Susceptible Pitchers

The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_17 - 2026-07-14T17:00:11-04:00

HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-14

50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 533 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35	Score ? Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 533 qualified pitchers.	Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view.	HRs	IP	HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.134. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9.	HR/FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Pool
1	Dean Kremer BAL 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	73	+5.0	9 76th	21.3	0.423	34.6%	6.95	6.95	3.36	+3.59	7/26
2	Shane Bieber TOR 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	67	+2.0	7	17.7	0.395	30.4%	8.52	8.52	5.40	+3.12	4/14
3	Luis Morales ATH 🎯	+2	⚠️ High	66	+2.9	5	12.0	0.417	31.2%	11.32	11.32	7.98	+3.34	4/17
4	Chris Roycroft STL 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	64	+0.0	4	12.3	0.325	50.0%	7.95	7.95	4.73	+3.22	·
5	Steven Cruz KC 🎯	-2	⚠️ High	63	-2.0	9 76th	31.3	0.288	34.6%	5.96	5.96	3.52	+2.44	4/15
6	Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	62	+1.8	22 99th	71.0	0.310	23.2%	6.49	6.49	4.55	+1.94	16/115
7	Jeffrey Springs ATH 🎯	+1	⚠️ High	61	+2.4	26 100th	98.7	0.263	20.2%	5.98	5.98	4.59	+1.39	29/151
8	Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	59	+0.0	5	10.7	0.467	26.3%	8.76	8.76	5.45	+3.31	·
9	Kodai Senga NYM 🎯	+1	⚠️ High	58	+1.4	12 87th	38.7	0.310	28.6%	7.00	7.00	4.66	+2.34	9/79
10	Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	58	+0.0	4	10.3	0.388	33.3%	8.39	8.39	5.16	+3.23	·
11	Taijuan Walker PHI	EVEN	⚠️ High	58	+2.8	8	22.7	0.352	24.2%	7.82	7.82	5.51	+2.31	4/18
12	Brady Singer CIN	+1	⚠️ High	56	+2.1	21 99th	92.3	0.228	22.6%	5.70	5.70	4.31	+1.39	25/142
13	Max Scherzer TOR	+4	⚠️ High	56	+2.8	9 76th	26.7	0.337	22.5%	7.83	7.83	5.79	+2.04	10/44
14	Zack Littell WSH	EVEN	⚠️ High	56	+2.1	23 100th	88.3	0.260	18.1%	6.20	6.20	5.05	+1.15	20/120
15	Hurston Waldrep ATL	EVEN	⚠️ High	55	+1.4	3	10.7	0.280	37.5%	8.48	8.48	6.00	+2.48	1/9
16	Merrill Kelly AZ	EVEN	⚠️ High	55	+1.7	22 99th	93.7	0.235	21.0%	6.27	6.27	4.96	+1.31	16/115
17	Aaron Bummer ATL	-5	📊 Elevated	55	+0.0	6	16.7	0.359	30.0%	8.24	8.24	5.44	+2.80	·
18	Ryan Weiss HOU	+1	📊 Elevated	54	+1.4	8	26.0	0.308	27.6%	7.15	7.15	4.89	+2.26	2/18
19	Edward Cabrera CHC	+1	📊 Elevated	54	+1.6	17 96th	75.0	0.227	25.0%	5.56	5.56	4.03	+1.53	16/122
20	Roki Sasaki LAD	+1	📊 Elevated	53	+1.6	19 98th	82.7	0.230	22.1%	5.82	5.82	4.46	+1.36	14/119
21	Valente Bellozo COL	-3	📊 Elevated	53	+0.0	5	13.7	0.365	27.8%	8.62	8.62	5.93	+2.69	·
22	Aaron Nola PHI	EVEN	📊 Elevated	51	+1.9	21 99th	99.3	0.211	19.1%	4.82	4.82	3.80	+1.02	20/150
23	Mike Burrows HOU	EVEN	📊 Elevated	51	+2.1	21 99th	99.3	0.211	17.9%	5.53	5.53	4.62	+0.91	24/144
24	Miles Mikolas WSH	EVEN	📊 Elevated	50	+1.4	20 98th	93.7	0.213	19.0%	5.50	5.50	4.47	+1.03	9/77
25	Trey Gibson BAL	+4	📊 Elevated	50	+2.3	7	32.7	0.214	29.2%	6.48	6.48	4.85	+1.63	8/43
26	Cole Ragans KC	+1	📊 Elevated	50	+1.9	10 80th	39.3	0.254	23.3%	5.67	5.67	4.07	+1.60	11/71
27	Zac Gallen AZ	-2	📊 Elevated	49	+1.3	21 99th	101.7	0.206	18.8%	5.73	5.73	4.76	+0.97	17/168
28	Shota Imanaga CHC	+2	📊 Elevated	49	+1.9	22 99th	111.7	0.197	16.7%	4.63	4.63	3.91	+0.72	27/180
29	Zebby Matthews MIN	+4	📊 Elevated	48	+2.5	14 91th	66.0	0.212	19.2%	5.18	5.18	4.15	+1.03	16/73
30	Tanner Bibee CLE	+2	📊 Elevated	48	+1.5	22 99th	116.0	0.190	16.7%	4.99	4.99	4.30	+0.69	23/175
31	Trevor Martin TB	-5	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	4	11.7	0.342	25.0%	7.94	7.94	5.63	+2.31	·
32	Justin Lawrence PIT	-4	📊 Elevated	47	+0.0	9 76th	36.3	0.248	28.1%	6.92	6.92	5.08	+1.84	·
33	Tony Santillan CIN	-2	📊 Elevated	47	+0.0	9 76th	31.3	0.288	24.3%	6.31	6.31	4.42	+1.89	·
34	Tanner Gordon COL	+4	📊 Elevated	47	+2.2	12 87th	50.3	0.239	18.2%	5.16	5.16	4.10	+1.06	8/41
35	Eric Lauer TOR	-1	📊 Elevated	47	+1.8	18 97th	75.3	0.239	15.0%	6.16	6.16	5.54	+0.62	15/104
36	Nathan Eovaldi TEX	+1	📊 Elevated	46	+1.2	19 98th	115.0	0.165	19.8%	4.07	4.07	3.23	+0.84	16/156
37	Ryan Weathers NYY	+3	📊 Elevated	45	+1.4	17 96th	102.0	0.167	20.7%	3.96	3.96	3.05	+0.91	16/155
38	Walker Buehler SD	+3	📊 Elevated	45	+1.3	16 95th	91.0	0.176	20.3%	4.91	4.91	3.98	+0.93	18/162
39	Brandon Sproat MIL	+4	📊 Elevated	45	+1.3	15 93th	83.3	0.180	20.5%	5.08	5.08	4.11	+0.97	20/166
40	Jonathan Hernández LAD	-5	📊 Elevated	45	+0.0	5	17.3	0.289	25.0%	7.49	7.49	5.53	+1.96	·
41	Germán Márquez SD	+6	📊 Elevated	45	+1.8	11 84th	44.3	0.248	18.6%	6.31	6.31	5.16	+1.15	8/67
42	Tim Hill NYY	-6	📊 Elevated	45	+0.0	8	38.0	0.211	29.6%	5.89	5.89	4.26	+1.63	·
43	Andrew Painter PHI	+6	📊 Elevated	45	+2.1	14 91th	64.3	0.218	16.5%	5.59	5.59	4.82	+0.77	19/114
44	Mitchell Parker WSH	-5	📊 Elevated	45	+0.0	11 84th	44.0	0.250	22.4%	5.51	5.51	4.00	+1.51	·
45	Spencer Strider ATL	+5	📊 Elevated	45	+2.1	9 76th	37.7	0.239	19.1%	5.48	5.48	4.33	+1.15	12/70
46	Gavin Williams CLE	-2	📊 Elevated	44	+1.1	18 97th	116.3	0.155	20.5%	3.84	3.84	3.01	+0.83	15/172
47	Kyle Freeland COL	-1	📊 Elevated	44	+1.2	18 97th	91.0	0.198	16.5%	4.73	4.73	4.03	+0.70	14/144
48	Cionel Pérez NYM	NEW	📊 Elevated	44	+2.4	7	37.0	0.189	24.1%	5.01	5.01	3.78	+1.23	3/16
49	Ryan Johnson LAA	NEW	📊 Elevated	44	+1.7	9 76th	37.0	0.243	19.1%	5.91	5.91	4.73	+1.18	7/49
50	Ryne Nelson AZ	NEW	📊 Elevated	44	+1.5	18 97th	88.3	0.204	14.8%	5.19	5.19	4.69	+0.50	14/120

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How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (533 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)

The full target list is behind the plate

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