12
HRs allowed
8.1%
HR rate (pool)
14.9%
Overall HR/FB
4.89
FIP
4.5
xFIP
+0.39
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
69
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 69th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
64.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.8 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 112.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Robbie Ray.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
36.6%
81.4
33.5°
10
-0.1
Slider Breaking
26.8%
80.3
10.1°
4
+0.1
Changeup Offspeed
16.3%
80.2
16.6°
2
-1.7
Sinker Hard
10.6%
86.1
24.1°
0
-0.7
Knuckle Curve Breaking
9.7%
81.7
9.2°
0
-2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups149
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate8.1%
Pool HR/game day0.71
Top-15 matchups10
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB14.9% 69
HR/9—
FIP4.89 77
xFIP4.5
FIP − xFIP+0.39 69
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed64.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 36.6% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle33.5°
HRs allowed10
Pitches688
Slider
Breaking · 26.8% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle10.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches503
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.3% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.2 mph
Avg launch angle16.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches306
Sinker
Hard · 10.6% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.1 mph
Avg launch angle24.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches199
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 9.7% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle9.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches183
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Robbie Ray.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.8 EV · 395 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
0
108.8
2026-07-04
9
0
101.0
2026-06-28
8
0
110.3
2026-06-23
8
0
108.2
2026-06-10
9
2
105.7
2026-06-05
9
1
105.6
2026-05-31
9
0
107.9
2026-05-24
9
2
105.6
2026-05-18
9
1
108.1
2026-05-13
9
0
108.1
2026-05-01
9
2
112.9
2026-04-25
9
0
110.1
2026-04-19
9
1
109.6
2026-04-14
7
1
107.1
2026-04-07
9
0
99.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Robbie Ray isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.