16
HRs allowed
11.3%
HR rate (pool)
12.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.35
FIP
5.65
xFIP
-0.30
FIP − xFIP gap
#23
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
43
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 43th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
17.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
63.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.3 EV · 411 ft
max EV allowed 114.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 64.3%
BRK 30.1%
OFF 5.6%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (64.3% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
36.8%
83.5
7.8°
2
-0.0
Curveball Breaking
22.5%
77.0
11.5°
2
+0.2
Cutter Hard
20.8%
81.3
21.3°
1
+1.5
Fastball Hard
6.7%
80.7
22.7°
3
+6.0
Changeup Offspeed
5.6%
92.1
11.1°
0
+0.9
Sweeper Breaking
5.4%
75.9
24.3°
0
-1.5
Slider Breaking
2.2%
83.5
17.1°
0
-2.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups142
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate11.3%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB12.1% 43
HR/9—
FIP5.35 87
xFIP5.65
FIP − xFIP-0.30 26
Barrel% allowed17.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed63.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Sinker
Hard · 36.8% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches472
Curveball
Breaking · 22.5% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches288
Cutter
Hard · 20.8% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.3 mph
Avg launch angle21.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches266
Fastball
Hard · 6.7% usage
+6.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle22.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches86
Changeup
Offspeed · 5.6% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against92.1 mph
Avg launch angle11.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches72
Sweeper
Breaking · 5.4% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against75.9 mph
Avg launch angle24.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches69
Slider
Breaking · 2.2% usage
-2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle17.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches28
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.3 EV · 411 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
8
1
110.7
2026-08-19
8
1
110.2
2026-08-14
9
0
111.8
2026-06-03
9
1
109.8
2026-05-28
9
1
107.0
2026-05-22
9
1
112.4
2026-05-16
9
2
114.0
2026-05-10
9
1
109.6
2026-05-05
9
2
107.5
2026-04-30
9
1
109.6
2026-04-29
9
0
90.0
2026-04-22
9
3
108.3
2026-04-17
9
1
107.1
2026-04-11
9
0
103.4
2026-04-05
9
1
111.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Sutter Health Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.237
Wind
4 mph from W
Temp
85°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:05p
4
85°
+12
2:05p
4
88°
+13
3:05p
6
87°
+15
4:05p
8
86°
+17
5:05p
10
85°
+18
+15
Strong green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 6 mph from SW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
325ft
avg
CF
403ft
avg
RF
325ft
avg
No short porch vs league
HRs allowed avg 411 ft · n=16
by hand — L 5 · R 1
A's temporary park (Sacramento)
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
71
5
7%
9
3
33%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 9. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Chris Bassitt
Is Chris Bassitt likely to give up a home run tonight?
Chris Bassitt pitches tonight (BAL @ ATH at Sutter Health Park). This season he has allowed 16 home runs across 16 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Chris Bassitt allowed this season?
Chris Bassitt has allowed 16 home runs across 16 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Chris Bassitt?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Chris Bassitt include Aaron Judge (2), Anthony Volpe (2), Trent Grisham (2) and 37 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.