TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.47×

TEX @ ATL

Truist Park · 1:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph slight_out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:35p

+9 ↑

2:35p

+9 ↑

3:35p

+9 ↑

4:35p

+9 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Matt Olson conv 34 · vs Eovaldi ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 31 · vs Holmes → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Nathan Eovaldi RHP · TEX

leak 90

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin — C+ ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley — D ●●○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 85

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran — C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.283 · 92.8 · 10.6% 30.0% 38.5% F B O B 71

· TEX Joc Pederson COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.231 · 91.9 · 10.0% 28.6% 33.7% F B O C+ 67

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Holmes — 0.164 · 88.5 · 7.6% 33.3% 23.4% F B O C 55

· TEX Jake Burger vs Holmes — 0.186 · 89.8 · 9.6% 22.2% 27.5% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Kyle Higashioka vs Holmes — 0.163 · 88.1 · 8.7% 25.0% 21.9% F B O C 54

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.191 · 91.5 · 11.0% 20.0% 19.4% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Holmes — 0.206 · 88.7 · 8.2% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 57

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Holmes Edge — 0.168 · 92.6 · 10.6% 11.1% 11.9% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.138 · 87.7 · 7.5% 14.3% 12.8% F B O D 49

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.148 · 90.2 · 9.0% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 49

· ATL Jim Jarvis COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.172 · 86.5 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.168 · 86.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 46

· TEX Josh Jung vs Holmes — 0.150 · 90.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 49

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Eovaldi — 0.148 · 86.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 41

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Eovaldi Edge — 0.119 · 87.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 42

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.049 · 84.9 · — 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.9% ← leak BRK 44.9% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.6% 9.6% 4.5% 11.5% C+ 67 —

Jake Burger R

9.2% 12.1% 10.7% 10.4% C+ 60 —

Wyatt Langford R

6.7% 11.4% 7.7% 8.2% C 57 —

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.4% 18.7% 15.4% 13.3% C 56 —

Ezequiel Duran R

9.1% 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% C 55 —

Kyle Higashioka R

12.0% 2.8% 16.7% 9.4% C 54 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Evan Carter L Edge

8.8% 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% D 49 —

101

Josh Jung R

8.9% 3.2% 3.7% 6.5% D 49 —

255

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.9% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.0% ← leak OFF 36.6% BRK 22.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.5% 12.1% 9.8% 14.7% B 71 —

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.7% 3.2% 22.2% 15.5% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

100

Austin Riley R

12.7% 3.2% 12.3% 11.4% D 49 —

113

Jim Jarvis L Edge

15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% D 47 —

128

Ozzie Albies S Edge

5.9% 3.3% 1.1% 3.9% D 46 —

170

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.4% 2.9% 6.5% 5.8% D 42 —

172

Mauricio Dubon R

3.6% 3.9% 6.9% 4.6% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.0% usage) carries Eovaldi's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Langford Duran Higashioka Carter Olson Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Eovaldi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 6

Matt Olson — · 71

Joc Pederson — · 67

Ezequiel Duran — · 55

Jake Burger — · 60

Kyle Higashioka — · 54

Drake Baldwin — · 60

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 6 mph slight_out 92°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

84°F

1:35p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

84°F

2:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

84°F

3:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

84°F

4:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

84°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 92°F, wind 7 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 67 C+ — COOL 15 0.231 91.9 10.0% 30.2%vs RHP 394 20.9% 28.6% 33.7% 16

2 Jake Burger 60 C+ — WARM 31 0.186 89.8 9.6% 23.5%vs RHP 400 14.8% 22.2% 27.5% 22

3 Wyatt Langford 57 C — · 43 0.206 88.7 8.2% 18.8%vs RHP 401 15.5% 16.7% 20.3% 17

4 Brandon Nimmo 56 C — · 50 0.168 92.6 10.6% 13.3%vs RHP 409 9.2% 11.1% 11.9% 24

5 Ezequiel Duran 55 C — WARM 53 0.164 88.5 7.6% 20.5%vs RHP 385 12.7% 33.3% 23.4% 21

6 Kyle Higashioka 54 C — · 60 0.163 88.1 8.7% 16.0%vs RHP 391 10.0% 25.0% 21.9% 11

7 Evan Carter 49 D — COOL 98 0.138 87.7 7.5% 15.7%vs RHP 374 10.7% 14.3% 12.8% 16

8 Josh Jung 49 D — WARM 101 0.150 90.5 7.5% 15.2%vs RHP 386 10.3% 0.0% 11.8% 16

9 Nicky Lopez 29 D — COOL 255 0.049 84.9 — 7.1%vs RHP 397 2.9% 0.0% 8.5% 22

vs Nathan Eovaldi · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 71 B — · 5 0.283 92.8 10.6% 33.9%vs RHP 408 21.6% 30.0% 38.5% 25

2 Drake Baldwin 60 C+ — WARM 33 0.191 91.5 11.0% 25.0%vs RHP 407 18.4% 20.0% 19.4% 34

3 Austin Riley 49 D — COOL 100 0.148 90.2 9.0% 14.8%vs RHP 403 8.3% 10.0% 11.9% 25

4 Jim Jarvis 47 D — COOL 113 0.172 86.5 9.0% 16.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 24

5 Ozzie Albies 46 D — COOL 128 0.168 86.8 5.6% 12.7%vs RHP 383 12.4% 0.0% 12.3% 29

6 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 170 0.119 87.7 6.9% 13.0%vs RHP 390 6.8% 0.0% 9.7% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 41 D — COOL 172 0.148 86.4 6.2% 14.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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