TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.86×

SF @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 3 mph slight_out 68°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:10p

+5 ↑

2:10p

+5 ↑

3:10p

+5 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +5

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 27 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Weston Wilson conv 55 · vs Ray → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +425 C ●●●●○

2 Casey Schmitt +750 C ●●●●○

3 Willy Adames +700 D ●●●●○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 71

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Weston Wilson +850 D ●●●●●

2 Mitch Garver +700 D ●●●●●

3 Cole Young +1000 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Gilbert Edge +425 0.225 · 92.2 · 10.8% 30.0% 23.8% F B O C 52

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Gilbert +750 0.213 · 89.8 · 11.3% 30.0% 20.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· SEA Weston Wilson HOT vs Ray Edge +850 0.131 · 86.5 · 6.8% 100.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· SEA Mitch Garver vs Ray Edge +700 0.150 · 90.2 · 8.2% 50.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· SF Willy Adames vs Gilbert +700 0.198 · 88.4 · 9.8% 30.0% 19.2% F B O D 47

· SEA Cole Young vs Ray +1000 0.153 · 88.4 · 6.9% 33.3% 12.6% F B O D 41

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Gilbert Edge +700 0.208 · 92.4 · 11.3% 20.0% 21.0% F B O D 49

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Ray Edge +700 0.174 · 91.1 · 8.5% 22.2% 16.6% F B O D 45

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Gilbert +575 0.189 · 92.5 · 12.6% 10.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Ray Edge +600 0.169 · 90.2 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Ray — 0.191 · 86.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 40

· SF Drew Cavanaugh COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.000 · 86.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Ray Edge +425 0.140 · 88.0 · 9.9% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 39

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.132 · 87.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.126 · 87.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 23

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Ray +950 0.102 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.8% ← leak BRK 31.4% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.7% 8.5% 9.8% 12.1% C 52 +425

Casey Schmitt R

8.9% 18.6% 17.4% 12.5% C 51 +750

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.3% 6.7% 20.0% 13.0% D 49 +700

112

Willy Adames R

7.6% 10.6% 13.6% 8.9% D 47 +700

137

Heliot Ramos R

14.6% 15.5% 17.4% 15.3% D 45 +575

252

Drew Cavanaugh L Edge

6.7% 11.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 30 —

261

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.4% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 —

263

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.2% ← leak BRK 36.5% OFF 16.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

134

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.5% 9.9% 4.7% 8.3% D 45 +700

147

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

10.0% 7.4% 9.4% 9.2% D 44 +600

176

Cole Young L

5.8% 9.7% 0.0% 5.8% D 41 +1000

187

Colt Emerson L

6.2% 7.7% 5.6% 6.5% D 40 —

190

Mitch Garver R Edge

12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% D 40 +700

203

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.3% 12.2% 10.8% 10.9% D 39 +425

208

Weston Wilson R Edge

3.2% 16.7% 0.0% 5.0% D 38 +850

250

Josh Naylor L

4.6% 7.6% 2.0% 4.8% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Schmitt Eldridge Adames Arozarena Young Garver Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Rafael Devers +425 · 52

Casey Schmitt +750 · 51

Willy Adames +700 · 47

Bryce Eldridge +700 · 49

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.86× Wind 3 mph slight_out 68°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

1:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

4:10p

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.86× 68°F, wind 3 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 52 C +425 · 70 0.225 92.2 10.8% 27.0%vs RHP 401 17.9% 30.0% 23.8% 26

2 Casey Schmitt 51 C +750 · 79 0.213 89.8 11.3% 20.3%vs RHP 396 17.2% 30.0% 20.2% 32

3 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +700 · 93 0.208 92.4 11.3% 22.6%vs RHP 398 21.9% 20.0% 21.0% 24

4 Willy Adames 47 D +700 · 112 0.198 88.4 9.8% 22.2%vs RHP 388 16.0% 30.0% 19.2% 26

5 Heliot Ramos 45 D +575 · 137 0.189 92.5 12.6% 18.2%vs RHP 404 11.5% 10.0% 14.4% 29

6 Drew Cavanaugh 30 D — COOL 252 0.000 86.5 8.9% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 12

7 Jung Hoo Lee 27 D — COOL 261 0.132 87.2 4.9% 8.5%vs RHP 378 4.5% 0.0% 6.5% 30

8 Luis Arraez 23 D — COOL 263 0.126 87.0 2.3% 3.5%vs RHP 367 3.1% 0.0% 5.9% 39

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Randy Arozarena 45 D +700 COOL 134 0.174 91.1 8.5% 20.0%vs LHP 393 11.5% 22.2% 16.6% 24

2 Julio Rodríguez 44 D +600 WARM 147 0.169 90.2 9.0% 28.6%vs LHP 410 15.9% 0.0% 13.1% 3

3 Cole Young 41 D +1000 · 176 0.153 88.4 6.9% 16.7%vs LHP 389 11.7% 33.3% 12.6% 27

4 Colt Emerson 40 D — COOL 187 0.191 86.2 7.6% 33.3%vs LHP 369 12.9% 0.0% 11.2% 13

5 Mitch Garver 40 D +700 WARM 190 0.150 90.2 8.2% 10.0%vs LHP 390 11.5% 50.0% 9.2% 6

6 Cal Raleigh 39 D +425 COOL 203 0.140 88.0 9.9% 7.1%vs LHP 390 12.0% 0.0% 6.6% 19

7 Weston Wilson 38 D +850 HOT 208 0.131 86.5 6.8% 22.2%vs LHP 382 12.5% 100.0% 9.5% 2

8 Josh Naylor 31 D +950 · 250 0.102 87.6 6.6% 6.2%vs LHP 390 7.7% 0.0% 5.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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