TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.02×

HOU @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 3 mph in 66°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 25 · vs Javier ⟷ Isaac Paredes conv 27 · vs Gilbert → edge: Randy Arozarena

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 88

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 84

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Isaac Paredes — D ●●●●○

2 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randy Arozarena: Match 25.5% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena ✶ vs Javier — 0.201 · 90.9 · 8.2% 25.0% 25.5% F B O C 56

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Gilbert — 0.180 · 88.6 · 10.4% 27.3% 22.7% F B O C 54

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Gilbert — 0.196 · 88.5 · 8.3% 16.7% 26.8% F B O C 52

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Javier Edge — 0.194 · 89.9 · 11.3% 16.7% 15.2% F B O C 56

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.284 · 94.2 · 12.5% 0.0% 26.7% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Christian Walker vs Gilbert — 0.186 · 88.8 · 9.5% 9.1% 14.0% F B O C 51

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Javier Edge — 0.223 · 91.2 · 10.2% 8.3% 13.6% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Gilbert — 0.174 · 86.1 · 6.9% 33.3% 21.0% F B O D 48

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Gilbert — 0.167 · 89.0 · 8.0% 20.0% 16.1% F B O D 47

· HOU Taylor Trammell HOT vs Gilbert Edge — 0.158 · 88.5 · 11.2% 14.3% 17.4% F B O D 49

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Javier — 0.153 · 90.3 · 8.6% 8.3% 11.1% F B O D 48

· SEA Cole Young HOT vs Javier Edge — 0.139 · 88.3 · 6.5% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Gilbert — 0.118 · 85.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 33

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.130 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Gilbert — 0.153 · 85.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 37

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Javier Edge — 0.091 · 87.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Gilbert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cristian Javier — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Smith Peña Trammell Paredes Diaz Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Randy Arozarena — · 56

Cam Smith — · 54

Isaac Paredes — · 48

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 3 mph in 66°F retractable

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 66°F, wind 3 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 61 C+ — COOL 16 0.284 94.2 12.5% 25.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 28

2 Cam Smith 54 C — COOL 50 0.180 88.6 10.4% 21.3%vs RHP 410 13.3% 27.3% 22.7% 25

3 Jeremy Peña 52 C — WARM 62 0.196 88.5 8.3% 29.0%vs RHP 389 15.8% 16.7% 26.8% 31

4 Christian Walker 51 C — WARM 76 0.186 88.8 9.5% 22.2%vs RHP 393 16.0% 9.1% 14.0% 29

5 Taylor Trammell 49 D — HOT 87 0.158 88.5 11.2% 19.5%vs RHP 406 12.0% 14.3% 17.4% 13

6 Isaac Paredes 48 D — · 91 0.174 86.1 6.9% 17.8%vs RHP 376 13.4% 33.3% 21.0% 34

7 Yainer Diaz 47 D — WARM 102 0.167 89.0 8.0% 32.4%vs RHP 389 12.0% 20.0% 16.1% 35

8 Jose Altuve 37 D — COOL 184 0.153 85.6 6.5% 17.6%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 42

9 Christian Vazquez 33 D — COOL 216 0.118 85.9 4.5% 17.1%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 4

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Randy Arozarena ✶ 56 C — WARM 36 0.201 90.9 8.2% 23.1%vs RHP 389 16.0% 25.0% 25.5% 38

2 Cal Raleigh 56 C — · 40 0.194 89.9 11.3% 15.9%vs RHP 386 16.4% 16.7% 15.2% 29

3 Dominic Canzone 56 C — · 41 0.223 91.2 10.2% 22.7%vs RHP 403 14.6% 8.3% 13.6% 38

4 Julio Rodríguez 48 D — WARM 95 0.153 90.3 8.6% 19.7%vs RHP 404 14.3% 8.3% 11.1% 38

5 Cole Young 42 D — HOT 143 0.139 88.3 6.5% 17.5%vs RHP 384 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 34

6 J.P. Crawford 38 D — COOL 171 0.130 87.7 7.3% 21.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 43

7 Josh Naylor 35 D — WARM 203 0.091 87.1 6.3% 10.0%vs RHP 392 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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