TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.12×

LAD @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:20p · 33 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 9 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

7:20p

+11 ↑

8:20p

+11 ↑

9:20p

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10:20p

+11 ↑

11:20p

conditions hold steady across the window · +11 FIT

Best of game Ben Rice conv 38 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 37 · vs Proxy → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 80

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +750 B ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +950 D ●●○○○

3 Ryan Mcmahon — D ●●○○○

FADE NYY Bullpen Proxy · NYY

leak 46

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +525 B ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +750 C+ ●●○○○

3 Andy Pages +750 C ●●○○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 31

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +525 C+ ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +750 C ●●○○○

3 Andy Pages +750 C ●●○○○

FADE Will Klein RHP · LAD

leak 66

0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +750 B ●●●●●

2 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 30.5% · 14D pace 44.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice HOT vs Yamamoto Edge +750 0.320 · 92.2 · 10.2% 40.0% 36.4% F B O B 72

· NYY Ben Rice HOT vs Klein Edge +750 0.320 · 92.2 · 8.4% 40.0% 35.2% F B O B 70

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Proxy +525 0.253 · 93.5 · 17.2% 44.4% 30.5% F B O B 76

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Schlittler Edge +525 0.253 · 93.5 · 11.9% 44.4% 29.4% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Klein — 0.226 · 86.5 · 7.3% 16.7% 31.2% F B O C 55

· LAD Max Muncy vs Proxy +750 0.235 · 90.1 · 13.8% 10.0% 21.4% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Max Muncy vs Schlittler Edge +750 0.235 · 90.1 · 10.7% 10.0% 21.3% F B O C 58

· LAD Andy Pages vs Schlittler +750 0.194 · 89.1 · 8.4% 11.1% 18.6% F B O C 51

· LAD Andy Pages vs Proxy +750 0.194 · 89.1 · 8.5% 11.1% 15.3% F B O C 53

· NYY Max Schuemann COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.229 · 88.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 18.4% F B O C 50

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.215 · 89.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.3% F B O C 50

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Proxy — 0.215 · 89.0 · 11.5% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 54

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Proxy +850 0.192 · 90.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O C 54

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Schlittler Edge +850 0.192 · 90.5 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 19 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Klein Edge +950 0.104 · 89.3 · 5.5% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 42

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Yamamoto Edge +950 0.180 · 91.1 · 8.5% 11.1% 12.8% F B O D 49

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Klein Edge +950 0.180 · 91.1 · 7.0% 11.1% 12.4% F B O D 47

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.166 · 90.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 22.2% F B O D 49

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Klein Edge — 0.166 · 90.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 21.4% F B O D 47

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Klein — 0.140 · 83.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 18.2% F B O D 37

· NYY Jasson Dominguez COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.198 · 88.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Schlittler +950 0.173 · 90.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Schlittler +850 0.163 · 90.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Proxy +850 0.163 · 90.2 · 10.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 46

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Proxy +950 0.173 · 90.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 48

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.160 · 89.0 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Klein Edge — 0.160 · 89.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Proxy — 0.094 · 88.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· NYY Ali Sanchez COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.091 · 83.2 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Schlittler Edge +900 0.125 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Proxy +900 0.125 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· NYY Anthony Volpe COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.080 · 87.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.143 · 89.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for NYY Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 91.1% ← leak BRK 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

21.6% 12.0% 17.6% C+ 67 +525

Max Muncy L Edge

18.3% 14.8% 14.6% C 58 +750

Andy Pages R

8.2% 9.0% 8.3% C 51 +750

Dalton Rushing L Edge

11.7% 17.9% 11.5% C 50 —

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.5% 9.9% 10.3% C 50 +850

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

129

Mookie Betts R

10.3% 3.8% 8.2% D 46 +950

159

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.6% 14.7% 11.2% D 43 +850

186

Tommy Edman S Edge

3.8% 7.1% 7.1% D 41 —

204

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.8% 3.8% 5.6% D 39 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (91.1% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.4% ← leak OFF 27.0% BRK 20.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.7% 12.2% 11.5% 15.5% B 72 +750

Neutral · 1

Max Schuemann R

30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.1% 20.0% 5.3% 12.0% D 49 —

100

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.7% 5.9% 11.1% 10.7% D 49 +950

151

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 9.1% 12.3% 6.3% D 44 —

158

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

3.1% 6.2% 10.5% 5.2% D 43 —

207

Ali Sanchez R

5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% D 38 —

230

Anthony Volpe R

5.7% 10.0% 0.0% 4.0% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.6% ← leak BRK 49.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.7% 11.5% 15.5% B 70 +750

Neutral · 1

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.2% 5.7% 11.8% C 55 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

111

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.1% 5.3% 12.0% D 47 —

116

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.7% 11.1% 10.7% D 47 +950

171

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 12.3% 6.3% D 42 —

173

Austin Wells L Edge

9.1% 6.9% 7.2% D 42 +950

214

Jose Caballero R

— — — D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.6% usage) carries Klein's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Ohtani Muncy Pages Rice Rice Goldschmidt Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ben Rice +750 · 72

Ben Rice +750 · 70

Shohei Ohtani +525 · 76

Shohei Ohtani +525 · 67

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:20p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 9 mph in 79°F open

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

7:20p · peak

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

8:20p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

9:20p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

10:20p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

11:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 79°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs NYY Bullpen Proxy 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 76 B +525 WARM 3 0.253 93.5 17.2% 23.9% 405 20.4% 44.4% 30.5% 23

2 Max Muncy 64 C+ +750 · 27 0.235 90.1 13.8% 21.7% 409 18.2% 10.0% 21.4% 16

3 Dalton Rushing 54 C — COOL 80 0.215 89.0 11.5% 21.3% 396 5.9% 0.0% 15.4% 14

4 Freddie Freeman 54 C +850 COOL 81 0.192 90.5 10.5% 15.0% 398 13.8% 0.0% 12.7% 26

5 Andy Pages 53 C +750 · 90 0.194 89.1 8.5% 14.9% 391 14.7% 11.1% 15.3% 17

6 Mookie Betts 48 D +950 COOL 145 0.173 90.5 8.0% 11.8% 385 10.7% 0.0% 10.9% 23

7 Teoscar Hernandez 46 D +850 COOL 168 0.163 90.2 10.2% 16.4% 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 17

8 Kyle Tucker 39 D +900 WARM 224 0.125 89.0 5.8% 7.4% 399 5.4% 0.0% 7.7% 25

9 Alex Freeland 37 D — WARM 238 0.094 88.7 5.3% 9.1% 373 2.8% 0.0% 10.0% 5

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 67 C+ +525 WARM 16 0.253 93.5 11.9% 23.6%vs RHP 405 20.4% 44.4% 29.4% 23

2 Max Muncy 58 C +750 · 40 0.235 90.1 10.7% 24.3%vs RHP 409 18.2% 10.0% 21.3% 16

3 Andy Pages 51 C +750 · 75 0.194 89.1 8.4% 21.8%vs RHP 391 14.7% 11.1% 18.6% 17

4 Dalton Rushing 50 C — COOL 84 0.215 89.0 9.7% 36.0%vs RHP 396 5.9% 0.0% 17.3% 14

5 Freddie Freeman 50 C +850 COOL 87 0.192 90.5 9.3% 17.5%vs RHP 398 13.8% 0.0% 12.7% 26

6 Mookie Betts 46 D +950 COOL 129 0.173 90.5 8.1% 18.0%vs RHP 385 10.7% 0.0% 13.3% 23

7 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +850 COOL 159 0.163 90.2 9.2% 20.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 17

8 Tommy Edman 41 D — COOL 186 0.143 89.5 7.6% 0.0%vs RHP 428 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 18

9 Kyle Tucker 39 D +900 WARM 204 0.125 89.0 6.9% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% 25

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 72 B +750 HOT 4 0.320 92.2 10.2% 36.1%vs RHP 389 27.0% 40.0% 36.4% 26

2 Max Schuemann 50 C — COOL 83 0.229 88.6 9.5% 25.0%vs RHP 415 14.3% 0.0% 18.4% 10

3 Ryan Mcmahon 49 D — WARM 92 0.166 90.8 8.6% 25.0%vs RHP 384 50.0% 0.0% 22.2% 10

4 Trent Grisham 49 D +950 WARM 100 0.180 91.1 8.5% 16.0%vs RHP 389 9.9% 11.1% 12.8% 25

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D — COOL 151 0.160 89.0 6.6% 10.6%vs RHP 379 10.0% 0.0% 10.5% 26

6 Jasson Dominguez 43 D — COOL 158 0.198 88.6 5.6% 35.7%vs RHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 27

7 Ali Sanchez 38 D — COOL 207 0.091 83.2 5.2% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 6

8 Anthony Volpe 35 D — COOL 230 0.080 87.8 5.1% 0.0%vs RHP 409 2.1% 0.0% 7.2% 8

vs Will Klein · RHP 0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 70 B +750 HOT 7 0.320 92.2 8.4% 36.1%vs RHP 389 27.0% 40.0% 35.2% 26

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C — COOL 52 0.226 86.5 7.3% 24.1%vs RHP 391 18.2% 16.7% 31.2% 11

3 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D — WARM 111 0.166 90.8 7.1% 25.0%vs RHP 384 50.0% 0.0% 21.4% 10

4 Trent Grisham 47 D +950 WARM 116 0.180 91.1 7.0% 16.0%vs RHP 389 9.9% 11.1% 12.4% 25

5 Cody Bellinger 42 D — COOL 171 0.160 89.0 5.5% 10.6%vs RHP 379 10.0% 0.0% 10.2% 26

6 Austin Wells 42 D +950 WARM 173 0.104 89.3 5.5% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.4% 25.0% 14.6% 16

7 Jose Caballero 37 D — WARM 214 0.140 83.8 4.2% 18.8%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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