17
HRs allowed
8.5%
HR rate (pool)
14.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.82
FIP
4.59
xFIP
+0.23
FIP − xFIP gap
#17
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
63
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 63th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
15.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.5 EV · 393 ft
max EV allowed 112.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 4 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 46.0%
BRK 35.6%
OFF 18.5%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 8 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (46.0% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
33.1%
81.4
33.1°
12
+0.3
Slider Breaking
24.5%
81.1
10.1°
4
-0.0
Changeup Offspeed
18.5%
80.9
14.6°
3
-1.6
Sinker Hard
12.9%
85.5
24.6°
1
+0.7
Knuckle Curve Breaking
11.1%
82.8
12.0°
0
-2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups199
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate8.5%
Pool HR/game day0.74
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB14.3% 63
HR/9—
FIP4.82 77
xFIP4.59
FIP − xFIP+0.23 62
Barrel% allowed15.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 33.1% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle33.1°
HRs allowed12
Pitches827
Slider
Breaking · 24.5% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.1 mph
Avg launch angle10.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches611
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.5% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches462
Sinker
Hard · 12.9% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle24.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches321
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 11.1% usage
-2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle12.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches276
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.5 EV · 393 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
7
0
104.9
2026-08-18
9
2
108.7
2026-08-12
9
1
112.3
2026-08-07
8
1
108.6
2026-07-25
9
0
110.6
2026-07-19
8
1
108.0
2026-07-10
9
0
108.8
2026-07-04
9
0
101.0
2026-06-28
8
0
110.3
2026-06-23
8
0
108.2
2026-06-10
9
2
105.7
2026-06-05
9
1
105.6
2026-05-31
9
0
107.9
2026-05-24
9
2
105.6
2026-05-18
9
1
108.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Tropicana Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.081
Wind
0 mph from —
Temp
—
Roof
—
TimeWindTempFIT
1:40p
0
—
+2
2:40p
0
—
+2
3:40p
0
—
+2
4:40p
0
—
+2
5:40p
0
—
+2
+2
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 0 mph
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
315ft
short
CF
404ft
avg
RF
322ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
340ft
2 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
345ft
9 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: LF 315 ft
HRs allowed avg 393 ft · n=17
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
88
6
7%
24
2
8%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Robbie Ray
Is Robbie Ray likely to give up a home run tonight?
Robbie Ray pitches tonight (SD @ TB at Tropicana Field). This season he has allowed 17 home runs across 23 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Robbie Ray allowed this season?
Robbie Ray has allowed 17 home runs across 23 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Robbie Ray?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Robbie Ray include Caleb Durbin (2), Curtis Mead (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 32 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.