TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.17×

CIN @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:15p

-3 ↑

8:15p

-3 ↑

9:15p

-3 ↑

10:15p

-3 ↑

11:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Matt Olson conv 28 · vs Williamson ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 32 · vs Ritchie → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Brandon Williamson LHP · CIN

leak 97

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin — C ●●●○○

3 Ronald Acuna — C ●●○○○

FADE JR Ritchie RHP · ATL

leak 89

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — B ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

3 Sal Stewart — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 31.9% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Ritchie Edge — 0.229 · 94.7 · 12.1% 33.3% 31.0% F B O B 70

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Williamson — 0.253 · 92.4 · 11.5% 25.0% 31.9% F B O B 72

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Williamson — 0.174 · 91.4 · 10.8% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 59

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Ritchie — 0.214 · 88.4 · 10.4% 0.0% 29.8% F B O C 56

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Williamson Edge — 0.203 · 89.6 · 10.9% 0.0% 24.3% F B O C 55

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Ritchie — 0.202 · 90.4 · 10.7% 8.3% 15.7% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Williamson Edge — 0.140 · 91.2 · 10.5% 9.1% 8.5% F B O C 52

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Williamson — 0.195 · 90.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Ritchie Edge — 0.200 · 88.5 · 9.4% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 51

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Ritchie — 0.165 · 91.0 · 10.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Ritchie — 0.112 · 89.3 · 6.3% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 43

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Williamson Edge — 0.160 · 87.1 · 6.0% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 48

· CIN Héctor Rodríguez COOL vs Ritchie Edge — 0.161 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 46

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Ritchie — 0.150 · 88.1 · 9.3% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· ATL Sean Murphy vs Williamson Edge — 0.137 · 86.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Williamson Edge — 0.121 · 86.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· ATL Ha-Seong Kim COOL vs Williamson Edge — 0.008 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for JR Ritchie — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Williamson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Suarez Olson Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Williamson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 70

Matt Olson — · 72

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph out 82°F open

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

7:15p · peak

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

8:15p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

9:15p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

10:15p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 82°F, wind 2 mph N (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs JR Ritchie · RHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 70 B — HOT 3 0.229 94.7 12.1% 24.7%vs RHP 404 18.4% 33.3% 31.0% 28

2 Sal Stewart 60 C+ — WARM 22 0.202 90.4 10.7% 23.8%vs RHP 397 17.0% 8.3% 15.7% 33

3 Eugenio Suarez 56 C — · 35 0.214 88.4 10.4% 29.5%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 21

4 Tyler Stephenson 53 C — · 60 0.165 91.0 10.6% 20.0%vs RHP 392 9.6% 0.0% 12.3% 26

5 Jj Bleday 51 C — COOL 71 0.200 88.5 9.4% 20.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 25

6 Matt Mclain 46 D — COOL 108 0.150 88.1 9.3% 12.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 17

7 Héctor Rodríguez 46 D — COOL 110 0.161 87.7 7.2% 22.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 25

8 Dane Myers 43 D — · 139 0.112 89.3 6.3% 14.3%vs RHP 383 6.9% 11.1% 9.1% 22

vs Brandon Williamson · LHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B — · 2 0.253 92.4 11.5% 22.7%vs LHP 406 22.9% 25.0% 31.9% 40

2 Drake Baldwin 59 C — · 26 0.174 91.4 10.8% 25.9%vs LHP 401 15.4% 16.7% 16.0% 39

3 Ronald Acuna 55 C — COOL 43 0.203 89.6 10.9% 19.2%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 40

4 Michael Harris 52 C — COOL 65 0.195 90.3 9.6% 24.2%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 41

5 Austin Riley 52 C — COOL 69 0.140 91.2 10.5% 8.3%vs LHP 410 9.2% 9.1% 8.5% 23

6 Ozzie Albies 48 D — · 96 0.160 87.1 6.0% 13.1%vs LHP 388 12.9% 9.1% 10.5% 34

7 Sean Murphy 48 D — · 97 0.137 86.7 8.5% 16.7%vs LHP 390 15.8% 0.0% 9.4% 21

8 Mauricio Dubon 39 D — WARM 164 0.121 86.6 6.0% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 40

9 Ha-Seong Kim 35 D — COOL 205 0.008 85.6 4.7% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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