25
HRs allowed
11.9%
HR rate (pool)
19.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.95
FIP
4.42
xFIP
+0.54
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
84
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 84th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.3 EV · 393 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
37.3%
83.8
3.6°
8
-0.5
Fastball Hard
28.5%
85.8
28.5°
7
-0.0
Sinker Hard
11.4%
88.2
8.6°
1
+0.2
Cutter Hard
8.8%
85.3
16.9°
3
+1.0
Curveball Breaking
7.7%
85.6
6.2°
0
+0.4
Changeup Offspeed
6.3%
81.8
-5.9°
0
-1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups210
HRs allowed (pool)25
Pool HR rate11.9%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups27
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB19.3% 84
HR/9—
FIP4.95 81
xFIP4.42
FIP − xFIP+0.54 78
Barrel% allowed20.5%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Slider
Breaking · 37.3% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle3.6°
HRs allowed8
Pitches789
Fastball
Hard · 28.5% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.8 mph
Avg launch angle28.5°
HRs allowed7
Pitches603
Sinker
Hard · 11.4% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.2 mph
Avg launch angle8.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches242
Cutter
Hard · 8.8% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.9°
HRs allowed3
Pitches187
Curveball
Breaking · 7.7% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle6.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches163
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.3% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle-5.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches134
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Grant Holmes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
25 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.3 EV · 393 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-28
8
0
106.8
2026-08-20
9
0
109.9
2026-08-15
9
2
106.0
2026-08-09
6
1
111.8
2026-08-04
9
0
107.7
2026-07-30
8
1
105.5
2026-07-24
8
0
106.8
2026-07-19
9
1
107.8
2026-07-08
9
0
102.6
2026-07-03
8
1
107.2
2026-06-22
6
1
107.7
2026-06-17
8
2
106.2
2026-06-16
8
0
—
2026-06-09
7
1
109.0
2026-06-03
9
2
110.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Grant Holmes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Grant Holmes isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
129
17
13%
9
2
22%
16
1
6%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 10. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Grant Holmes
How many home runs has Grant Holmes allowed this season?
Grant Holmes has allowed 25 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Grant Holmes?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Grant Holmes include Bryce Harper (2), Trea Turner (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 32 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.