TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ CHC

Neutral air · 1.01×

MIA @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 9 mph in 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -5 FIT

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 15 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Dansby Swanson conv 34 · vs Junk → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 95

1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández — C ●○○○○

FADE Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 58

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dansby Swanson — C ●●●●●

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

3 Michael Busch — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.3% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Junk — 0.192 · 89.6 · 7.3% 50.0% 18.2% F B O C 54

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Junk Edge — 0.298 · 90.7 · 9.8% 27.3% 33.3% F B O B 72

· CHC Michael Busch vs Junk Edge — 0.157 · 88.4 · 8.1% 18.2% 17.3% F B O C 52

· CHC Michael Conforto vs Junk Edge — 0.235 · 90.4 · 9.1% 12.5% 17.2% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ vs Junk Edge — 0.196 · 89.5 · 9.0% 10.0% 15.7% F B O C 56

· CHC Seiya Suzuki HOT vs Junk — 0.203 · 88.7 · 8.7% 10.0% 15.4% F B O C 56

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.212 · 91.1 · 11.0% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 55

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Imanaga — 0.208 · 92.4 · 10.9% 0.0% 16.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Imanaga Edge — 0.162 · 87.1 · 5.1% 18.2% 11.7% F B O D 46

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Imanaga — 0.127 · 87.3 · 5.9% 18.2% 11.5% F B O D 45

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Imanaga Edge — 0.136 · 89.2 · 7.7% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 46

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 38

· CHC Pedro Ramirez COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.153 · 89.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Junk — 0.122 · 86.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Junk — 0.091 · 86.0 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shota Imanaga — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sanoja Marsee Crow-Armstrong Conforto Swanson Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dansby Swanson — · 54

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 72

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 9 mph in 62°F open

-5

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8 mph · in

64°F

6:40p · peak

-5

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8 mph · in

64°F

7:40p

-5

↑

8 mph · in

64°F

8:40p

-5

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8 mph · in

64°F

9:40p

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8 mph · in

64°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 62°F, wind 9 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 59 C — · 25 0.208 92.4 10.9% 13.3%vs LHP 400 13.6% 0.0% 16.1% 30

2 Heriberto Hernández 55 C — COOL 42 0.212 91.1 11.0% 31.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 34

3 Javier Sanoja 46 D — WARM 113 0.162 87.1 5.1% 13.6%vs LHP 385 9.0% 18.2% 11.7% 41

4 Otto Lopez 46 D — WARM 117 0.136 89.2 7.7% 8.8%vs LHP 398 6.6% 9.1% 9.2% 35

5 Jakob Marsee 45 D — COOL 126 0.127 87.3 5.9% 8.3%vs LHP 386 8.8% 18.2% 11.5% 33

6 Xavier Edwards 38 D — COOL 176 0.091 86.8 5.5% 18.2%vs LHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 10.1% 12

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 72 B — WARM 1 0.298 90.7 9.8% 30.1%vs RHP 397 23.7% 27.3% 33.3% 36

2 Michael Conforto 57 C — · 33 0.235 90.4 9.1% 21.0%vs RHP 397 11.3% 12.5% 17.2% 23

3 Ian Happ 56 C — WARM 38 0.196 89.5 9.0% 23.8%vs RHP 401 17.0% 10.0% 15.7% 19

4 Seiya Suzuki 56 C — HOT 39 0.203 88.7 8.7% 18.7%vs RHP 408 15.9% 10.0% 15.4% 30

5 Dansby Swanson 54 C — WARM 53 0.192 89.6 7.3% 18.8%vs RHP 404 12.8% 50.0% 18.2% 6

6 Michael Busch 52 C — WARM 64 0.157 88.4 8.1% 12.5%vs RHP 404 13.5% 18.2% 17.3% 24

7 Pedro Ramirez 41 D — COOL 146 0.153 89.1 5.6% 10.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 28

8 Carson Kelly 41 D — COOL 153 0.122 86.8 6.1% 9.1%vs RHP 403 8.1% 0.0% 8.7% 24

9 Nico Hoerner 33 D — WARM 219 0.091 86.0 3.1% 6.1%vs RHP 383 5.2% 0.0% 8.2% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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