TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ NYY

Suppressed air · 0.99×

TB @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:05p · 34 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:05p

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2:05p

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3:05p

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4:05p

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5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -9 FIT

Best of game Ben Rice conv 31 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 28 · vs Rodón → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 73

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●●○○

FADE Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 14

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●●○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 9

0.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●●○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●●○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 38

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Heliot Ramos — C ●●●●○

3 Cody Bellinger — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 31.5% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.266 · 91.9 · 9.2% 27.3% 33.8% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Martinez Edge — 0.266 · 91.9 · 9.7% 27.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 68

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.250 · 92.7 · 9.5% 25.0% 30.4% F B O C+ 65

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.250 · 92.7 · 6.3% 25.0% 29.6% F B O C 59

· NYY Heliot Ramos COOL vs Martinez — 0.168 · 92.1 · 9.7% 33.3% 20.5% F B O C 53

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Martinez Edge — 0.164 · 89.2 · 6.6% 33.3% 17.3% F B O C 50

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Rodón — 0.163 · 91.0 · 8.3% 22.2% 21.4% F B O C 52

· NYY Spencer Jones vs Martinez Edge — 0.193 · 94.3 · 10.4% 20.0% 20.5% F B O C 57

· TB Victor Mesa vs Rodón — 0.251 · 89.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 35.1% F B O C 54

· NYY Luis García vs Martinez Edge — 0.251 · 91.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 24 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.164 · 89.2 · 6.2% 33.3% 18.6% F B O D 47

· TB Richie Palacios vs Rodón — 0.143 · 86.5 · 5.3% 25.0% 19.2% F B O D 44

· NYY Austin Wells vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.139 · 89.5 · 6.7% 27.3% 16.5% F B O D 44

· TB Richie Palacios vs Fried — 0.143 · 86.5 · 3.5% 25.0% 11.7% F B O D 38

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Fried — 0.163 · 91.0 · 5.4% 22.2% 13.1% F B O D 44

· TB Nick Fortes vs Fried Edge — 0.112 · 85.3 · 2.5% 20.0% 11.2% F B O D 33

· TB Liam Hicks COOL vs Rodón — 0.152 · 84.4 · 5.2% 14.3% 11.0% F B O D 43

· NYY Anthony Volpe vs Martinez — 0.092 · 88.0 · 5.5% 14.3% 7.7% F B O D 38

· NYY George Lombard vs Martinez — 0.151 · 86.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 18.4% F B O D 42

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.171 · 90.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 44

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.202 · 86.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Martinez — 0.137 · 84.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 38

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Rasmussen — 0.137 · 84.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 34

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Rodón Edge — 0.157 · 91.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Fried Edge — 0.157 · 91.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.135 · 90.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· NYY Ali Sanchez HOT vs Martinez — 0.066 · 83.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Rodón — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 21

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.151 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.151 · 85.6 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.073 · 85.5 · 2.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 26

· TB Jorge Mateo COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.114 · 87.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Fried — 0.137 · 87.8 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 35

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Fried — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Carlos Rodón — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mesa Aranda Palacios Caminero Aranda Palacios Fortes Rice Jones Ramos Bellinger Rice Bellinger Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 9

Ben Rice — · 65

Ben Rice — · 68

Junior Caminero — · 65

Junior Caminero — · 59

Heliot Ramos — · 53

Jonathan Aranda — · 52

Spencer Jones — · 57

Cody Bellinger — · 47

Richie Palacios — · 44

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph in 65°F open

-9

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12 mph · in

65°F

1:05p · peak

-9

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12 mph · in

65°F

2:05p

-9

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12 mph · in

65°F

3:05p

-9

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12 mph · in

65°F

4:05p

-9

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12 mph · in

65°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 65°F, wind 9 mph NE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 65 C+ — COOL 8 0.250 92.7 9.5% 32.0%vs LHP 413 25.0% 25.0% 30.4% 36

2 Victor Mesa 54 C — WARM 48 0.251 89.2 9.1% 16.7%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 35.1% 27

3 Jonathan Aranda 52 C — COOL 63 0.163 91.0 8.3% 10.3%vs LHP 390 13.4% 22.2% 21.4% 25

4 Richie Palacios 44 D — WARM 127 0.143 86.5 5.3% 11.8% 385 9.0% 25.0% 19.2% 21

5 Liam Hicks 43 D — COOL 138 0.152 84.4 5.2% 5.9%vs LHP 382 13.4% 14.3% 11.0% 21

6 Yandy Diaz 42 D — · 140 0.157 91.0 7.1% 20.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 37

7 Jorge Mateo 40 D — COOL 161 0.114 87.5 7.3% 9.5%vs LHP 400 7.3% 0.0% 7.4% 13

8 Jonny Deluca 38 D — COOL 174 0.151 85.6 4.7% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 22

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 250 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 46

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.88 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 59 C — COOL 23 0.250 92.7 6.3% 32.0%vs LHP 413 25.0% 25.0% 29.6% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 44 D — COOL 131 0.163 91.0 5.4% 10.3%vs LHP 390 13.4% 22.2% 13.1% 25

3 Richie Palacios 38 D — WARM 175 0.143 86.5 3.5% 11.8% 385 9.0% 25.0% 11.7% 21

4 Yandy Diaz 36 D — · 189 0.157 91.0 4.7% 20.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 37

5 Cedric Mullins 35 D — COOL 204 0.137 87.8 3.5% 3.7%vs LHP 387 11.0% 0.0% 5.8% 13

6 Jonny Deluca 34 D — COOL 209 0.151 85.6 3.1% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 22

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — WARM 218 0.112 85.3 2.5% 4.8%vs LHP 390 5.1% 20.0% 11.2% 10

8 Taylor Walls 26 D — COOL 247 0.073 85.5 2.3% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 8.0% 6

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 253 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 46

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 68 C+ — · 5 0.266 91.9 9.7% 30.1%vs RHP 393 24.0% 27.3% 31.5% 32

2 Spencer Jones 57 C — · 32 0.193 94.3 10.4% 17.0%vs RHP 403 13.8% 20.0% 20.5% 25

3 Luis García 55 C — WARM 45 0.251 91.5 9.2% 32.9%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 31

4 Heliot Ramos 53 C — COOL 55 0.168 92.1 9.7% 20.0%vs RHP 403 10.2% 33.3% 20.5% 17

5 Cody Bellinger 50 C — WARM 81 0.164 89.2 6.6% 13.4%vs RHP 377 11.3% 33.3% 17.3% 43

6 George Lombard 42 D — · 141 0.151 86.4 6.9% 22.2%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 37

7 Jose Caballero 38 D — WARM 172 0.137 84.0 5.4% 22.7%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 17

8 Anthony Volpe 38 D — WARM 181 0.092 88.0 5.5% 5.6%vs RHP 381 3.3% 14.3% 7.7% 31

9 Ali Sanchez 36 D — HOT 191 0.066 83.1 5.0% 0.0%vs RHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 6

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 65 C+ — · 7 0.266 91.9 9.2% 30.1%vs RHP 393 24.0% 27.3% 33.8% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — COOL 94 0.202 86.7 7.8% 17.1%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 12.8% 10

3 Cody Bellinger 47 D — WARM 101 0.164 89.2 6.2% 13.4%vs RHP 377 11.3% 33.3% 18.6% 43

4 Austin Wells 44 D — WARM 129 0.139 89.5 6.7% 17.0%vs RHP 381 9.7% 27.3% 16.5% 22

5 Jazz Chisholm 44 D — COOL 130 0.171 90.5 7.0% 22.2%vs RHP 384 14.3% 0.0% 16.1% 4

6 Ryan Mcmahon 41 D — COOL 149 0.135 90.5 7.2% 17.2%vs RHP 387 9.1% 0.0% 9.6% 22

7 Jose Caballero 34 D — WARM 208 0.137 84.0 5.1% 22.7%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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