20
HRs allowed
13.9%
HR rate (pool)
19.2%
Overall HR/FB
4.94
FIP
4.41
xFIP
+0.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
86
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 86th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.0 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
37.2%
82.8
3.3°
5
-0.1
Fastball Hard
31.7%
85.9
27.6°
7
-0.0
Sinker Hard
10.7%
86.1
7.6°
1
-0.7
Curveball Breaking
7.7%
83.7
5.1°
0
+0.2
Cutter Hard
7.5%
82.4
18.3°
2
-1.9
Changeup Offspeed
5.1%
76.6
-16.5°
0
-0.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups144
HRs allowed (pool)20
Pool HR rate13.9%
Pool HR/game day1.18
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB19.2% 86
HR/9—
FIP4.94 78
xFIP4.41
FIP − xFIP+0.53 75
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Slider
Breaking · 37.2% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle3.3°
HRs allowed5
Pitches557
Fastball
Hard · 31.7% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle27.6°
HRs allowed7
Pitches475
Sinker
Hard · 10.7% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle7.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches160
Curveball
Breaking · 7.7% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle5.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches116
Cutter
Hard · 7.5% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle18.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches112
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.1% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.6 mph
Avg launch angle-16.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches77
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
20 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.0 EV · 390 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
0
102.6
2026-07-03
8
1
107.2
2026-06-22
6
1
107.7
2026-06-17
8
2
106.2
2026-06-16
8
0
—
2026-06-09
7
1
109.0
2026-06-03
9
2
110.7
2026-05-29
9
2
108.6
2026-05-23
9
2
113.2
2026-05-17
9
0
111.3
2026-05-12
9
1
107.1
2026-05-01
9
1
109.1
2026-04-24
9
2
108.3
2026-04-19
9
1
107.9
2026-04-13
8
2
114.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Grant Holmes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.