5
HRs allowed
27.8%
HR rate (pool)
11.8%
Overall HR/FB
3.72
FIP
3.72
xFIP
+0.00
FIP − xFIP gap
#19
Leakiest SP today (of 34, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
39
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 39th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
0 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
33.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
81.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.5 EV · 381 ft
max EV allowed 111.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 1 — below the fade line
0 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)5
Pool HR rate27.8%
Pool HR/game day2.5
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB11.8% 39
HR/9—
FIP3.72 34
xFIP3.72
FIP − xFIP+0.00 47
Barrel% allowed33.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed81.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-25
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
5 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.5 EV · 381 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-19
9
0
111.1
2026-07-04
9
5
107.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Yankee Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.098
Wind
13 mph from NNE
Temp
68°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
4:10p
13
68°
-5
5:10p
13
68°
-5
6:10p
13
68°
-5
7:10p
13
68°
-5
8:10p
13
68°
-5
-5
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 13 mph from NNE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
318ft
short
CF
408ft
avg
RF
314ft
short
vs LHH → RF
334ft
2 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
356ft
2 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 314 ft
HRs allowed avg 381 ft · n=5
Short RF porch (314)
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
18
5
28%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about NYY Bullpen Proxy
Is NYY Bullpen Proxy likely to give up a home run tonight?
NYY Bullpen Proxy pitches tonight (BAL @ NYY at Yankee Stadium). This season he has allowed 5 home runs across 2 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has NYY Bullpen Proxy allowed this season?
NYY Bullpen Proxy has allowed 5 home runs across 2 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off NYY Bullpen Proxy?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against NYY Bullpen Proxy include Alex Jackson (1), Josh Bell (1), Kody Clemens (1) and 2 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.