TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

WSH @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 49 · vs Griffin ⟷ James Wood conv 49 · vs Lopez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 92

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom +625 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +425 C+ ●●●●●

3 Jonah Heim +850 C ●●●○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 84

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood +350 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +525 C+ ●●●●●

3 Dylan Crews +625 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 55.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Lopez +350 0.281 · 95.1 · 10.7% 55.6% 43.2% F B O B 79

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom HOT vs Griffin +625 0.239 · 90.3 · 10.2% 60.0% 37.4% F B O C+ 67

· ATH Shea Langeliers HOT vs Griffin Edge +425 0.237 · 91.8 · 12.0% 25.0% 42.2% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Lopez Edge +525 0.258 · 88.1 · 7.6% 25.0% 36.2% F B O C+ 68

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Griffin Edge +850 0.205 · 87.2 · 8.0% 16.7% 22.8% F B O C 55

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Lopez Edge +625 0.133 · 90.5 · 6.6% 16.7% 12.0% F B O C 52

· WSH Andres Chaparro HOT vs Lopez Edge +625 0.194 · 91.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 26.9% F B O C 54

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Lopez +700 0.163 · 88.0 · 6.3% 12.5% 11.4% F B O C 51

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Lopez +575 0.228 · 89.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 22.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Griffin Edge +700 0.091 · 89.9 · 7.8% 14.3% 17.7% F B O D 46

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Griffin Edge — 0.103 · 84.3 · 4.3% 12.5% 9.8% F B O D 39

· ATH Colby Thomas COOL vs Griffin Edge +625 0.154 · 89.7 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 49

· ATH Alika Williams COOL vs Griffin Edge +950 0.144 · 85.4 · — 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 37

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Lopez Edge +950 0.143 · 88.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 48

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.047 · 84.6 · 1.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 32

· ATH Joshua Kuroda-Grauer vs Griffin Edge — 0.132 · 88.9 · — 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.9% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L

22.8% 24.7% 13.8% 22.3% B 79 +350

Neutral · 5

Curtis Mead R Edge

13.8% 10.2% 3.2% 11.3% C+ 68 +525

Cj Abrams L

11.7% 7.1% 9.5% 9.7% C 56 +575

Andres Chaparro R Edge

16.1% 33.3% 0.0% 14.6% C 54 +625

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.2% 21.7% 5.9% 8.8% C 52 +625

Daylen Lile L

7.5% 10.8% 5.3% 7.9% C 51 +700

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

108

Jacob Young R Edge

8.3% 4.7% 3.7% 6.7% D 48 +950

245

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.9% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.7% ← leak BRK 25.0% OFF 16.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shea Langeliers R Edge

17.2% 17.0% 4.9% 15.2% C+ 69 +425

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.6% 20.0% 0.0% 10.6% C+ 67 +625

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.6% 2.9% 7.9% 6.5% C 55 +850

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Colby Thomas R Edge

16.7% 14.3% 0.0% 12.0% D 49 +625

120

Henry Bolte R Edge

6.8% 8.3% 5.6% 7.1% D 46 +700

197

Jacob Wilson R Edge

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 39 —

217

Alika Williams R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 37 +950

237

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.7% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Mead Chaparro Crews Langeliers Soderstrom Heim Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

James Wood +350 · 79

Tyler Soderstrom +625 · 67

Shea Langeliers +425 · 69

Curtis Mead +525 · 68

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.25× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 79 B +350 COOL 1 0.281 95.1 10.7% 40.0%vs LHP 412 30.0% 55.6% 43.2% 21

2 Curtis Mead 68 C+ +525 WARM 13 0.258 88.1 7.6% 21.9%vs LHP 400 21.4% 25.0% 36.2% 27

3 Cj Abrams 56 C +575 · 47 0.228 89.7 7.1% 13.6%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 32

4 Andres Chaparro 54 C +625 HOT 57 0.194 91.8 8.6% 16.7%vs LHP 423 0.0% 0.0% 26.9% 8

5 Dylan Crews 52 C +625 · 73 0.133 90.5 6.6% 25.0%vs LHP 413 16.2% 16.7% 12.0% 22

6 Daylen Lile 51 C +700 HOT 77 0.163 88.0 6.3% 5.9%vs LHP 403 9.2% 12.5% 11.4% 25

7 Jacob Young 48 D +950 COOL 108 0.143 88.7 5.9% 5.0%vs LHP 391 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% 14

8 Nasim Nunez 32 D — COOL 245 0.047 84.6 1.6% 8.3%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 17

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 69 C+ +425 HOT 8 0.237 91.8 12.0% 34.5%vs LHP 416 20.5% 25.0% 42.2% 13

2 Tyler Soderstrom 67 C+ +625 HOT 14 0.239 90.3 10.2% 30.0%vs LHP 403 16.9% 60.0% 37.4% 13

3 Jonah Heim 55 C +850 · 54 0.205 87.2 8.0% 33.3%vs LHP 411 14.8% 16.7% 22.8% 19

4 Colby Thomas 49 D +625 COOL 97 0.154 89.7 9.9% 16.7%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 5

5 Henry Bolte 46 D +700 WARM 120 0.091 89.9 7.8% 42.9%vs LHP 422 11.1% 14.3% 17.7% 17

6 Jacob Wilson 39 D — WARM 197 0.103 84.3 4.3% 6.2%vs LHP 382 5.8% 12.5% 9.8% 27

7 Alika Williams 37 D +950 COOL 217 0.144 85.4 — 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 6

8 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 33 D — · 237 0.132 88.9 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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