TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.74×

CLE @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph in 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

-15 ↑

6:45p

-15 ↑

7:45p

-15 ↑

8:45p

-15 ↑

9:45p

-15 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -15 FIT

Best of game Jahmai Jones conv 20 · vs Messick ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 26 · vs Tolle → edge: Travis Bazzana

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 66

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jahmai Jones — D ●●●○○

2 Roman Anthony — D ●●○○○

3 Wilyer Abreu — D ●●○○○

FADE Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 39

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Jo Adell — D ●●○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Travis Bazzana: Match 15.7% · 14D pace 36.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 18 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana ✶ vs Tolle — 0.161 · 87.8 · 5.7% 36.4% 15.7% F B O D 40

· BOS Jahmai Jones vs Messick Edge — 0.176 · 91.4 · 7.5% 20.0% 19.4% F B O D 41

· CLE Jo Adell vs Tolle Edge — 0.160 · 90.1 · 7.5% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 41

· BOS Roman Anthony vs Messick — 0.143 · 92.2 · 7.9% 18.2% 10.0% F B O D 38

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Messick — 0.201 · 89.9 · 8.2% 10.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Tolle Edge — 0.210 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 21.3% F B O D 39

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Messick Edge — 0.137 · 86.7 · 5.3% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.134 · 83.1 · 3.9% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 29

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Tolle — 0.166 · 91.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 34

· CLE David Fry vs Tolle Edge — 0.160 · 86.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 15.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Tolle — 0.065 · 83.7 · 1.6% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 18

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 34

· BOS Adley Rutschman COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.179 · 88.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· BOS Isiah Kiner-Falefa COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.073 · 82.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 25

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.139 · 88.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.130 · 87.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

· CLE Austin Hedges vs Tolle Edge — 0.120 · 86.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· BOS Nate Eaton COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.111 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Payton Tolle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Adell Bazzana Jones Anthony

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jahmai Jones — · 41

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph in 60°F open

-15

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

6:45p · peak

-15

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

7:45p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

8:45p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

9:45p

-15

↑

13 mph · in

64°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.74× 60°F, wind 7 mph NE (in) — modifier: -2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jo Adell 41 D — WARM 148 0.160 90.1 7.5% 34.2%vs LHP 417 13.6% 18.2% 13.6% 32

2 Travis Bazzana ✶ 40 D — WARM 159 0.161 87.8 5.7% 7.4%vs LHP 393 13.1% 36.4% 15.7% 33

3 Angel Martinez 39 D — WARM 163 0.210 87.6 7.0% 23.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 22

4 David Fry 36 D — WARM 197 0.160 86.2 6.4% 21.1%vs LHP 384 6.7% 0.0% 15.9% 9

5 Chase Delauter 34 D — · 207 0.166 91.4 6.3% 16.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 27

6 Jose Ramirez 29 D — COOL 239 0.139 88.5 5.3% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 37

7 Austin Hedges 29 D — WARM 240 0.120 86.1 5.1% 9.1%vs LHP 387 6.0% 0.0% 6.5% 10

8 Brayan Rocchio 29 D — COOL 242 0.130 87.0 4.3% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.3% 0.0% 6.7% 29

9 Steven Kwan 18 D — COOL 252 0.065 83.7 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.1% 9.1% 6.5% 39

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 45 D — WARM 125 0.201 89.9 8.2% 15.0%vs LHP 406 15.3% 10.0% 11.5% 27

2 Jahmai Jones 41 D — · 147 0.176 91.4 7.5% 24.0%vs LHP 406 8.7% 20.0% 19.4% 10

3 Roman Anthony 38 D — · 177 0.143 92.2 7.9% 14.7% 397 8.8% 18.2% 10.0% 33

4 Adley Rutschman 37 D — COOL 186 0.179 88.8 6.1% 10.0%vs LHP 395 10.1% 0.0% 9.7% 25

5 Andruw Monasterio 34 D — COOL 210 0.145 87.7 6.0% 16.1%vs LHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 10.8% 3

6 Nick Sogard 33 D — WARM 220 0.137 86.7 5.3% 16.7%vs LHP 381 11.8% 10.0% 8.2% 29

7 Nate Eaton 32 D — COOL 230 0.111 87.7 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 11

8 Caleb Durbin 29 D — COOL 241 0.134 83.1 3.9% 14.3%vs LHP 376 8.2% 9.1% 7.8% 29

9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 25 D — COOL 248 0.073 82.7 3.5% 20.0%vs LHP 377 6.1% 0.0% 8.2% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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