TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.22×

NYM @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph in 86°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:05p

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the 7:05p window peaks -4

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Manaea ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 23 · vs Gore → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 95

1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Corey Seager — C+ ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger — C ●●●○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 10

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 32.9% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Manaea — 0.250 · 92.1 · 10.9% 25.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 64

· TEX Corey Seager vs Manaea — 0.194 · 91.7 · 12.2% 25.0% 22.8% F B O C+ 60

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Gore Edge — 0.202 · 91.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 21.9% F B O C 54

· NYM Juan Soto vs Gore — 0.247 · 92.7 · 10.7% 25.0% 20.6% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Jake Burger vs Manaea Edge — 0.195 · 90.2 · 11.5% 16.7% 25.3% F B O C 58

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Manaea Edge — 0.193 · 88.9 · 9.1% 16.7% 20.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Josh Jung vs Manaea Edge — 0.155 · 90.6 · 8.7% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 49

· NYM Carson Benge vs Gore — 0.144 · 88.7 · 7.9% 25.0% 13.9% F B O D 45

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.129 · 89.6 · 7.3% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 40

· NYM Brett Baty vs Gore — 0.130 · 90.4 · 9.2% 11.1% 5.7% F B O D 42

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.167 · 90.4 · 11.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 45

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.166 · 88.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Manaea — 0.147 · 92.1 · 9.9% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 47

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Gore — 0.122 · 89.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.122 · 86.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 38

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Manaea — 0.121 · 87.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 39

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Manaea — 0.040 · 84.7 · — 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for MacKenzie Gore — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sean Manaea — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Benge Pederson Seager Burger Langford Jung

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson — · 64

Corey Seager — · 60

Francisco Lindor — · 54

Juan Soto — · 61

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph in 86°F retractable

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7 mph · in

86°F

7:05p · peak

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7 mph · in

85°F

8:05p

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85°F

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-4

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84°F

10:05p

-4

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6 mph · in

82°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 86°F, wind 7 mph NE (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 61 C+ — · 21 0.247 92.7 10.7% 13.2%vs LHP 402 20.6% 25.0% 20.6% 39

2 Francisco Lindor 54 C — · 52 0.202 91.4 8.7% 15.2%vs LHP 390 15.8% 25.0% 21.9% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 45 D — COOL 115 0.167 90.4 11.3% 20.0%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 21

4 Carson Benge 45 D — WARM 116 0.144 88.7 7.9% 17.2%vs LHP 392 11.4% 25.0% 13.9% 36

5 Brett Baty 42 D — WARM 140 0.130 90.4 9.2% 0.0%vs LHP 396 6.8% 11.1% 5.7% 20

6 Bo Bichette 40 D — COOL 151 0.129 89.6 7.3% 20.0%vs LHP 390 10.6% 8.3% 9.0% 40

7 Marcus Semien 38 D — COOL 171 0.122 86.6 7.0% 8.8%vs LHP 391 9.4% 0.0% 7.7% 37

8 A.J. Ewing 36 D — · 182 0.122 89.5 7.6% 10.0%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 34

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 10 0.250 92.1 10.9% 24.8% 396 23.2% 25.0% 32.9% 11

2 Corey Seager 60 C+ — · 24 0.194 91.7 12.2% 22.2%vs LHP 397 17.7% 25.0% 22.8% 40

3 Jake Burger 58 C — WARM 32 0.195 90.2 11.5% 35.3%vs LHP 402 16.3% 16.7% 25.3% 25

4 Wyatt Langford 53 C — WARM 56 0.193 88.9 9.1% 12.1%vs LHP 401 14.7% 16.7% 20.1% 22

5 Josh Jung 49 D — WARM 92 0.155 90.6 8.7% 11.1%vs LHP 381 11.2% 25.0% 14.6% 26

6 Brandon Nimmo 47 D — COOL 105 0.147 92.1 9.9% 14.3%vs LHP 404 9.0% 0.0% 10.3% 24

7 Ezequiel Duran 46 D — COOL 110 0.166 88.8 7.9% 16.0%vs LHP 397 12.4% 0.0% 10.8% 33

8 Evan Carter 39 D — COOL 158 0.121 87.6 7.3% 0.0%vs LHP 380 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 20

9 Nicky Lopez 21 D — COOL 232 0.040 84.7 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 7.1% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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