TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.23×

LAA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 6 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+7 ↑

9:40p

+7 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 24 · vs Kikuchi ⟷ Zach Neto conv 25 · vs Basso → edge: Zack Gelof

ATTACK Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 86

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte — C ●●●○○

3 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 45

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.71 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto — C ●●●●○

2 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zack Gelof: Match 22.6% · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto vs Basso Edge — 0.196 · 89.8 · 8.3% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C 58

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Kikuchi — 0.155 · 89.6 · 8.6% 27.3% 21.1% F B O C 54

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.123 · 90.9 · 8.4% 18.2% 25.1% F B O C 51

· ATH Zack Gelof ✶ HOT vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.204 · 89.7 · 9.6% 18.2% 22.6% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.219 · 91.5 · 11.2% 0.0% 21.5% F B O C+ 63

· LAA Mike Trout vs Basso Edge — 0.177 · 89.9 · 9.8% 8.3% 13.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.146 · 87.5 · 6.5% 16.7% 11.6% F B O D 46

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Basso — 0.155 · 88.7 · 7.6% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 47

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.166 · 87.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 49

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Basso Edge — 0.110 · 87.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.136 · 88.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.101 · 86.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Basso — 0.083 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brady Basso — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yusei Kikuchi — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Gelof Butler Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Kikuchi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Zach Neto — · 58

Lawrence Butler — · 54

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 6 mph out 75°F open

↑

1 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p · peak

↑

1 mph · cross

74°F

7:40p

↑

1 mph · cross

74°F

8:40p

↑

1 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

↑

1 mph · cross

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 75°F, wind 6 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Basso · LHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.71 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 58 C — WARM 28 0.196 89.8 8.3% 19.1%vs LHP 404 16.2% 25.0% 25.4% 27

2 Mike Trout 53 C — · 59 0.177 89.9 9.8% 15.6%vs LHP 409 12.7% 8.3% 13.0% 24

3 Josh Lowe 47 D — WARM 106 0.155 88.7 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 393 10.1% 11.1% 9.9% 14

4 Vaughn Grissom 46 D — COOL 114 0.146 87.5 6.5% 7.1%vs LHP 389 10.1% 16.7% 11.6% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 39 D — WARM 166 0.110 87.6 6.1% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.6% 0.0% 10.5% 12

6 Wade Meckler 34 D — COOL 211 0.083 87.0 4.1% 6.4% 396 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% 29

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 63 C+ — COOL 13 0.219 91.5 11.2% 32.1%vs LHP 417 19.2% 0.0% 21.5% 18

2 Zack Gelof ✶ 61 C+ — HOT 17 0.204 89.7 9.6% 18.5%vs LHP 397 20.3% 18.2% 22.6% 31

3 Lawrence Butler 54 C — WARM 52 0.155 89.6 8.6% 25.0%vs LHP 408 10.3% 27.3% 21.1% 30

4 Henry Bolte 51 C — WARM 72 0.123 90.9 8.4% 50.0%vs LHP 398 12.0% 18.2% 25.1% 23

5 Jonah Heim 49 D — COOL 88 0.166 87.5 7.4% 31.2%vs LHP 409 8.2% 0.0% 16.1% 20

6 Carlos Cortes 45 D — COOL 124 0.136 88.2 7.3% 11.2% 400 4.7% 0.0% 9.2% 23

7 Jeff Mcneil 37 D — COOL 188 0.101 86.5 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 380 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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