TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ KC

Neutral air · 1.03×

CWS @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 28 · vs Kay ⟷ Miguel Vargas conv 26 · vs IV → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 24

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 6

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●○○

3 Chase Meidroth — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 21.7% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Kay — 0.221 · 91.2 · 9.8% 33.3% 21.7% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs IV Edge — 0.231 · 90.2 · 8.9% 25.0% 27.2% F B O C 59

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs IV — 0.261 · 93.5 · 10.5% 18.2% 27.1% F B O C+ 62

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Kay — 0.161 · 89.9 · 8.6% 25.0% 14.5% F B O C 50

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs IV Edge — 0.266 · 91.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Kay — 0.204 · 93.2 · 10.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs IV — 0.214 · 88.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Kay — 0.162 · 89.3 · 6.9% 18.2% 12.4% F B O D 46

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs IV Edge — 0.134 · 87.4 · 5.2% 15.4% 15.0% F B O D 39

· CWS Kyle Teel vs IV — 0.146 · 84.5 · 8.5% 11.1% 10.7% F B O D 44

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.161 · 92.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 47

· KC Maikel Garcia COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.113 · 89.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez vs Kay Edge — 0.146 · 89.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 47

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs IV Edge — 0.092 · 89.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.140 · 86.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 40

· KC Kyle Isbel COOL vs Kay — 0.103 · 88.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· CWS Braden Montgomery HOT vs IV Edge — 0.129 · 88.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Anthony Kay — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Meidroth Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Carter Jensen — · 61

Miguel Vargas — · 59

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 5 mph in 71°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

6:40p · peak

-3

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5 mph · in

70°F

7:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

8:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

9:40p

-3

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5 mph · in

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 71°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 62 C+ — COOL 14 0.261 93.5 10.5% 31.8%vs LHP 402 18.2% 18.2% 27.1% 16

2 Miguel Vargas 59 C — COOL 24 0.231 90.2 8.9% 26.7%vs LHP 393 20.4% 25.0% 27.2% 35

3 Randal Grichuk 52 C — COOL 66 0.266 91.4 7.9% 22.5%vs LHP 387 12.2% 0.0% 16.4% 30

4 Colson Montgomery 52 C — COOL 68 0.214 88.7 8.6% 29.4%vs LHP 397 20.8% 0.0% 13.7% 17

5 Kyle Teel 44 D — WARM 135 0.146 84.5 8.5% 20.0% 399 14.3% 11.1% 10.7% 16

6 Chase Meidroth 39 D — WARM 165 0.134 87.4 5.2% 22.2%vs LHP 381 8.1% 15.4% 15.0% 35

7 Braden Montgomery 36 D — HOT 195 0.129 88.9 5.3% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% 25

8 Brenton Doyle 35 D — WARM 201 0.092 89.1 6.1% 15.4%vs LHP 405 4.8% 0.0% 8.0% 16

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 61 C+ — WARM 18 0.221 91.2 9.8% 14.8%vs LHP 398 17.7% 33.3% 21.7% 23

2 Jac Caglianone 55 C — WARM 47 0.204 93.2 10.4% 26.9%vs LHP 416 13.8% 0.0% 13.7% 8

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 50 C — HOT 83 0.161 89.9 8.6% 8.7%vs LHP 394 12.6% 25.0% 14.5% 27

4 Bobby Witt 47 D — COOL 104 0.161 92.1 9.5% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 33

5 Salvador Perez 47 D — WARM 107 0.146 89.1 9.0% 8.7%vs LHP 405 14.3% 0.0% 9.1% 30

6 Michael Massey 46 D — COOL 111 0.162 89.3 6.9% 23.1%vs LHP 393 8.4% 18.2% 12.4% 34

7 Nick Loftin 40 D — COOL 160 0.140 86.7 5.7% 3.2%vs LHP 397 8.2% 0.0% 7.9% 26

8 Maikel Garcia 38 D — COOL 179 0.113 89.8 5.9% 16.7%vs LHP 398 4.9% 0.0% 9.2% 13

9 Kyle Isbel 36 D — COOL 194 0.103 88.3 4.7% 11.1%vs LHP 388 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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