7
HRs allowed
5.9%
HR rate (pool)
8.7%
Overall HR/FB
2.79
FIP
3.67
xFIP
-0.88
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
15
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 15th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.4 EV · 390 ft
max EV allowed 110.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Casey Mize.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.1%
84.6
38.7°
1
-0.3
Slider Breaking
24.8%
83.2
27.1°
4
-1.1
Splitter Offspeed
24.2%
80.4
-7.6°
0
-0.5
Sinker Hard
10.9%
84.4
21.5°
0
-1.8
Slurve Breaking
5.0%
80.8
0.7°
0
+0.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups118
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate5.9%
Pool HR/game day0.5
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB8.7% 15
HR/9—
FIP2.79 10
xFIP3.67
FIP − xFIP-0.88 7
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 35.1% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle38.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches414
Slider
Breaking · 24.8% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle27.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches292
Splitter
Offspeed · 24.2% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.4 mph
Avg launch angle-7.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches285
Sinker
Hard · 10.9% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle21.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches129
Slurve
Breaking · 5.0% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.8 mph
Avg launch angle0.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches59
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Casey Mize.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.4 EV · 390 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
7
0
107.5
2026-07-05
8
2
107.0
2026-06-29
8
0
103.0
2026-06-23
8
0
105.5
2026-06-17
7
1
110.5
2026-06-14
8
0
—
2026-05-27
9
0
102.1
2026-05-21
9
1
104.0
2026-05-16
9
1
110.4
2026-04-28
9
1
108.2
2026-04-22
9
0
104.2
2026-04-17
9
0
105.8
2026-04-11
9
0
109.5
2026-04-06
9
1
104.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Casey Mize isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.