TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TOR

Neutral air · 1.02×

CWS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 12:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 31 · vs Burke ⟷ Tristan Peters conv 25 · vs Yesavage → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 77

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

FADE Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 13

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tristan Peters — D ●●●●○

2 Sam Antonacci — D ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ COOL vs Burke — 0.223 · 91.3 · 10.5% 33.3% 28.7% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Yesavage — 0.240 · 90.5 · 9.5% 11.1% 16.2% F B O C 57

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.242 · 89.1 · 9.0% 11.1% 15.4% F B O C 56

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Yesavage — 0.271 · 90.5 · 8.8% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 53

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.290 · 93.9 · 10.7% 0.0% 17.6% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Yesavage Edge — 0.176 · 87.2 · 5.3% 33.3% 15.8% F B O D 44

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.179 · 88.1 · 8.0% 16.7% 21.1% F B O D 47

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.140 · 87.5 · 6.3% 25.0% 12.3% F B O D 43

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.175 · 89.5 · 4.5% 12.5% 11.4% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.113 · 86.5 · 3.0% 12.5% 8.2% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Burke — 0.133 · 85.2 · 4.3% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 35

· CWS Drew Romo COOL vs Yesavage — 0.176 · 84.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 42

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.182 · 89.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 46

· TOR Sean Keys vs Burke Edge — 0.118 · 93.5 · — 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 28

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Burke Edge — 0.141 · 86.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.132 · 86.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.8% ← leak OFF 29.5% BRK 24.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.7% 22.2% 14.6% 19.3% C 59 —

Miguel Vargas R

17.1% 12.9% 11.8% 14.9% C 57 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.5% 12.5% 13.0% 13.2% C 56 —

Randal Grichuk R

9.6% 20.0% 18.2% 13.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

130

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.5% 6.7% 5.9% 10.0% D 46 —

146

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.5% 0.0% 4.2% 5.1% D 44 —

160

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.2% 0.0% 6.8% 6.7% D 43 —

168

Drew Romo R

15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% D 42 —

177

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.0% 4.3% 0.0% 3.5% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.8% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.1% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.0% 9.5% 16.7% 14.3% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

111

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

4.0% 21.1% 13.0% 8.5% D 47 —

199

Daulton Varsho L Edge

7.8% 3.1% 6.7% 6.3% D 39 —

227

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% D 35 —

236

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.0% 2.7% 6.1% 3.3% D 33 —

239

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% D 33 —

257

Sean Keys L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vargas Montgomery Peters Antonacci Okamoto Valenzuela

Legend

attack side — vs Burke fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kazuma Okamoto — · 60

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 12:15p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 59 C — COOL 37 0.290 93.9 10.7% 38.1%vs RHP 409 16.3% 0.0% 17.6% 9

2 Miguel Vargas 57 C — · 44 0.240 90.5 9.5% 15.8%vs RHP 389 21.2% 11.1% 16.2% 29

3 Colson Montgomery 56 C — COOL 48 0.242 89.1 9.0% 25.4%vs RHP 398 25.0% 11.1% 15.4% 22

4 Randal Grichuk 53 C — COOL 67 0.271 90.5 8.8% 27.3%vs RHP 390 13.6% 0.0% 18.9% 13

5 Andrew Benintendi 46 D — COOL 130 0.182 89.1 7.5% 17.2%vs RHP 389 14.5% 0.0% 10.6% 18

6 Tristan Peters 44 D — HOT 146 0.176 87.2 5.3% 11.1%vs RHP 377 8.8% 33.3% 15.8% 24

7 Sam Antonacci 43 D — COOL 160 0.140 87.5 6.3% 15.2%vs RHP 397 11.3% 25.0% 12.3% 26

8 Drew Romo 42 D — COOL 168 0.176 84.5 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 368 4.3% 0.0% 15.1% 2

9 Braden Montgomery 41 D — COOL 177 0.175 89.5 4.5% 27.3%vs RHP 371 9.1% 12.5% 11.4% 26

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 60 C+ — COOL 30 0.223 91.3 10.5% 30.9%vs RHP 396 20.5% 33.3% 28.7% 26

2 Brandon Valenzuela 47 D — COOL 111 0.179 88.1 8.0% 24.0%vs RHP 394 12.1% 16.7% 21.1% 8

3 Daulton Varsho 39 D — · 199 0.141 86.2 7.1% 11.5%vs RHP 386 7.4% 0.0% 8.4% 28

4 Ernie Clement 35 D — · 227 0.133 85.2 4.3% 7.7%vs RHP 375 8.8% 11.1% 7.6% 36

5 Andres Gimenez 33 D — COOL 236 0.132 86.3 5.1% 11.9%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 19

6 Nathan Lukes 33 D — COOL 239 0.113 86.5 3.0% 15.2%vs RHP 378 6.6% 12.5% 8.2% 23

7 Sean Keys 28 D — · 257 0.118 93.5 — 12.5% 349 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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