21
HRs allowed
8.8%
HR rate (pool)
13.9%
Overall HR/FB
4.81
FIP
4.64
xFIP
+0.17
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
57
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 57th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
14.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 393 ft
max EV allowed 112.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Robbie Ray.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
31.3%
82.0
32.8°
13
+0.3
Slider Breaking
23.5%
80.9
11.7°
5
+0.4
Changeup Offspeed
18.1%
81.2
13.6°
3
-1.7
Sinker Hard
15.8%
83.5
22.6°
2
+0.3
Knuckle Curve Breaking
11.2%
82.3
13.2°
1
-1.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups238
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate8.8%
Pool HR/game day0.75
Top-15 matchups14
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.9% 57
HR/9—
FIP4.81 77
xFIP4.64
FIP − xFIP+0.17 58
Barrel% allowed14.7%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 31.3% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle32.8°
HRs allowed13
Pitches935
Slider
Breaking · 23.5% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches702
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.1% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches541
Sinker
Hard · 15.8% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle22.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches472
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 11.2% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.3 mph
Avg launch angle13.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches334
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Robbie Ray.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 393 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
8
0
104.0
2026-09-16
9
1
102.6
2026-09-11
4
1
109.2
2026-09-05
9
0
108.0
2026-08-30
9
2
111.3
2026-08-24
7
0
104.9
2026-08-18
9
2
108.7
2026-08-12
9
1
112.3
2026-08-07
8
1
108.6
2026-07-25
9
0
110.6
2026-07-19
8
1
108.0
2026-07-10
9
0
108.8
2026-07-04
9
0
101.0
2026-06-28
8
0
110.3
2026-06-23
8
0
108.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Robbie Ray isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Robbie Ray isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
92
7
8%
18
4
22%
33
2
6%
9
2
22%
27
1
4%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Robbie Ray
How many home runs has Robbie Ray allowed this season?
Robbie Ray has allowed 21 home runs across 28 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Robbie Ray?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Robbie Ray include Caleb Durbin (2), Curtis Mead (2), Junior Caminero (2) and 35 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.