TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.96×

WSH @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph slight_out 59°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Keibert Ruiz conv 13 · vs Anderson ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 24 · vs Kent → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 77

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

2 Daylen Lile — D ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

FADE Jackson Kent LHP · WSH

leak 10

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Riley Greene — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 18.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Kent Edge — 0.195 · 89.5 · 9.3% 33.3% 15.6% F B O C 52

· DET Riley Greene vs Kent — 0.198 · 90.1 · 10.4% 15.4% 14.3% F B O C 52

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Kent Edge — 0.207 · 88.6 · 8.5% 12.5% 10.6% F B O C 50

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.247 · 95.3 · 12.4% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C+ 61

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Anderson Edge — 0.230 · 89.6 · 8.9% 0.0% 16.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Kent Edge — 0.164 · 89.7 · 8.1% 20.0% 12.3% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Anderson Edge — 0.169 · 88.0 · 6.2% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 41

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Anderson Edge — 0.188 · 88.6 · 8.7% 11.1% 15.7% F B O D 48

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Anderson — 0.149 · 90.0 · 8.7% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Anderson — 0.140 · 87.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Kent — 0.149 · 88.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 39

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Anderson Edge — 0.086 · 82.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Kent Edge — 0.106 · 86.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 34

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 20

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Kent — 0.095 · 85.7 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Kent — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Lile Ruiz Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph slight_out 59°F open

-2

↑

9 mph · slight_out

60°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

9 mph · slight_out

59°F

7:40p

-2

↑

9 mph · slight_out

58°F

8:40p

-2

↑

9 mph · slight_out

57°F

9:40p

-2

↑

10 mph · slight_out

57°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 59°F, wind 9 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 22 0.247 95.3 12.4% 35.0%vs RHP 413 22.5% 0.0% 18.5% 23

2 Cj Abrams 53 C — · 62 0.230 89.6 8.9% 27.1%vs RHP 396 30.8% 0.0% 16.1% 30

3 Daylen Lile 48 D — WARM 101 0.188 88.6 8.7% 14.0%vs RHP 401 11.6% 11.1% 15.7% 29

4 Dylan Crews 44 D — COOL 130 0.149 90.0 8.7% 12.5%vs RHP 405 13.6% 10.0% 9.8% 32

5 Keibert Ruiz 41 D — WARM 147 0.169 88.0 6.2% 10.6%vs RHP 380 10.5% 16.7% 10.3% 19

6 Jacob Young 37 D — COOL 179 0.140 87.8 6.7% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.2% 0.0% 9.2% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 29 D — WARM 221 0.086 82.9 5.0% 6.0%vs RHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 6.9% 17

8 Nasim Nunez 20 D — COOL 233 0.033 85.0 2.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 12

vs Jackson Kent · LHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 52 C — WARM 73 0.195 89.5 9.3% 8.1%vs LHP 391 15.9% 33.3% 15.6% 20

2 Riley Greene 52 C — · 74 0.198 90.1 10.4% 20.0%vs LHP 400 13.2% 15.4% 14.3% 34

3 Dillon Dingler 50 C — · 88 0.207 88.6 8.5% 12.9%vs LHP 398 17.1% 12.5% 10.6% 22

4 Hao-Yu Lee 46 D — · 113 0.164 89.7 8.1% 14.3%vs LHP 396 16.7% 20.0% 12.3% 28

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D — · 159 0.149 88.0 7.1% 6.2%vs LHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 7.4% 42

6 Gleyber Torres 34 D — · 197 0.106 86.3 6.6% 9.5%vs LHP 393 7.8% 0.0% 6.4% 25

7 Zach Mckinstry 28 D — COOL 223 0.095 85.7 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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