TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.59×

TOR @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 11 mph in 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:35p

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7:35p

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8:35p

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9:35p

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10:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · -12 FIT

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 41 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 28 · vs Bassitt → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 91

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson — C ●●○○○

FADE Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 10

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●●○

2 George Springer — D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 32.5% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Scherzer — 0.236 · 93.9 · 11.2% 50.0% 32.5% F B O C+ 69

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Bassitt — 0.224 · 90.6 · 8.4% 33.3% 23.2% F B O C 57

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Scherzer — 0.242 · 91.3 · 10.8% 25.0% 27.8% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.174 · 89.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 11.0% F B O C 50

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.185 · 90.4 · 10.2% 11.1% 13.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Bassitt — 0.159 · 88.4 · 5.9% 10.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.142 · 87.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 46

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Bassitt Edge — 0.113 · 86.8 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.123 · 88.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Bassitt Edge — 0.114 · 85.3 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Bassitt — 0.096 · 90.5 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Bassitt — 0.107 · 84.1 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 30

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Bassitt — 0.107 · 86.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Chris Bassitt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Max Scherzer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Alonso Mayo Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Alonso — · 69

Kazuma Okamoto — · 57

Coby Mayo — · 63

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 11 mph in 60°F open

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14 mph · in

63°F

6:35p · peak

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14 mph · in

63°F

7:35p

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14 mph · in

63°F

8:35p

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14 mph · in

63°F

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14 mph · in

63°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.59× 60°F, wind 11 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 57 C — · 31 0.224 90.6 8.4% 26.4%vs RHP 400 19.5% 33.3% 23.2% 31

2 George Springer 41 D — COOL 151 0.159 88.4 5.9% 18.0%vs RHP 394 10.9% 10.0% 8.9% 28

3 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — WARM 223 0.096 90.5 6.1% 8.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 31

4 Nathan Lukes 32 D — COOL 225 0.113 86.8 3.7% 14.8%vs RHP 382 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% 27

5 Andres Gimenez 30 D — COOL 233 0.114 85.3 4.1% 9.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 28

6 Ernie Clement 30 D — WARM 236 0.107 84.1 3.4% 5.3%vs RHP 376 6.3% 0.0% 6.0% 36

7 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 237 0.107 86.1 3.9% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 18

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 4 0.236 93.9 11.2% 33.3%vs RHP 400 23.1% 50.0% 32.5% 31

2 Coby Mayo 63 C+ — WARM 12 0.242 91.3 10.8% 16.7%vs RHP 411 18.0% 25.0% 27.8% 33

3 Samuel Basallo 53 C — COOL 58 0.185 90.4 10.2% 26.7%vs RHP 400 13.7% 11.1% 13.2% 20

4 Gunnar Henderson 50 C — COOL 84 0.174 89.2 8.2% 16.9%vs RHP 392 14.3% 16.7% 11.0% 26

5 Colton Cowser 46 D — COOL 116 0.142 87.9 9.1% 20.3%vs RHP 412 13.6% 0.0% 9.4% 15

6 Leody Taveras 37 D — COOL 187 0.123 88.0 5.8% 11.7%vs RHP 403 4.5% 0.0% 7.7% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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