TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.10×

MIL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph cross 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -3

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 34 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 24 · vs May → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●●

2 William Contreras — C ●●●●●

3 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●●○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 51

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 30.6% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Wheeler Edge — 0.228 · 92.2 · 9.5% 33.3% 33.8% F B O C+ 63

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Wheeler — 0.152 · 90.4 · 7.4% 44.4% 18.5% F B O C 50

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Wheeler — 0.195 · 91.7 · 8.8% 27.3% 24.8% F B O C 57

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs May Edge — 0.277 · 92.3 · 10.9% 16.7% 30.6% F B O C+ 68

· MIL Brice Turang vs Wheeler Edge — 0.172 · 90.2 · 6.9% 20.0% 23.4% F B O C 50

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Wheeler Edge — 0.159 · 93.4 · 8.7% 20.0% 23.1% F B O C 51

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs May Edge — 0.220 · 90.1 · 8.8% 8.3% 18.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Trea Turner COOL vs May — 0.141 · 88.3 · 6.8% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 45

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.140 · 89.1 · 7.6% 14.3% 11.2% F B O D 44

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Wheeler — 0.136 · 89.0 · 5.1% 10.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· — Justin Crawford vs May Edge — 0.093 · 87.1 · 3.7% 11.1% 7.2% F B O D 33

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs May Edge — 0.145 · 89.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· — J.T. Realmuto vs May — 0.129 · 89.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.088 · 85.9 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 32

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.089 · 86.8 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· — Alec Bohm vs May — 0.137 · 90.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 42

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs May Edge — 0.139 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Zack Wheeler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dustin May — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Turang Contreras Schwarber Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Jake Bauers — · 63

William Contreras — · 50

Jackson Chourio — · 57

Brice Turang — · 50

Garrett Mitchell — · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 9 mph cross 62°F open

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

62°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

61°F

7:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

60°F

8:40p

-4

↑

9 mph · in

60°F

9:40p

-6

↑

10 mph · in

59°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 63 C+ — WARM 12 0.228 92.2 9.5% 28.1%vs RHP 401 19.8% 33.3% 33.8% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 57 C — · 33 0.195 91.7 8.8% 19.1%vs RHP 401 17.4% 27.3% 24.8% 36

3 Garrett Mitchell 51 C — · 77 0.159 93.4 8.7% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.1% 20.0% 23.1% 22

4 Brice Turang 50 C — WARM 82 0.172 90.2 6.9% 23.9%vs RHP 406 10.9% 20.0% 23.4% 25

5 William Contreras 50 C — HOT 83 0.152 90.4 7.4% 15.5%vs RHP 407 12.2% 44.4% 18.5% 31

6 Christian Yelich 44 D — COOL 127 0.140 89.1 7.6% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.6% 14.3% 11.2% 21

7 Joey Ortiz 40 D — · 150 0.136 89.0 5.1% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.6% 10.0% 10.2% 28

8 David Hamilton 33 D — COOL 200 0.089 86.8 4.4% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.1% 0.0% 8.5% 9

9 Sal Frelick 32 D — COOL 206 0.088 85.9 3.9% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.3% 0.0% 8.6% 21

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 6 0.277 92.3 10.9% 41.1%vs RHP 402 23.3% 16.7% 30.6% 28

2 Bryce Harper 56 C — COOL 39 0.220 90.1 8.8% 35.3%vs RHP 403 17.2% 8.3% 18.1% 35

3 Trea Turner 45 D — COOL 118 0.141 88.3 6.8% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.2% 16.7% 10.6% 36

4 Brandon Marsh 44 D — COOL 129 0.145 89.2 7.7% 16.7%vs RHP 391 10.3% 0.0% 9.8% 20

5 Alec Bohm 42 D — WARM 137 0.137 90.5 6.8% 12.3%vs RHP 394 9.8% 0.0% 8.4% 37

6 Bryson Stott 41 D — COOL 145 0.139 89.2 6.7% 8.9%vs RHP 393 6.9% 0.0% 8.4% 34

7 J.T. Realmuto 38 D — WARM 165 0.129 89.6 6.5% 17.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 26

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — WARM 204 0.093 87.1 3.7% 4.0%vs RHP 395 2.7% 11.1% 7.2% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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