12
HRs allowed
12.1%
HR rate (pool)
16.7%
Overall HR/FB
6.52
FIP
6.28
xFIP
+0.23
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
80
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 80th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.6 EV · 388 ft
max EV allowed 112.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 2 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jacob Lopez.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
34.6%
84.0
26.2°
4
+1.4
Slider Breaking
30.5%
75.0
22.0°
3
+1.0
Cutter Hard
19.5%
79.7
34.4°
1
+0.4
Changeup Offspeed
9.7%
78.5
3.9°
2
+5.4
Sinker Hard
5.8%
81.3
19.0°
1
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups99
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate12.1%
Pool HR/game day1.09
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB16.7% 80
HR/9—
FIP6.52 96
xFIP6.28
FIP − xFIP+0.23 61
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 34.6% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle26.2°
HRs allowed4
Pitches387
Slider
Breaking · 30.5% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.0 mph
Avg launch angle22.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches341
Cutter
Hard · 19.5% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle34.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches218
Changeup
Offspeed · 9.7% usage
+5.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle3.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches108
Sinker
Hard · 5.8% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle19.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches65
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jacob Lopez.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.6 EV · 388 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
2
111.2
2026-05-31
9
0
106.6
2026-05-19
9
1
107.6
2026-05-14
9
2
110.5
2026-05-08
9
1
108.5
2026-05-02
9
1
108.5
2026-04-21
9
1
104.3
2026-04-16
9
1
107.3
2026-04-11
9
1
105.7
2026-04-05
9
2
112.1
2026-03-30
9
0
108.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jacob Lopez isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.