TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ LAD

Playable air · 1.07×

SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 2 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

+6 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Kyle Tucker conv 31 · vs King ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 23 · vs Proxy → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 64

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

FADE LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 51

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill — C+ ●●●●○

2 Manny Machado — C ●●○○○

3 Ty France — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 26.9% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Kyle Tucker HOT vs King Edge — 0.159 · 88.9 · 7.5% 45.5% 16.7% F B O C 51

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs King Edge — 0.244 · 90.0 · 10.4% 30.8% 26.9% F B O C+ 65

· LAD Mookie Betts vs King — 0.195 · 90.4 · 8.1% 27.3% 22.3% F B O C 55

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Proxy — 0.189 · 91.6 · 12.5% 25.0% 21.3% F B O C+ 60

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Proxy — 0.187 · 90.2 · 9.6% 16.7% 13.6% F B O C 54

· SD Ty France vs Proxy — 0.216 · 92.0 · 9.5% 10.0% 15.2% F B O C 55

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Proxy — 0.183 · 92.9 · 12.9% 0.0% 21.7% F B O C 53

· LAD Andy Pages vs King — 0.186 · 88.8 · 8.0% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Alex Freeland vs King Edge — 0.090 · 89.6 · 7.2% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 39

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Proxy — 0.097 · 87.1 · 3.7% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 33

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Proxy — 0.110 · 89.4 · 5.7% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 38

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs King Edge — 0.131 · 87.2 · 6.5% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 42

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs King — 0.157 · 90.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs King Edge — 0.146 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Proxy — 0.110 · 87.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael King — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Machado Muncy Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy — · 65

Mookie Betts — · 55

Jackson Merrill — · 60

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 2 mph out 76°F open

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

7:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 76°F, wind 2 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill 60 C+ — WARM 34 0.189 91.6 12.5% 16.2% 411 16.2% 25.0% 21.3% 39

2 Ty France 55 C — · 70 0.216 92.0 9.5% 20.2% 390 15.3% 10.0% 15.2% 34

3 Manny Machado 54 C — COOL 77 0.187 90.2 9.6% 17.8% 397 17.4% 16.7% 13.6% 38

4 Fernando Tatis 53 C — · 86 0.183 92.9 12.9% 20.2% 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 38

5 Xander Bogaerts 38 D — WARM 206 0.110 89.4 5.7% 10.7% 404 7.6% 9.1% 8.1% 32

6 Freddy Fermin 34 D — COOL 231 0.110 87.5 3.9% 6.2% 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.5% 10

7 Jake Cronenworth 33 D — WARM 238 0.097 87.1 3.7% 8.5% 377 3.8% 9.1% 8.8% 36

vs Michael King · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 65 C+ — · 9 0.244 90.0 10.4% 25.9%vs RHP 410 22.0% 30.8% 26.9% 41

2 Mookie Betts 55 C — WARM 46 0.195 90.4 8.1% 17.1%vs RHP 389 13.4% 27.3% 22.3% 39

3 Kyle Tucker 51 C — HOT 74 0.159 88.9 7.5% 11.5%vs RHP 392 10.3% 45.5% 16.7% 34

4 Andy Pages 50 C — · 82 0.186 88.8 8.0% 19.4%vs RHP 390 14.3% 0.0% 15.3% 0

5 Teoscar Hernandez 45 D — · 119 0.157 90.3 9.3% 14.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 29

6 Freddie Freeman 45 D — · 123 0.146 89.4 8.2% 13.6%vs RHP 399 9.3% 0.0% 9.4% 28

7 Tommy Edman 42 D — COOL 144 0.131 87.2 6.5% 8.7%vs RHP 397 9.3% 9.1% 7.8% 31

8 Alex Freeland 39 D — · 168 0.090 89.6 7.2% 11.8%vs RHP 366 3.7% 16.7% 8.7% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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