18
HRs allowed
8.8%
HR rate (pool)
9.2%
Overall HR/FB
2.95
FIP
3.77
xFIP
-0.82
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
18
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 18th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
15.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.1 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 113.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Casey Mize.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.1%
85.4
36.0°
6
+0.0
Slider Breaking
27.5%
82.2
24.4°
6
-0.2
Splitter Offspeed
23.7%
80.1
-2.8°
2
+1.0
Sinker Hard
9.5%
86.0
19.0°
3
+2.4
Slurve Breaking
4.2%
79.7
8.0°
1
+4.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups204
HRs allowed (pool)18
Pool HR rate8.8%
Pool HR/game day0.72
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB9.2% 18
HR/9—
FIP2.95 11
xFIP3.77
FIP − xFIP-0.82 6
Barrel% allowed15.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 35.1% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle36.0°
HRs allowed6
Pitches738
Slider
Breaking · 27.5% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle24.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches579
Splitter
Offspeed · 23.7% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle-2.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches498
Sinker
Hard · 9.5% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches200
Slurve
Breaking · 4.2% usage
+4.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle8.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches88
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Casey Mize.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
18 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.1 EV · 387 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-19
6
1
103.1
2026-09-14
9
1
108.3
2026-09-08
7
0
113.0
2026-09-02
8
2
113.3
2026-08-28
9
2
109.1
2026-08-22
8
2
107.2
2026-08-16
9
0
97.5
2026-08-10
7
1
105.0
2026-08-05
6
0
104.5
2026-07-25
8
2
105.3
2026-07-19
9
0
108.8
2026-07-11
7
0
107.5
2026-07-05
8
2
107.0
2026-06-29
8
0
103.0
2026-06-23
8
0
105.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Casey Mize isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Casey Mize isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
68
4
6%
28
4
14%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 14. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Casey Mize
How many home runs has Casey Mize allowed this season?
Casey Mize has allowed 18 home runs across 25 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Casey Mize?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Casey Mize include Byron Buxton (2), Luke Keaschall (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 33 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.