Slate · 2026-09-22

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2026-09-22

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#2 Matt Olson vs Brandon Williamson FIP 6.24 HR/FB 30.0% #3 Elly De La Cruz vs JR Ritchie FIP 5.73 HR/FB 21.9% #4 Pete Alonso vs Max Scherzer FIP 5.54 HR/FB 22.7% #13 Eugenio Suarez vs JR Ritchie FIP 5.73 HR/FB 20.0% #14 Coby Mayo vs Max Scherzer FIP 5.54 HR/FB 22.7%

📦 STACK JR Ritchie FIP 5.73 HR/FB 21.9% → #3 Elly De La Cruz, #13 Eugenio Suarez

📦 STACK Max Scherzer FIP 5.54 HR/FB 22.7% → #4 Pete Alonso, #14 Coby Mayo

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-09-22. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.7% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	72	·	Janson Junk (RHP) MIA @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	45	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	MIA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.26 IP1382.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-60 Weather · Wrigley Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp62°F Wind9 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-60 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
2	·Matt Olson (L)	72	·	Brandon Williamson (LHP) CIN @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	40	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.36 FIP4.87 IP1340.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph N Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Elly De La Cruz (S)	70	·	JR Ritchie (RHP) CIN @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.14 FIP4.20 IP1290.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph N Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Elly De La Cruz — Home Run OffJR Ritchie Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle24.0° Distance368 ft StadiumTruist Park
4	·Pete Alonso (R)	69	·	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	40	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.01 FIP3.85 IP1286.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-53 Weather · Camden Yards cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp60°F Wind11 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier-4 Spray/Wind-53 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note60°F, wind 11 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast)
5	·Ben Rice (L)	68	·	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	39	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.21 FIP4.05 IP1337.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-45 Weather · Yankee Stadium cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind9 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-45 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note65°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
6	·Kyle Schwarber (L)	68	·	Dustin May (RHP) MIL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	45	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	MIL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.05 FIP3.67 IP1283.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-47 Weather · Citizens Bank Park cool air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp62°F Wind9 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-47 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
7	·Ben Rice (L)	65	·	Drew Rasmussen (RHP) TB @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	39	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.21 FIP4.05 IP1337.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-44 Weather · Yankee Stadium cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind9 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-44 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note65°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
8	·Junior Caminero (R)	65	·	Carlos Rodón (LHP) TB @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	41	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.05 FIP3.78 IP1392.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-52 Weather · Yankee Stadium cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind9 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-52 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note65°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
9	·Max Muncy (L)	65	·	Michael King (RHP) SD @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.08 FIP4.12 IP1304.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind2 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 2 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
10	·Hunter Goodman (R)	64	·	Michael Soroka (RHP) AZ @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	39	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.16 FIP4.36 IP1355.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
11	·Jake Bauers (L)	63	·	Zack Wheeler (RHP) MIL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.20 FIP3.83 IP1345.7 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-43 Weather · Citizens Bank Park cool air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp62°F Wind9 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-43 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
12	·Coby Mayo (R)	63	·	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	24	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.01 FIP3.85 IP1286.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-48 Weather · Camden Yards cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp60°F Wind11 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier-4 Spray/Wind-48 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note60°F, wind 11 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast)
13	·Shea Langeliers (R)	63	·	Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.2×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.05 FIP4.16 IP1461.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75°F Wind6 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note75°F, wind 6 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Munetaka Murakami (L)	62	·	Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) CWS @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.30 FIP4.73 IP1373.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-35 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-35 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)	Munetaka Murakami — Home Run OffTony Gonsolin Exit Velo109.1 mph Angle24.0° Distance373 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium
15	·Corbin Carroll (L)	62	·	Kyle Freeland (LHP) AZ @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.41 FIP4.90 IP1411.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Yordan Alvarez (L)	61	·	Logan Gilbert (RHP) HOU @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	41	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	SEA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.25 FIP4.06 IP1363.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · T-Mobile Park mild air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp66°F Wind3 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note66°F, wind 3 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)	Yordan Alvarez — Home Run OffCarlos Vargas Exit Velo109.5 mph Angle25.0° Distance386 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park
17	Zack Gelof (R)	61	·	Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.05 FIP4.16 IP1461.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75°F Wind6 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note75°F, wind 6 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)	Zack Gelof — Home Run OffBlake Weiman Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle31.0° Distance411 ft StadiumSutter Health Park
18	·Carter Jensen (L)	61	·	Anthony Kay (LHP) CWS @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/91.06 FIP4.16 IP1359.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-35 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-35 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
19	·Juan Soto (L)	61	·	MacKenzie Gore (LHP) NYM @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.21 FIP4.16 IP1313.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-19 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93°F Wind8 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 8 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
20	·James Wood (L)	61	·	Drew Anderson (RHP) WSH @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV95.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12.5×	DET Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.06 FIP4.08 IP1453.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+8 Weather · Comerica Park cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63°F Wind9 mph ENE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+8 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note63°F, wind 9 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
21	·Corey Seager (L)	60	·	Sean Manaea (LHP) NYM @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.8×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.19 FIP4.19 IP1434.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-19 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93°F Wind8 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-19 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 8 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
22	·Sal Stewart (R)	60	·	JR Ritchie (RHP) CIN @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	32	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.8×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.14 FIP4.20 IP1290.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph N Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
23	·Junior Caminero (R)	59	·	Max Fried (LHP) TB @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	41	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%6.3% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.05 FIP3.78 IP1392.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-51 Weather · Yankee Stadium cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind9 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-51 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note65°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
24	·Miguel Vargas (R)	59	·	Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) CWS @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.30 FIP4.73 IP1373.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-33 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-33 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note71°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Kyle Stowers (L)	59	·	Shota Imanaga (LHP) MIA @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.2% HR/91.49 FIP4.73 IP1275.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-60 Weather · Wrigley Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp62°F Wind9 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-60 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)	Kyle Stowers — Home Run OffAaron Civale Exit Velo106.1 mph Angle39.0° Distance372 ft StadiumWrigley Field
26	·Drake Baldwin (L)	59	·	Brandon Williamson (LHP) CIN @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	24	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.2×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.36 FIP4.87 IP1340.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82°F Wind2 mph N Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Nolan Arenado (R)	58	·	Kyle Freeland (LHP) AZ @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV85.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.41 FIP4.90 IP1411.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Nolan Arenado — Home Run OffZach Agnos Exit Velo106.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance421 ft StadiumCoors Field
28	·Zach Neto (R)	58	·	Brady Basso (LHP) LAA @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.48 FIP4.89 IP1402.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+32 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp75°F Wind6 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+32 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note75°F, wind 6 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
29	·Jake Burger (R)	58	·	Sean Manaea (LHP) NYM @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.19 FIP4.19 IP1434.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp93°F Wind8 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 8 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
30	·Jackson Chourio (R)	57	·	Zack Wheeler (RHP) MIL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	24	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.20 FIP3.83 IP1345.7 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-37 Weather · Citizens Bank Park cool air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp62°F Wind9 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-37 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.7%

▼ -3.2 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 18.3% prior 15d

Results · 2026-09-22

22 HRs

31%

7 caught / 22 HRs

in top 50

#3 Elly De La Cruz

31.0%

🟡

#7 Yordan Álvarez

26.7%

🔵

#13 Eugenio Suárez

29.8%

🔵

#16 Munetaka Murakami

27.1%

🔵

#18 Zack Gelof

22.6%

🔵

#25 Kyle Stowers

16.1%

🟠

#28 Nolan Arenado

29.5%

🟠

Missed

Randal Grichuk Mickey Moniak Christian Walker CJ Abrams Cody Bellinger +10 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.2%

B 20.1%

C+ 17.2%

C 13.9%

D 9.1%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-09-22

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.