4
HRs allowed
7.4%
HR rate (pool)
15.6%
Overall HR/FB
6.23
FIP
6.21
xFIP
+0.02
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
75
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 75th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
82.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 107.5 EV · 410 ft
max EV allowed 111.1
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Williamson.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
26.5%
83.2
21.0°
1
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
23.6%
81.4
12.6°
0
-0.5
Fastball Hard
19.0%
82.0
31.7°
2
+4.4
Sinker Hard
11.3%
83.9
38.2°
1
+2.5
Sweeper Breaking
9.9%
79.7
29.4°
0
-4.3
Curveball Breaking
9.6%
75.6
-1.4°
0
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups54
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate7.4%
Pool HR/game day0.67
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB15.6% 75
HR/9—
FIP6.23 94
xFIP6.21
FIP − xFIP+0.02 50
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed82.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Cutter
Hard · 26.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle21.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches155
Changeup
Offspeed · 23.6% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle12.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches138
Fastball
Hard · 19.0% usage
+4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle31.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches111
Sinker
Hard · 11.3% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle38.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches66
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.9% usage
-4.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle29.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches58
Curveball
Breaking · 9.6% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.6 mph
Avg launch angle-1.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches56
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Williamson.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 107.5 EV · 410 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 6 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-29
9
1
108.9
2026-04-22
9
1
110.0
2026-04-17
9
0
110.3
2026-04-11
9
0
110.1
2026-04-06
9
0
106.3
2026-03-31
9
2
111.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Brandon Williamson isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.