2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Max Muncy 9 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 4 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 5 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 6 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 7 Brooks Lee 5 HRs · 8 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 9 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 10 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 11 Nick Sogard 4 HRs · 12 Sal Stewart 4 HRs 1 Max Muncy 9 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 4 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 5 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 6 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 7 Brooks Lee 5 HRs · 8 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 9 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 10 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 11 Nick Sogard 4 HRs · 12 Sal Stewart 4 HRs
Grant Holmes

Grant Holmes

RHP ATL
210 matchups scored · 25 game days
25
HRs allowed
11.9%
HR rate (pool)
19.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.95
FIP
4.42
xFIP
+0.54
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
84
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.5%
20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.1%
74.1%
Fly-ball rate
avg HR 103.3 EV · 393 ft max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
2026-06-17 · 2 HR 2026-06-22 · 1 HR 2026-07-03 · 1 HR 2026-07-19 · 1 HR 2026-07-30 · 1 HR 2026-08-09 · 1 HR 2026-08-15 · 2 HR
7D · 0 HR 15D · 2 HR 30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Not on today's slate — matchup context appears when he's next listed.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking 37.3% 83.8 3.6° 8 -0.5
Fastball Hard 28.5% 85.8 28.5° 7 -0.0
Sinker Hard 11.4% 88.2 8.6° 1 +0.2
Cutter Hard 8.8% 85.3 16.9° 3 +1.0
Curveball Breaking 7.7% 85.6 6.2° 0 +0.4
Changeup Offspeed 6.3% 81.8 -5.9° 0 -1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups210
HRs allowed (pool)25
Pool HR rate11.9%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups27
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB19.3% 84
HR/9
FIP4.95 81
xFIP4.42
FIP − xFIP+0.54 78
Barrel% allowed20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.1%
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Slider
Breaking · 37.3% usage
-0.5 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed8
Pitches789
Fastball
Hard · 28.5% usage
-0.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle28.5°
HRs allowed7
Pitches603
Sinker
Hard · 11.4% usage
+0.2 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.2 mph
Avg launch angle8.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches242
Cutter
Hard · 8.8% usage
+1.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches187
Curveball
Breaking · 7.7% usage
+0.4 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches163
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.3% usage
-1.1 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle-5.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches134
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
25 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 393 ft 4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
2026-08-15 Nolan Arenado #36 56 Truist Park 99.5 33.0° 387
2026-08-15 Ildemaro Vargas #162 40 Truist Park 105.4 19.0° 403
2026-08-09 Trent Grisham #61 50 Yankee Stadium 106.2 30.0° 392
2026-07-30 Daylen Lile #52 51 Truist Park 104.5 24.0° 408
2026-07-19 Wyatt Langford #45 57 Truist Park 105.2 26.0° 422
2026-07-03 Juan Soto #29 58 Truist Park 100.6 26.0° 359
2026-06-22 Manny Machado #75 53 Petco Park 104.6 21.0° 418
2026-06-17 Bryce Eldridge #34 62 Truist Park 100.9 33.0° 406
2026-06-17 Willy Adames #92 50 Truist Park 102.1 32.0° 400
2026-06-09 Miguel Vargas #8 68 Rate Field 109.0 20.0° 377
2026-06-03 Brandon Valenzuela #184 34 Truist Park 104.4 35.0° 399
2026-06-03 Nathan Lukes #201 33 Truist Park 96.9 36.0° 374
2026-05-29 Nathaniel Lowe #4 80 Great American Ball Park 100.6 30.0° 390
2026-05-29 JJ Bleday #15 70 Great American Ball Park 108.6 23.0° 393
2026-05-23 Jorbit Vivas #181 40 Truist Park 95.1 33.0° 364.0
2026-05-23 Dylan Crews #209 36 Truist Park 102.6 25.0° 396.0
2026-05-12 Alex Bregman #189 25 Truist Park 100.4 35.0° 374.0
2026-05-01 Mickey Moniak #11 49 Coors Field 105.5 29.0° 439.0
2026-04-24 Bryce Harper #17 78 Truist Park 104.3 26.0° 389.0
2026-04-24 Trea Turner #72 60 Truist Park 102.5 25.0° 375.0
2026-04-19 Kyle Schwarber #7 85 Citizens Bank Park 107.1 25.0° 381.0
2026-04-13 Agustin Ramirez #34 41 Truist Park 105.2 26.0° 418.0
2026-04-13 Connor Norby #46 39 Truist Park 104.9 29.0° 380.0
2026-04-08 Jorge Soler #17 49 Angel Stadium 105.9 30.0° 402.0
2026-03-29 Carter Jensen #26 58 Truist Park 99.6 30.0° 371.0
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-28 Truist Park 8 0 106.8
2026-08-20 Rate Field 9 0 109.9
2026-08-15 Truist Park 9 2 106.0
2026-08-09 Yankee Stadium 6 1 111.8
2026-08-04 Truist Park 9 0 107.7
2026-07-30 Truist Park 8 1 105.5
2026-07-24 Camden Yards 8 0 106.8
2026-07-19 Truist Park 9 1 107.8
2026-07-08 PNC Park 9 0 102.6
2026-07-03 Truist Park 8 1 107.2
2026-06-22 Petco Park 6 1 107.7
2026-06-17 Truist Park 8 2 106.2
2026-06-16 Truist Park 8 0
2026-06-09 Rate Field 7 1 109.0
2026-06-03 Truist Park 9 2 110.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Grant Holmes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Grant Holmes isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
Truist Park 129 17 13%
Great American Ball Park 9 2 22%
Rate Field 16 1 6%
Angel Stadium 9 1 11%
Citizens Bank Park 9 1 11%
Coors Field 9 1 11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 10. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Six home runs to freedom

Grant Holmes's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see the Threat Matrix, vulnerability signals, arsenal damage, BvP history, HR log, and ballpark conditions.

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.
210 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Common questions about Grant Holmes

How many home runs has Grant Holmes allowed this season?

Grant Holmes has allowed 25 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.

Which batters have homered off Grant Holmes?

In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Grant Holmes include Bryce Harper (2), Trea Turner (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 32 more.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

THR 3.3.166 · build 670

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's board graded name-by-name — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board (scores and matchups; batter names are Pro), free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.