TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.98×

MIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 8 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph slight_out 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:45p

-3 ↑

7:45p

-3 ↑

8:45p

-3 ↑

9:45p

-3 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Drew Gilbert conv 20 · vs Bradley ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 15 · vs Molina → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

FADE Anthony Molina RHP · SF

leak 39

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — D ●●○○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 14.5% · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Bradley Edge — 0.152 · 86.7 · 7.4% 25.0% 16.0% F B O D 39

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.224 · 91.8 · 9.1% 15.4% 14.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Josh Bell vs Molina Edge — 0.163 · 89.8 · 8.5% 16.7% 10.5% F B O D 41

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.176 · 88.2 · 5.6% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 38

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Molina — 0.154 · 89.8 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.094 · 89.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Molina — 0.108 · 85.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Molina — 0.087 · 86.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Anthony Molina — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Taj Bradley — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 8 mph slight_out 63°F open

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

63°F

6:45p · peak

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

63°F

7:45p

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

63°F

8:45p

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

63°F

9:45p

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

63°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 63°F, wind 8 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Anthony Molina · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 49 D — COOL 90 0.224 91.8 9.1% 20.8%vs RHP 390 17.3% 15.4% 14.5% 35

2 Josh Bell 41 D — · 155 0.163 89.8 8.5% 20.0%vs RHP 407 11.8% 16.7% 10.5% 35

3 Royce Lewis 39 D — COOL 170 0.154 89.8 8.9% 14.9%vs RHP 402 12.5% 0.0% 7.8% 30

4 Brooks Lee 38 D — COOL 183 0.176 88.2 5.6% 20.0%vs RHP 375 16.0% 8.3% 9.8% 36

5 Victor Caratini 27 D — COOL 244 0.094 89.4 6.9% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 18

6 Luke Keaschall 27 D — COOL 246 0.108 85.4 4.9% 9.5%vs RHP 378 6.6% 0.0% 6.1% 39

7 Austin Martin 25 D — COOL 249 0.087 86.8 4.7% 4.0%vs RHP 394 2.7% 0.0% 5.6% 10

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 1 batter

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Drew Gilbert 39 D — HOT 169 0.152 86.7 7.4% 19.2%vs RHP 392 8.1% 25.0% 16.0% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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