TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.56×

STL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 11 mph in 58°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks -11

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 11 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 33 · vs Pallante → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 77

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker — D ●○○○○

3 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 71

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●●○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 25.9% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Pallante Edge — 0.230 · 91.0 · 7.9% 40.0% 25.9% F B O C 55

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.210 · 94.1 · 9.0% 25.0% 27.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.178 · 89.1 · 5.9% 14.3% 11.5% F B O D 40

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.184 · 91.8 · 9.1% 10.0% 12.2% F B O D 46

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Pallante Edge — 0.090 · 85.8 · 3.5% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 26

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Pallante Edge — 0.162 · 90.9 · 7.7% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 41

· STL Jordan Walker vs Jones — 0.200 · 92.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 48

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Jones — 0.141 · 89.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 33

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.126 · 89.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· STL Nolan Gorman COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.128 · 89.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.120 · 85.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· PIT Konnor Griffin vs Pallante — 0.122 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.119 · 86.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Jones — 0.085 · 88.2 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Jones — 0.111 · 86.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Pallante — 0.087 · 86.4 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Pallante — 0.066 · 86.3 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andre Pallante — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 55

Oneil Cruz — · 54

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 11 mph in 58°F open

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11 mph · in

58°F

6:40p

-12

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11 mph · in

57°F

7:40p

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10 mph · in

56°F

8:40p · peak

-12

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10 mph · in

56°F

9:40p

-12

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10 mph · in

56°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.56× 58°F, wind 11 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 48 D — WARM 97 0.200 92.7 10.0% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.3% 0.0% 13.4% 21

2 Alec Burleson 46 D — COOL 108 0.184 91.8 9.1% 23.0%vs RHP 405 14.2% 10.0% 12.2% 24

3 Nolan Gorman 37 D — COOL 176 0.128 89.4 8.8% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.2% 0.0% 7.8% 12

4 Jj Wetherholt 35 D — COOL 188 0.126 89.8 7.5% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.9% 9

5 Ivan Herrera 33 D — · 198 0.141 89.4 6.5% 19.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 30

6 Nathan Church 32 D — COOL 208 0.120 85.7 6.5% 12.7%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 7.6% 34

7 José Fermín 28 D — COOL 222 0.111 86.1 4.1% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.2% 0.0% 6.7% 20

8 Masyn Winn 27 D — COOL 225 0.085 88.2 5.1% 7.5%vs RHP 385 3.9% 0.0% 6.9% 23

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 55 C — WARM 47 0.230 91.0 7.9% 26.9%vs RHP 391 18.8% 40.0% 25.9% 28

2 Oneil Cruz 54 C — COOL 50 0.210 94.1 9.0% 41.7%vs RHP 414 22.6% 25.0% 27.0% 34

3 Bryan Reynolds 41 D — · 142 0.162 90.9 7.7% 14.1%vs RHP 407 10.5% 8.3% 9.3% 37

4 Ryan O'Hearn 40 D — COOL 148 0.178 89.1 5.9% 22.9%vs RHP 385 13.5% 14.3% 11.5% 20

5 Konnor Griffin 32 D — WARM 209 0.122 87.8 5.8% 17.4%vs RHP 401 5.0% 0.0% 7.3% 45

6 Spencer Horwitz 32 D — COOL 210 0.119 86.7 5.5% 12.3%vs RHP 395 8.2% 0.0% 7.3% 20

7 Jake Mangum 26 D — HOT 227 0.090 85.8 3.5% 8.1%vs RHP 394 4.8% 11.1% 6.9% 30

8 Nick Gonzales 26 D — WARM 228 0.087 86.4 3.9% 8.6%vs RHP 397 5.6% 0.0% 6.5% 26

9 Jared Triolo 24 D — COOL 230 0.066 86.3 3.5% 7.4%vs RHP 409 2.4% 0.0% 6.3% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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