +850 0.212 · 89.0 · 10.0% 33.3% 24.7% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Spencer Steer vs Feltner — 0.196 · 89.9 · 10.7% 22.2% 26.7% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Feltner Edge +950 0.250 · 89.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 37.0% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Feltner — 0.216 · 90.6 · 11.4% 11.1% 22.8% F B O C+ 63

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Feltner +700 0.186 · 88.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 26.8% F B O C 53

· — Hunter Goodman COOL vs Greene +575 0.283 · 91.1 · 10.7% 0.0% 24.5% F B O C+ 66

· — Mickey Moniak COOL vs Greene Edge +800 0.282 · 89.8 · 9.1% 0.0% 20.9% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Willi Castro vs Greene Edge +900 0.122 · 88.3 · 6.6% 28.6% 16.3% F B O D 45

· — Edouard Julien vs Greene Edge — 0.108 · 91.2 · 7.1% 16.7% 16.7% F B O D 43

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Greene Edge — 0.206 · 84.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 45

· — Tj Rumfield COOL vs Greene Edge — 0.179 · 83.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 43

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Feltner +950 0.116 · 89.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson COOL vs Feltner +950 0.128 · 90.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 49

· — Troy Johnston COOL vs Greene Edge +1000 0.139 · 89.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.095 · 87.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· — Tyler Freeman vs Greene — 0.076 · 87.6 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 44.7% ← leak FB 40.0% OFF 15.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

13.0% 20.8% 4.1% 15.5% C+ 69 +850

Sal Stewart R

9.4% 16.6% 10.7% 13.7% C+ 63 —

Spencer Steer R

10.7% 13.2% 12.5% 12.4% C+ 62 —

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

10.0% 9.5% 12.9% 10.3% C+ 61 +850

Jj Bleday L Edge

9.8% 10.9% 6.4% 9.5% C+ 60 +950

Eugenio Suarez R

2.9% 11.3% 7.7% 9.2% C 53 +700

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

103

Tyler Stephenson R

4.2% 13.1% 5.9% 9.9% D 49 +950

107

Dane Myers R

6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 6.7% D 48 +950

192

Tj Friedl L Edge

4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (44.7% usage) carries Feltner's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.4% ← leak BRK 36.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Hunter Goodman R

17.7% 16.7% 16.2% C+ 66 +575

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.4% 25.7% 11.5% C 59 +800

Kyle Karros R

7.8% 5.2% 7.8% C 54 +900

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

132

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 1.8% 5.7% D 45 —

135

Willi Castro S Edge

6.4% 5.6% 6.3% D 45 +900

154

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.2% 2.4% 5.1% D 43 —

158

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.6% 11.8% 7.1% D 43 —

207

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 2.5% D 38 +1000

238

Tyler Freeman R

2.5% 0.0% 1.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.4% usage) carries Greene's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Steer Lowe Bleday Suarez Karros Castro Julien

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Elly De La Cruz +850 · 69

Kyle Karros +900 · 54

Nathaniel Lowe +850 · 61

Spencer Steer — · 62

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 5 mph slight_out 93°F open

-4

↑

12 mph · in

98°F

1:10p · peak

-4

↑

12 mph · in

98°F

2:10p

-4

↑

12 mph · in

98°F

3:10p

-4

↑

12 mph · in

98°F

4:10p

-4

↑

12 mph · in

98°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.52× 93°F, wind 5 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 69 C+ +850 · 10 0.231 94.5 11.7% 17.8%vs RHP 398 17.1% 33.3% 31.7% 28

2 Sal Stewart 63 C+ — COOL 20 0.216 90.6 11.4% 21.0%vs RHP 389 12.2% 11.1% 22.8% 31

3 Spencer Steer 62 C+ — WARM 22 0.196 89.9 10.7% 20.8%vs RHP 394 13.5% 22.2% 26.7% 27

4 Nathaniel Lowe 61 C+ +850 WARM 26 0.212 89.0 10.0% 30.3%vs RHP 396 15.1% 33.3% 24.7% 7

5 Jj Bleday 60 C+ +950 · 28 0.250 89.0 9.7% 26.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 37.0% 23

6 Eugenio Suarez 53 C +700 HOT 63 0.186 88.2 9.7% 25.8%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 12

7 Tyler Stephenson 49 D +950 COOL 103 0.128 90.5 9.5% 15.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 0.0% 9.9% 17

8 Dane Myers 48 D +950 COOL 107 0.116 89.9 8.2% 10.0%vs RHP 378 6.5% 0.0% 11.4% 2

9 Tj Friedl 39 D — COOL 192 0.095 87.7 5.1% 9.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 14

vs Hunter Greene · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 66 C+ +575 COOL 17 0.283 91.1 10.7% 40.4%vs RHP 409 24.4% 0.0% 24.5% 16

2 Mickey Moniak 59 C +800 COOL 35 0.282 89.8 9.1% 23.2%vs RHP 418 16.1% 0.0% 20.9% 21

3 Kyle Karros 54 C +900 WARM 58 0.176 89.7 7.6% 25.0%vs RHP 417 11.8% 33.3% 25.8% 26

4 Jake Mccarthy 45 D — COOL 132 0.206 84.9 6.4% 18.2%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 30

5 Willi Castro 45 D +900 · 135 0.122 88.3 6.6% 11.8%vs RHP 414 8.2% 28.6% 16.3% 16

6 Tj Rumfield 43 D — COOL 154 0.179 83.9 6.2% 18.2%vs RHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 31

7 Edouard Julien 43 D — WARM 158 0.108 91.2 7.1% 13.3%vs RHP 400 3.9% 16.7% 16.7% 11

8 Troy Johnston 38 D +1000 COOL 207 0.139 89.6 3.8% 7.9%vs RHP 415 1.4% 0.0% 9.6% 18

9 Tyler Freeman 33 D — WARM 238 0.076 87.6 3.2% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.3% 0.0% 8.5% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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